08/16/04 FCST: Midwest

[Larry J. Kosch]

Opening a FCST thread this a.m. as the SPC has placed a SLIGHT risk for the Midwest. That would include the western 2/3 of IA, southeast portion of NE and the northern tier of KS. Place your forecasts here.

Update: SPC has modified its SLIGHT risk area. Looks all of KS and most of the southeast portion of NE has been taken out of the picture. Only the eastern tier counties in NE, most of IA and the southern portion of MN is in the SLIGHT risk area now.

 

[JHadorn]

I'm not expecting anything more exciting than a nice summer shower today.

We'll see. Maybe things will look better by this evening.

 

[JHadorn]

Things are looking a little better. If the cap can be borked I think I might see a little action today.

It's all in the waiting now.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I'd watch the area around Sioux City for now. I need to get my flying eagle to track right down the MO river because Neal Ras wants me to get a tornado on each side of the river at the same time. I think it can be done today.

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/mesoana...ysis/s3/ttd.gif

An ok little dry push west of that area moving ese with an ok cu field east of Sioux City. SFC low centered over Sioux Falls at 19z. Not expecting too much today, but hey, those are often the best days.

 

[Zach Bailey]

Helicities and shears look good further east in IA. If something can initiate a little further upstream from that then we might be looking at a possible tornado or two. What's your guy's target for initiation?

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Heading to somewhere north of Norfolk NE now......

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

I'd watch the area around Sioux City for now. I need to get my flying eagle to track right down the MO river because Neal Ras wants me to get a tornado on each side of the river at the same time. I think it can be done today.

Get yer boat, boah. Beers on me at the Anchor Inn...

 

[mikegeukes]

New MCD is up for the area that H is chasing.

AN AREA EXTENDING FROM SERN SD/NERN NEB INTO SWRN MN AND NWRN IA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2020.html

Latest Visible Satellite you can see some Cu that have develop within the last hour.
http://128.121.203.158/H07KOMAVIS.jpg
http://weather.cod.edu/satellite/1km/Siouxland.gif

Sunset times:
828 PM CDT Norfolk NE
828 PM CDT Sioux Falls SD
824 PM CDT Sioux City IA

Mike

 

[mikegeukes]

Just issued:

WW 755 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 162230Z - 170400Z

Mike