07/08/04 FCST: Northern Plains

[Amos Magliocco]

Aren't 18Z soundings cool? That's a pretty stout capping inversion. Glancing very quickly at the surface plot, I don't see the convergence or other lifting mechanism to break that at the moment--perhaps something more on the way? LLJ is marginal. I don't know the setup too well beyond looking at models yesterday. Have not looked at current obs much at all today.

Extreme instability, obviously.

Maybe a nocturnal show?

 

[Anonymous]

Nebraska/Kansas Border

heading down around the Hubbel, NE - Chester, NE area.

 

[Glen Romine]

Looks like things are trying to start going out west, off the higher terrain of WY and CO - and also along the psuedo dryline-cold front intersection across NE CO, east of Sterling - which should be of particular interest as it is near 65 dewpoints, easterly sfc winds and marginal deep layer shear. Maybe today will earn a nowcast thread despite the bitterly strong cap for central to eastern NE.

Glen

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

In Albion NE heading to somewhere west of Burwell to north of North Platte to play the boundary showing up on radar. I'd think before too long we'd get some cu on sat to help out, but who knows.

The warm front is getting annoying though as it really doesn't want to lift north. What a tough day.

 

[J.B. Dixon]

You said it, Mike. Well, obviously, we're all at the mercy of the cap here in Cent/SE Nebraska. SPC is holding out a smidge of hope, and looking at conditions, if it's going to happen, it'll be along the NE/KS border.......92 in Salina now, with 6000 CAPE, LI's up to 12, Craven Sig. Svr. putting a bullseye on the border from Concordia to Hebron......even with all of the good stuff, the 18z soundings were depressing though.

Sit tight......we can wait this one out.

 

[mikegeukes]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL 900 PM MDT.

Read more:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0592.html

Mike

 

[James McCormick]

The 18 Z Soundings were too far north for a real sample of the warm sector. Am I just not finding the 18 Z TOP sounding, or did they really not have a chance to send a baloon up?

Interesting field on the visible imagery from Hastings-Holdrege in SC Nebraska. I like the Hebron area eventually, but right now am thinking the initiation point will be a bit to the west. Cap holding strong per observation and mesoanalysis, but I think that I am going to head west out of Lincoln pretty darned soon to see if anything is going to happen in SC Nebraska. I really like that 84/73 with SE in winds in Hastings.

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

Changed Target

Blew off the SE NE area went north per APR and just checking data in Winner SD. About to blast west to the nice cell moving up this way.

Doug

 

[Dan Robinson]

Mistakenly posted here what was intended to go in the NOW thread.

 

[JHadorn]

I'm goint to sit tight and watch the Doppler. Everything looks fairly well c®apped out here.

Cumulus is trying to form but it dies out rather quickly.

 

[JHadorn]

ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND WARM FRONT OVER N-CNTRL KS INTO S-CNTRL AND SERN NEB MAY RESULT
IN LOCAL CAP REMOVAL...

Maybe there is hope yet.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Yep, not surprised. I'm glad (lucky) I didn't try and make the long haul.

Note that the tornado that occurred during daylight was up in northwestern NE in decent 500mb flow and with supporting upper winds...well that and there was actually convection. As was the concern, most of the area never went and the cap won this time.

My final target would have been between the northwest NE area with lower Cinh, sfc convergence, upper jets, 500 / 700mb flow and the southeastern NE area with higher cape, instability, and better sfc to 850 winds. As it was progged by 0z for these lower winds to move further west and back some I figured somewhere between Scottsbluff, Ogallala, and north of Whitman. Center of that would have been a bit south of Ellsworth. That still would have put me aways from the actual tornado location in Dawes county so not sure I would have got it. As I recall none of these cells looked to discreet initially so it would have been tough to pick the correct one. Oh yeah I looked at the 0-6km shear reading for the area of the tornado earlier and I seem to recall it was something like 50kts to 60kts up there - so fairly decent value.