Warren Faidley
Supporter
Looks like an interesting set-up on Thursday and/or Friday afternoon and evening for SE portions of CA and more so, southern Arizona, per day 2-3 SPC discussions. 18z GFS is showing a small bullseye of negative LI's west of Tucson at peak. heating on Friday. However, after looking at the latest GFS and NAM, I'm thinking Thursday afternoon may actually be a better day, especially if the 6mb pressure falls occur west of Tucson, in advance of the front. NAM is showing areas of SR helicities >400 during the period. Major issue will be CAPE, but with such an insane system anything is possible. I would not be surprised to see a slight risk issued tomorrow.
Regardless of convective severe activity, the models are showing a North/South 850mb 80kt jet across the area late tomorrow afternoon. A 850mb 50kt jet on 1/19/10 yielded 45 mph surface winds and 60-79 mph gusts in the nearby mountains. Thursday and Friday will be interesting!
W.
Regardless of convective severe activity, the models are showing a North/South 850mb 80kt jet across the area late tomorrow afternoon. A 850mb 50kt jet on 1/19/10 yielded 45 mph surface winds and 60-79 mph gusts in the nearby mountains. Thursday and Friday will be interesting!
W.
Last edited by a moderator:
