09/20/05: FCST Hurricane Rita

[B Ozanne]

Movement of the eye over the past hour or so has been solidly to the northwest. So much so that the eye might pass directly over Key West. This is the best looking tropical storm I've ever seen. Some of the storm attributes on level 3 radar indicate winds over 70kts.

Edit: Just upgraded to a cat 1 as of 915est.

Edit 2: That NW movement was just a wobble, gets me everytime.

 

[Saul Trabal]

What are the water temperatures in the Gulf like? They were in the low 90s if I recall for Katrina.

 

[j_scheerer]

They look to be about 85.

 

[Jay Cazel]

Here is a list of all the buoys in the projected path of Rita

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?...p?station=42001

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?...p?station=42041

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?...p?station=42002

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?...p?station=42020

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?...p?station=42019

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?...p?station=42035

 

[Carrie Halliday]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFVS.JPG

What a perfect buzz saw shape! Well defined eye. I am not sure when the HI will move, but looks like those in the know think it will be later than sooner. I thought she may follow the HI around, and not get caught up in the trough, will she be too far S of the HI?

 

[Jay McCoy]

Originally posted by Carrie Halliday
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFVS.JPG

What a perfect buzz saw shape! Well defined eye. I am not sure when the HI will move, but looks like those in the know think it will be later than sooner. I thought she may follow the HI around, and not get caught up in the trough, will she be too far S of the HI?

The high is what will keep it south so long. soon as it gets on the back side of that high it will swing north so the impact point depends on 1 thing. How far east will the high slide. if it doesnt slide much then Houston may be on the east edge. If it slide east by 100 miles more Houston could be in the eye. My bet is just west of Houston so you will catch the NE quad (yuk).

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Jay McCoy
How far east will the high slide. if it doesnt slide much then Houston may be on the east edge. If it slide east by 100 miles more Houston could be in the eye. My bet is just west of Houston so you will catch the NE quad (yuk).

I don't think the high will make much eastward progression, considering it's cutoff, retrograding, and weakening...

See this: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/disp..._500_tmp&loop=1

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Rita just upgraded to a CAT2

 

[BrandonWhittington]

Hurricane Rita is now a Cat 2. One thing that concerns me is the ridge of high pressure of the southern United States. Forcast is that the high will shift to the east and keep Rita on a west track over the next few days. Looking at the past day water vapor, the ridge is not even moving to the east. I think this is bad news more for south Texas than LA. If the ridge does not move east as fast as they say, this would keep Rita more south.

One good thing I think out of all this, if Rita keeps gaining strength like she is, she should be at her top in the Middle of the Gulf. Hopefully, she will be on a weakening stage when she makes landafall.

 

[Justin Bailey]

pressure is continueing to drop. now down to 978 mb. i dont see anything that would keep Rita from being a cat. 3 in the next 24 hrs. i just wouldn't expect her to get much stronger than that because of all that dry air. the question isn't IF she'll weaken due to dry air entrainment, but WHEN? how long will she keep the dry air out of her core? the dry air is the only inhibiting factor i can see that will keep Rita from being a cat.4-5 at landfall, but its better than praying for an ERC to weaken it like we were for Katrina.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Satellite presentation continues to improve, with the eye clearing out on visible, pressure down to 976 and the 18z SHIPS now brings Rita to 125kts by 48hr followed by steady weakening. The models have tended to shift southward over the past couple of runs, with the exception of the UKMET, and are now fairly well clustered near the TPC track. The big question now becomes, how will Rita fare with all of that dry air in the Gulf? There is little doubt that she will continue to exhibit moderate to rapid intensification through at least the next 12-24hrs (until the first ERC commences), but after that it is still very much up in the (very dry) air.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

News alert: We've opened up a Rita forum just now, however we do support (and encourage) quality posts in Map Room, too. Thanks!

Tim

 

[Glen Romine]

I guess I'll probably regret saying it - but even with the best outflow I have a hard time seeing this storm attain cat 5 status. In fact, I'm wondering if it will reach cat 4. None of the model guidance suggests that intensity, and there isn't that much in the way of deep, warm water in the projected path to support the storm reaching that strength. I see a cat 3 storm most likely - which is nevertheless significant, but I'd hate to see all the great warning from Katrina go down the tubes with an overly dramatic forecast from Rita. Of course, I don't work for NHC, an those guys know a heck of a lot more, but still I just don't see it.

Glen

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

My thoughts exactly Glen. I was glancing at ocean water content/SSTs earlier today,and while they are adequate for a strong cane, I just don't see the oomph needed for a Cat 5.

Aaron

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I agree with Glen -- I'm not sure we'll see Cat 5 status with Rita. SSTs are warm, but TCHP in the Gulf isn't THAT impressive (not anywhere near what it is in the Caribbean.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/wo...W/2005262go.jpg

But how could Katrina reach cat 5 then? Notice the tongue of higher TCHP from the Cuba-Yucatan pass north-northwestward toward New Orleans... Katrina's path shows that it stayed over this deep warm water for much of it's lifetime, particularly during it's Cat 5 stage. Rita may take a path that puts it over the local minimum in TCHP located near 91-92W 25N (in fact, the official path takes it basically right over this area). Then again, SSTs are warmer in the western Gulf, so the TCHP may not be as important if the storm continues on moderate clip (in which case the depth of the warm water may not be as important I'd think):

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data...a/gulfmex.c.gif

Shear doesn't look to be a problem until near landfall. The 0z NAM shows a slightly less amplified upper-level trough compared to the 12z run, which seems current given that the 12z NAM was too amplified, as evidenced by THIS GRAPHIC (blue is NAM, black is RAOB analysis). The NAM also forecasts stronger upper-level ridging relative to the GFS, and more elongated ridging versus the NOGAPS (SEE THIS PAGE, where black is GFS, blue is NAM, and red is NOGAPS ). The recent model runs seem to indicate a more westward track the first 48 hours, followed by a sharper (more abrupt) turn to the NW ~18-24 hours before landfall.

It's also worth noting that the GFDL has been consistently forecasting Cat 3-4 status for the past several runs in the 12-18 hour forecast time. Yesterday morning, the GFDL was forecasting Rita to strengthen to Cat 4 (with ~145mb central pressure) by the time it passed Key West. Obviously, the rate of strengthening forecast by the GFDL has not verified, so I'd be hesitant in taking its forecast of Cat 4 in 12-18 hours.