2023-09-23 EVENT: OK, KS, MO

[gdlewen]

Since the SPC has posted an enhanced risk for parts of OK, KS, and MO, I hope folks will post their assessment of the severe weather potential here. I haven't been able to focus a lot of attention on it until today, since the busy season for preparing legislation for OK state government is well underway and those activities have "gotten in the way".

Two-Day Outlook:

Storm Prediction Center Mar 8, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[Matt Zumbrunn]

Sorry, life has been busy, and just now catching up. Models showed an arc of semi discrete supercells with some tornado potential. I dropped south to Yates Center to see if we would have anything worth going after. It didn't even rain. Everything formed well to the east. I wasn't the only one that guesed wrong as Timmer also targeted SE KS and was greeted with a big nothing burger. I talked to Trey from the Convective Chronicles youtube channel to see if he was going to do a post event review as it seemed like the models struggled with this setup.

 

[gdlewen]

Sorry, life has been busy, and just now catching up. Models showed an arc of semi discrete supercells with some tornado potential. I dropped south to Yates Center to see if we would have anything worth going after. It didn't even rain. Everything formed well to the east. I wasn't the only one that guesed wrong as Timmer also targeted SE KS and was greeted with a big nothing burger. I talked to Trey from the Convective Chronicles youtube channel to see if he was going to do a post event review as it seemed like the models struggled with this setup.

Thanks, Matt. I interpreted the "silence" from the group as a sign not much was expected. I really did expect, based on the CAMs, to see cells go up between I-35 and I-75. That area has some favorable terrain for chasing, but a lot of it is not, the farther east you go. I skipped the earlier activity SW of Tulsa (initiated near Bristol I think) in anticipation of better weather as predicted by the models.

By 5:30 PM CDT I was sitting in my backyard looking at AC Castellanus going up overhead, but everything just felt wrong. A couple of cells formed to my West within the next hour, but quickly bloomed to an amorphous cluster of cells that promised nothing but frustration. Except for some nice* lightning, it was a good day to sit home and "watch the castellanus".

[Oh--thanks for the mention of Convective Chronicles--I will check it out.]

* nice is such a relative term.