07/10/05 TALK: Major Hurricane Emily

[Brandon Clement]

1AM cdt Emily was still at 90mph, but that is about to change. She has just started wrapping some deep convection around her eyewall and is about to explode. My guess is she will be pushing towards a category 3 storm in 24 hours. She has also made her turn heading due west. I think S. Tx is out of the woods now.

 

[Kevin Walter]

Not sure about S TX being out of the woods. I'm in South Padre with the TTU Hurricane Intercept Team. Looks like we may have a wobble or two bringing it just a nudge farther north. While the eye still will probably make landfall in Mexico, we may experience right-front eyewall here. We'll be deploying our array of 10m towers within the hour.

Wish us luck!

 

[Brandon Clement]

WOW! She is stll at 90mph, but no way that will last any longer. She has also doubled in size in the last 6 hours and is really starting to look healthy! Good luck Kevin, looks like you will catch a little action since Emily has become so much larger.

 

[Thomas Loades]

The NHC says she's still a strong cat. 1 right now, but I think she looks at least a mid-range cat. 2 — the eye is visible, the outflow is more sharply defined, there's obvious convection almost right around the eye (some of which is pretty intense on the IR). It looks like the eye will still cross the coast in Mexico, but not by a huge amount.

 

[Edward Ballou]

Tornado watch just issued for southern Texas as the outer rain bands come ashore. Bound to be a fun time. If you're down there, please be careful. Good luck too!

On a side note, I hope it takes that northerly track and comes back around through the plains. It'd be an excellent chance to see some severe weather.

 

[MClarkson]

here she goes... 959 mb with really solid outflow.

id expect at least a 3 at landfall.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot... latest recon has Emily at 942mb. 17mb drop in a couple of hours. Uh... whoa. Can't wait to hear the verbage of the next NHC discussion.

 

[Jay McCoy]

She is really getting nasty fast... special update expected soon from NHC but at 4:45pm cdt winds are now at 120MPH which is CAT3. That is a fast increase and a hurricane intensifying at landfall is much worse than one dying like Dennis did.

Brownsville may really dodge a bullet.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Originally posted by Ryan McGinnis
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot... latest recon has Emily at 942mb. 17mb drop in a couple of hours. Uh... whoa. Can't wait to hear the verbage of the next NHC discussion.

That's 28 mb since the 12 pm public advisory! Yowsa! I guess it's safe to say that it has a good chance of becoming Cat. 4. In fact, the central pressure right now almost reflects a Cat 4 intensity...of course, we'll have to wait for the winds to respond, but I'm sure that will happen in short order. Brownsville is not quite out of the woods.

Gabe

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Are we looking at another Gilbert 1988 ??

 

[Aric Cylkowski]

Would this make this storm "Emily, Daughter of Gilbert" or "Gilbert II"?

 

[Owen Shieh]

Either Emily is doing a looonnngg, painstaking trochoidal loop, or it's being lazy and stalling out. This isn't good for anybody along the coast there. It gives it more of a chance to wobble either north or south. The 00Z models are now calling for a landfall after daybreak.

 

[MClarkson]

I cant wait to see the 11pm discussion for this chaos.

A stalled cane can move rather unpredictably at low speed... so brownsville definetly isnt in the clear yet... the length of time over water is increased so that helps the storm but upwelling will become a factor eventually.

Why does a hurricane chug along in generally a straight line for days on end, with the models in good agreement, and all of a sudden just stop?

 

[Owen Shieh]

It's all just a matter of steering currents. The TUTT low to the southwest of it for the last few days has dissipated. If you notice on water vapor imagery, the westerlies/trough just to the NW of it has nothing separating it from Emily. The TUTT is gone. So now, upper-level steering currents are shifting form southeast to northeast, in response to the upper ridge building in from the SE United States. Meanwhile, the low-level easterlies still haven't budged. They've been persistent the whole time. So it's all just a matter of balancing a chaotic fluid. Right now, Emily is simply in a weak steering flow...waiting for the surge of upper-level NE flow to commence. Or (god forbid), the trough diving in unexpectedly and shoving this thing more NNW. However, it should still go into Mexico WNW or W at its current rate. The westerlies/trough to its NW shouldn't be changing too much to cause any heart attacks for those who are forecasting this thing to NOT go into Texas.

 

[MClarkson]

I kindof see what you are talking about. im looking at 500mb heights and see a ridge back over the US southeast and a high over the southwest. The storm isnt exactly between them though. South of both there should still be some semblance of easterly flow. I was going over the last gfdl from 1800 and it was progging a pretty constant degree/6hour speed throughout landfall.

Ahead of the storm on WV I see some westerlies... which along with land interaction could be detrimental to the western section of the storm.