10/01/04 FCST: AR, KS, MO, OK

Although the models are showing that tornadic activity is going to be pretty marginal I might jet south after my last class gets over. I am not really expecting much but what the heck. It's a Friday and you just never know!
Hmmmm... I don't know. There seems to be a lack of CAPE today, plus with the lack of daytime heating (especially if it rains in the morning and afternoon before the front passes through, like expected), our atmosphere here in KS won't become too unstable. Then again, afternoon dewpoints are predicted to be about 60+ degrees, so much it could be a maybe for me. Gotta wait for the 12Z sounding from Topeka to see what will happen.

The instability looks like it will be like around Fort Scott, Kansas. Fort Scott appears to be in the center of any instability that will happen in the KS/MO area today. Kansas City is too far north. But still, CAPEs won't probably reach a value higher than 1000J/kg. I will wait for later model runs to more detail the outlook for today.

Agreeing with Darin, tornado risk is marginal (I'm going to be surprised to see more than 1 isolated tornado from this), but severe thunderstorms are more likely from this.

So far to me, it looks like a no day for me.

As a freshman in meteorology, I am learning a lot!