Well
somebody has to come in on this and reassure Brandon that he's not the Last Chaser on The Face of the Earth, I guess!
My analysis won't be my best (not that my best's ever up to much anyhow) due to the late hour, but......
Am confident that Tornado Watch #1 will be issued sometime during the day on Day 3 (Mon, Jan. 7th). It's always a nice moment when that happens...
Due to cold temps aloft and great helicity, the ETA does tend to pick up on traces of CAPE in the IL area on Monday and there is indeed a bona-fide risk for severe wx in these areas Monday. It's not unusual for 500-1,000j/kg of CAPE to get the job done in spectacular fashion and - if it's going to - this is the time of year.
I still do however feel that the more significant risk of severe wx will be seen from NErn TX, throughout most of AR, and into MO. The activity will likely start in Ern OK and NErn TX, and translate NEwds with time and overngiht onwards from 0Z Tues. The ETA tries to develop a glob of 1,500 CAPE in NErn TX by 0Z and it is entirely possible for this greater moisture to translate northeast with the system into centrl AR overnight. With the LLJ likely ramping up overnight and the upper trough looking progged to truly kick-out overnight Mon-Tues, the stage looks set for what could certainly be an interesting night for chasers and spotters who decide to venture into the Ozarks and Arklatex after dark.
I really am just enjoying seeing a highly dynamic system come onshore and I can't wait until it is sampled proper. Temperatues approaching the 70s will be seen in MY area over tomorrow and Monday, and during the day today - although the ground was still radiating freezing cold temperatures - the sky above was magnificent to behold as thick, fluffy, grey, foggy stratocu raced northeastwards, spurred on it's course by our amazing return flow. Occasionally, there'd be a tiny break in the clouds, a small scar of blue amidst the grey, and sun would strafe the hillside here in Conway. Beautiful. Brandon - I cooked up a nice batch of steamy Gulf moisture and it's on it's way to ya!
It's not unusual for severe wx threat threads that fall outside of classic chase territory (especially AR - which is a Leper as far as chasers seem to be concerned, for some reason), and happen overnight, to be somewhat downplayed or ignored - and for sure I will not be chasing as I have to work on Monday (although if the evening is exciting I will be right here with it looking for at least good lightning shots!), so I'm not that surprised that the first severe/tornado threat of 2008 looks like it will likely pass without much fanfare. I am confident, regardless, that several interesting storms producing some interesting toandoes will occur overnight Monday night somewhere in the NE TX/Arklatex/AR/SRn MO area.
KL
? As hopefully suggested in W&C, ingredients look promising for severe with good shear and moisture. Wild card is sufficient low level focusing ahead of the cold front, I think. Difficult chasing with short daylight and fast-moving cells, at best.
. We've still got 6 days for this to either shape up or totally go away...not holding my breath on it 
I've given up on the MN chase idea and am leaving the chase stuff at home, but packing the winter stuff. And the best action is now later -- the 8th and 9th. Someone else with SDS can start those threads.... 
