10/11/06 FCST: OH/KY/TN

Dan Robinson

Certainly not the big oubreak we might have expected with an October system of this caliber, but a marginally chaseable setup is coming together over the mid/upper Ohio Valley region. Strong upper dynamics, strong frontal forcing, TDs in the low 60s F and possible slight backing of surface winds may support a damaging wind and slight tornado threat over Kentucky and Ohio late this afternoon.

Visible satellite showed extensive cloud cover over the risk area, but a large area of partial clearing is quickly moving toward the area of interest. The RUC suggests a tiny area of CAPE east of a Lexington-Cincinnati-Columbus line by late afternoon. Due to the close proximity of this setup (less than a 2 hour drive) I'll probably give it a shot.