Andrew Pritchard
EF5
Not surprised no one has brought this up since it's far from an ideal chase setup but wanted to open it to discussion. Also figured being such an odd setup as without Gustav there'd really be no upper level support to speak of in the area as the prolonged quiet period had gotten myself out of the chasing mode that it was worth alerting others in the area who may have the day free.
Gustav remnants are going to make their way into Illinois tomorrow afternoon and evening and bring with them quite the system. Instability will obviously be lacking with all the moisture the system has, but shear should be pretty outstanding. Basically, it's March all over again.
WRF has excellent low level shear, with a SSE 70-80 knot streak at 850 mb, under 50 knots from the WSW at 500 mb. Surface winds back pretty strongly near the surface low and along the surface warm front which should be in the central/eastern Illinois area by 0Z. Instability is the kicker with forecasts generally <1000 j/kg.
Luckily, with such an iffy forecast period home here in Champaign looks as good as any spot. That's the probably the reason I'm the only who cared enough to post on here. I'll probably be watching the Interstate 57 corridor from Champaign south, and maybe a hair west of there for any maximized areas of instability. Should we get some peaks of sunshine, we could get a few low-topped northward moving supercells and some isolated tornado reports.
Gustav remnants are going to make their way into Illinois tomorrow afternoon and evening and bring with them quite the system. Instability will obviously be lacking with all the moisture the system has, but shear should be pretty outstanding. Basically, it's March all over again.
WRF has excellent low level shear, with a SSE 70-80 knot streak at 850 mb, under 50 knots from the WSW at 500 mb. Surface winds back pretty strongly near the surface low and along the surface warm front which should be in the central/eastern Illinois area by 0Z. Instability is the kicker with forecasts generally <1000 j/kg.
Luckily, with such an iffy forecast period home here in Champaign looks as good as any spot. That's the probably the reason I'm the only who cared enough to post on here. I'll probably be watching the Interstate 57 corridor from Champaign south, and maybe a hair west of there for any maximized areas of instability. Should we get some peaks of sunshine, we could get a few low-topped northward moving supercells and some isolated tornado reports.
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