09/06/05 FCST: Hurricane Ophelia

[Jason Toft]

Looks like the disturbance off the east coast of FL and over the Bahamas has been upgraded to TD 16 as of the 11am EST advisory, which is #1. Looks like it'll move NW and make landfall as Tropical Storm Ophelia sometime this weekend north of Daytona Beach but south of the FL/GA border. I personally think it'll be a good ol' rainmaker, but that might not be a good thing. Watch out for floods! :shock:

If it continues to develop, Ophelia will be our 15th named storm of the season. Wow...just wow.

Thanks all.

 

[Morgan Palmer]

Not much time, but the GFDL has the storm drifting slowly west on the southern rim of the high and making landfall in Louisiana. Ha ha. That's just one model, and it's had problems this year. Though as I recall it did pretty well with Katrina, and she initialized in the same vicinity.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Sixteen has been disorganized all day (even appearing to degenerate to an open wave at some point) though now it appears that the center of TD16 has reformed farther north and underneath intermittant bursts of deep convection. Based on radar data from KMLB, I estimate the center to be located about 90 miles east of Melbourne.

The steering currents influencing the depression are quite weak, so the slow forward movement should continue for another day or so before moving slowly to the W or NW. This should give the system ample time to organize itself over the warm waters of the gulf stream.

There has been a significant decrease in wind shear over the past 24 hours and upper level winds are now very favorable for further development. Waters are warm (~30C), there is good upper level divergence, and the only real inhibiting factor that I can find is the slow forward speed and the associated upwelling, which will become a concern sooner rather than later. That being said, the depression has actually decreased in organization today, so we'll have to wait and see what this system will do.

As far as intensity guidance is concerned, the models are all over the place with SHIPS bringing (Ophelia) to 66kts in about 3 days, whereas the GFDL shows little in the way of intensification. If the depression can get its act together in the short term conditions are favorable for strengthening, but until consistent organization begins, heavy rains are the main threat.

 

[Warren Eckels]

Jesus, Mary and Joseph!

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...0516_model.html

Weather Underground has a map showing the model runs, and as you said GFDL is the only one that approaches Louisiana. Unfortunately GFDL fared best in verification analysis and the second-place model, NOGAPS, is not on the Weather Underground chart.

I really hope the GFDL is wrong this time, since it keeps Ophelia over the Gulf for at least 36 hours and aims the storm toward south-central Louisiana, just west of Katrina's worst. While many refugees went to Houston, others went to Baton Rouge and points west in Louisiana.

 

[Jason Toft]

TD 16 has been upgraded to Ophelia. It is still a weak tropical storm with only 40 mph winds, but it's looking a lot better organized than last night. It's developing banding features and the main convection around the center is looking like a comma.

As for the newest computer models from Weather Underground...the GFDL and the UKMET have it going west now and right across central FL. The NHC in their discussion states:
From NHC Discussion #4

ONLY THE
GFDL...SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAM...AND ECMWF MODELS TAKE OPHELIA
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. HOWEVER...THEY DO SO ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AND ALSO AS A VERY
WEAK SYSTEM. GIVEN THAT OPHELIA IS ALREADY WELL EAST OF THOSE MODEL
FORECASTS...AND THAT 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN RISING MORE QUICKLY
ALONG THE GULF COAST RATHER THAN FARTHER NORTH...SUGGESTS THAT THE
GFDL AND ECMWF MOELS ARE BUILDING TOO MUCH RIDGING TOO THE NORTH OF
OPHELIA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.

So, while those two models have it hanging a hard left to cross central FL, the rest of the models have it taking a shallow right and, well, "Pullin' a Jeanne."

I kinda hope this storm doesn't waste too much time out there looping around the Bahamas, which are already pretty battered from Katrina and one other, I think.

Does anyone plan on chasing it if it makes landfall somewhere on the East Coast of FL?

Jason

 

[Andrew Khan]

This storm is still very unorganized, and has yet to form an eye, and I doubt it will. But it has gotten quite a bit stronger, from what I can tell. I would not see any reason to chase it...it's so unorganized, and it only has 40 mph winds...I would say when it comes ashore the tornado threat will be minimal, but later on then maybe. Is it developing outer bands now? It acts like it's just standing still, like lingering off the coast of FL, it's been lingering there about....two days it seems.

 

[Michael Auker]

Looks like Ophelia is intensifying this afternoon; it now has an eye which is seemingly becoming better defined with each radar update. Pressure down to 997 mb.

 

[mikedeason]

Originally posted by Andrew Khan
This storm is still very unorganized, and has yet to form an eye, and I doubt it will.

As of this writing, while satellite representation is not overly impressive, Ophelia certainly has a VERY discernable eye on the 88D from MLB and appears to be moving slowly WNW.

Regards,

Mike

 

[Jason Toft]

Thia may be a bad case of not knowing what the heck I'm talking about, but i almost looks to me like the extreme eastern edge of the circulation center is exposed on the last three frames of the satellite loop. As you said, Mike, it doesn't look all that impressive on the satellite loop, but the radar is awesome. It has some nice banding features. I do think it'll strengthen, ya know, it is sitting right on top of the Gulf Stream!

Jason

 

[Andrew Khan]

Originally posted by mikedeason+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(mikedeason)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Andrew Khan

This storm is still very unorganized, and has yet to form an eye, and I doubt it will.

As of this writing, while satellite representation is not overly impressive, Ophelia certainly has a VERY discernable eye on the 88D from MLB and appears to be moving slowly WNW.

Regards,

Mike[/b]

Right, and I, so happened, to be talking about SAT. SAT's view is very unimpressive, and while looking at normal RAD, I see a portion of an eye, where as earlier I did not..

 

[HAltschule]

Well, as of 00:43z I do not see an eye on the IR satellite floater. I do see the 88d from Melbourne, FL showing a distinct center, but I don't believe this an "eye".

I noticed that there has been a huge flare up of convection over the past hour. It doesn't appear to be organizing significantly on doppler and this is likely due to the fact that it is sitting and spinning over the same place. With the upwelling of colder water it's bringing to the surface, I would be very surprised to see significant strengthening in this area.

But we will see what happens. I have seen stranger things happen....

 

[John Gnuechtel]

I just got back in for tonight and checked the radar loop from Melbourne. It seems to me that Ophelia has taken a pretty distinct turn in the general direction the Cape Canaveral over the length of the radar loop I have here (3 hours). Didn't exactly expect this one, but I'm not all that surprised either, given the aparent 50/50 chance of a turn towards us.

 

[John Gnuechtel]

Edit: <Link Removed>

So I guess the deal is that with a storm that moves this slow, wobbles can last a very long time compared to the traditional setup. The long wobble toward the Cape ended, and she actually appears to have dropped a few miles south, putting Ophelia in almost the exact same spot she was at this time yesterday. Radar presentation is pretty darn good looking this morning, with a trend toward a tightening circulation over the last few hours. I guess I don't see any reason not to believe she'll sit around there today too. The northward jog in the official forecast hasn't panned out, so while I understand that they like to maintain some continuity with the forecasts, I don't think Ophelia is going to be very cooperative.

 

[Steve Miller]

I will go with a 65/35 approach.
65% says the heat ridge over the mid-east will influence/steer Ophelia westward but very, very slowly. Might be late tomorrow(Fri.) evening before a definitive move is made either way. If the storm manages to cross the south-central Florida peninsula, perhaps the western Florida Panhandle/Alabama Coast area would be a potential target given the massive high that will eventually be "behind the wheel" of the Gulf version of Ophelia.
35% says to side with the models which all steer the storm away from the states and any real threat other than outer band rainfall.

 

[HAltschule]

More relaible models seem to be coming on board with a track out to sea and a loop south and then west back to Florida's East Coast as a much stronger system. It will be interesting to see if it happens, but that has been the trend.

The NHC advisories are not changed because they have very low conifdence in the track and basically split the track down the middle of what the models forecast. Interesting approach but well understood why. Ophelia will continue to wobble and perhaps reform a center of circulation every so often, as it has done this morning...a little south of its earlier position.

Still not looking for any significant change in strength due to upwelling of colder waters and slight shear.