09/20/05: FCST Hurricane Rita

[evan anderson]

S FL - Local Coverage

Folks here in SW FL are just starting to notice this one.

Outer spiral bands starting to show up on the local cable channel's satellite view.

Not liking where BAM takes the track.

 

[MClarkson]

Ignore the BAM

Well the models are all shifting north... the 06Z GFDL plasters key west at 933mb... and then tracks the storm up towards louisiana. The ECMWF shows a very good upper level outflow pattern in the late term, but also stays further south and the other intensity models indicate slight weakening long term. The GFS progs some really dry 500mb level air around texas in ~5 days, but intensity estimates are pretty erroneous in such an extended timeframe. Regardless, the threat to kew west and the western gulf is significant.

The keys may not be chaseable if route 1 becames all lanes north, but potential in the vicinity of houston might be shaping up.

 

[David Wolfson]

Unfortunately the eastward migration of the gulf coast anticyclone is verifying -- oy. And, oy, R looks like it's really cranking up this morning with deep, persistent, expanding convection circling the core. And... in the latest hi-res just in... the ole' radial gravity waves topping what's becoming the CDO signalling what I believe to be rapid intensification.

Hopefully God smiles and R is "only" a Cat 1 when it crosses the Keys, but all the signs point to something more like the GLD 1935 storm than a little blow. If I were anywhere in the Keys, I'd be boarding up and moving out right now, which is what I have a hunch the experts will be saying in a few hours.

The longer-term model tracks are probably IMO now flipping a bit too far toward tracking R north. A little faster and a little straighter toward some place like Freeport (hopefully far enough south of Houston/Galveston) looks like the spot this morning -- oy. Can we say $4/gallon gasoline? FWIW.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

19/0000z Model Solutions
19/1200z Model Solutions
(images from http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/gui...dance/index.htm)

There has been a significant northward shift in many of the model tracks for Rita, unfortunately, which puts a number of large population areas at risk. The satellite presentation continues to improve and 'rapid intensification' (>30kt increase in 24hrs), beginning later today, is quite possible. I definitely agree that the FL Keys are not the place to be for the next several days. What is up with this hurricane season?!?

EDIT: Pressure has continued to drop all day and is currently down to 994mb.

 

[B Ozanne]

The northward trend with each model run should be on everyone's mind. I started noticing this trend last night, but thought it was a little pre-mature. BTW...Houston is the 4th largest city in the country.

Historically speaking the Florida Straits have seen some explosive development in storms past. The Labor Day storm bombed out from a Cat 1 to a 5 in 36 hours, on a similar storm track to Rita.

 

[Justin Turcotte]

Rita is looking more impressive on the space pics. Latest IR is hinting at eye development with warmer tops in the center of the CDO. Key West looks to be close to the path of the cyclone. If an eye develops soon then the intesnsity near Key West could be stronger than the TPC forecast. I couldn't help but notice the 12z GFS takes the eye of Rita right over Galveston and downtown Houston (of course the models are perfect 5 days out... no) .

Aside: I'll start a B&G threat about potential Rita impacts. Oil up $3.50/bl today, Gas up 20 cents. Lots of refineries in the path of this potential beast.

 

[David Wolfson]

To my non-expert eye, R has gone through an interesting phase in the last hour wherein the large burst of convection circling the core got a little ahead of the upper outflow and collapsed on itself a bit in the northern semicircle -- rather like a 100 mile diameter overshooting supercell top. The intense core convection is now reforming in a more compact form.

Mandatory evacuation is now out for the whole Keys.

 

[BrandonWhittington]

I totally agree with David. Looking at the latest IR sat, convection continues to explode around the center of the Storm. Rita in my opinion looks like it should be at hurricane strength in the next hour or so. The deep convection has become more semetrical over the last few hours or so. I'm really concerned that the TPC is under estimating the forcast of Rita. Looking at forcast models, there will be nothing at all to prohibit more strengthening of the system.

Also, I feel that the trough on the west coast will not pull the system as north as the TPC is forcasting. I really think that the system will stay on a west-northwest track and all the way over the Gulf and put people around Corpus Cristi in the path. I know that it is still a long ways away, But, I think that Rita will make landfall as a Cat 4 or 5.

One thing to note, everybody is blaming 50 years of global warming for the large numbers of hurricanes this year. 1935 season was a lot longer the 50 years ago.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

1995, 2003 and 2004 weren't so long ago...

Back on topic - pressure's down to 993mb as of 2302z, and, after a brief plateau, it appears that the strengthening trend has recommenced. A deep burst of convection is occurring over the center and I suspect that Rita is already a hurricane. I see no reason why Rita will not exhibit moderate/rapid intensification overnight and reach at least 70kts by 20/0300z and 85kts by 20/1500z. This is definitely a serious situation for Key West and eventually somewhere along the northern or western Gulf Coast.

 

[Alex Lamers]

This really doesn't look good for whereever Rita plops herself after her journey through the Gulf. It is going to head through "the path of least resistance" as far as limiting SST's go. There are cooler waters over the Eastern Gulf but the stretch from the Florida Strait into the Central Gulf is comparatively warm. SHIPS takes this to 117 mph at 72 hours and that is before it interacts with the > 30ºC SST water over the western Gulf.

http://www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp4.htm

Secondly shear is just absolutely bottoming out over the Gulf with 700 mb flow generally around 5 knots per most global models. Trends analyzed on overall shear suggest a decreasing trend on already low amounts.

Finally recent convective burst seems favorable for intensification and I would anticipate they would bump this up to a category 1 hurricane in the one of the next two advisories.

What model to go with for intensity? I would actually say SHIPS, the GFDL is unreasonably inflated. After 72 hrs though, I think that this storm could rival Katrina's strength when it was over open water with plenty of fuel and nothing to stop it until it hits land.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[BrandonWhittington]

Shear forcast shows almost no shear in the gulf of mexico over the next few days, Scary feeling for south Texas. There is no reason at all this could not reach a cat 5 before landfall!!!!!

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Well, still a TS as of 11pm, but I really have a hard time believing this is the case; we'll know more within an hour as a recon flight will be arriving shortly. However, there has been a very interesting change in Rita's satellite presentation over the last 90 min - the areal (sp?) coverage has decreased by about 40% and is now taking on a buzzsaw-ish shape. I have a pit in my stomach and am thinking that Rita is about to go crazy. I hope Key West is completely empty (including any TWC/media crews that attempt to cover this) when she roars past.

Anyone else thinking the NHC will pull one of their classic 30-minutes-since-the-last-advisory-but-new-advisory-based-on-recon-data shenanegans?

 

[BrandonWhittington]

Could not agree with you more Sam. Rita is looking very impressive on satellite images. If it is not a hurricane now, it will be at anytime. Classic shape, classic outflow starting to develop. It could be a cat 2 by Tuesday if it keeps gaining strength at the rate it is going.

 

[Justin Bailey]

everybody seems to be jumping on the same train with this storm. talking like its going to be another Katrina. No im not an expert on hurricanes, but i know that the odds of two storms of that calliber hitting in the same year are highly unlikely. i know right now everything looks like Rita's going to go crazy and become another insanely intense storm, and there is nothing out there to keep it from doing so. Keep in mind however that its still 4-5 days away. there's still alot of time for something to change. And i'd imagine its gonna be fairly hard for a tropical system to become a cat.5 with all that dry air around it. thats got to help hinder development somewhat right? I dont know whats gonna happen. nobody does. but im gonna say that it will be strong cat.3 borderline cat.4 . i think cat.5 is highly unlikely. especially if all that dry air sticks around.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Originally posted by Justin Bailey
but im gonna say that it will be strong cat.3 borderline cat.4 . i think cat.5 is highly unlikely. especially if all that dry air sticks around.

I agree with you on the potential for this to ruin the storm's potential in the long term, but I don't see much to prevent it from going gangbusters in the next 24-36 hrs. No doubt, it is a hurricane at this time, taking on that "buzz saw" appearance (as Sam noted).

I think it will undergo a period of strong to rapid intensification within that time period, after which it will peak and probably struggle against dry air entrainment. Checking the sounding at Key West, it looks like there is a goodly amount of dry air in the upper troposphere, so hopefully that will keep Rita in check. I expect a Category Three hurricane by tomorrow, and a slow weakening thereafter. We shall see, though.

Gabe