07/08/04 FCST: Northern Plains

Larry J. Kosch

As requested by Mike Hollingshead, a FCST thread for 07/08/04 has been started. Post your forecast discussions here. Thanks. 8)
 
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/etaUS_...2_thetae_78.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/etaUS_...2_thetae_84.gif

Get that trend to change and get that to yank itself nw into the area in nc SD and there could be a very nice show up there Thursday afternoon. I don't exactly understand why it's doing what it's doing with the sfc flow, but it is out there a ways. So if I'm going to ignore anything it will of course be the sfc.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/etaUS_..._3km_hel_84.gif

Sfc and 850 flow changes a bit and this should go nw with it, and the instability and would be setting right under this.....

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/etaUS_..._500_spd_84.gif

It's wanting to push some sfc feature east, then between 18 and 0z it starts to back the sfc winds.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/etaUS_...2_thetae_72.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/etaUS_...2_thetae_78.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/etaUS_...2_thetae_84.gif

Again.... I myself do not get this and beings it's so far out it might be more realistic to think we could take that 18z frame out of the middle there and assume a good se flow all day taking that juice much further nw. That would be GREAT.

Thoughts, reasoning? With the strong 500mb winds coming out would this result in a sfc reflection briefly?

For the cape lovers out there......

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/etaUS_...S_0_cape_84.gif

I'm placing that centered over PIR for my model....lol. And all that helicity is going with it.

Mike
 
Nevermind I see what it's doing. You can see the wave it kicks out. It shows up well at 700 and 850mb.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/etaUS_..._850_spd_72.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/etaUS_..._850_spd_78.gif

I hope it doesn't happen, but if it does I'd be sure to be on it.

I just want to be west further under this with some instability too...

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/etaUS_..._250_spd_78.gif

Plenty of speed at 500mb though with the lead wave kicking out.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/etaUS_..._500_spd_78.gif

I guess if I can imagine the cape being more nw without any lead disturbance I can imagine it being further north with the lead disturbance. Just stay west of northern MN though!

Also..... Wednesday could be a pretty nice day too in southern SD down into NE if anyone wants to start a thread.
 
By the looks of it, for us in Canada, the best bet is gonna be southern Manitoba on Thursday. That's gonna be tough to get to for me so I'm looking at maybe chasing Wednesday afternoon unless this will be the "storm of the year" type of system (which I doubt).

Someone give me a reason to take the day off work and maybe I will make a day of it on Thursday. I'd rather chase close to home, but if tornado warnings begin early in the day, I will be kickin myself for not going. :?

Jared
 
After tonight's 0Z run, which is very simlar to the previous solution, I agree with that Thursday deserves serious attention. I also noted that the 84 hour output shows the main system digging in and organzing a dry line at 12Z Friday morning. A two-day show is worth the drive for me if the solutions hold up.

I guess the most remarkable features right now are the strong dynamics aloft (though southern SD could be in a more favorable region relative to the jet I suppose) and the extreme instability. The warm front in ND is a possible play as well, though low level wind fields taper off up there per the 0Z. Have to see how it shapes up.
 
Thurs/Fri Setup

Keeping up with the model output for Thursday & Friday's potential severe wx setup, ETA's been wonderfully consistent in the past few runs with the extreme intabilites (>5500 j/kg over e. central/northeast NE) and a *tropical* moisture regime over a large area from southeast SD, all of eastern NE, western IA, & most of ne/n.central KS. Coupled with the extreme instability, the way the dynamics are setting up later this week (sfc winds backing over the whole area & 850s strong from the south), I wouldn't be surprised if SPC upgraded to a MDT risk over eastern NE & s.central/southeast SD in the next Day-2. At this time, the only factor that concerns me is how far north & west the 500mb trough stays. The areas with the most instability seem too displaced from the strongest mid-level winds for any supercells that do form to tap into the upper support they'll need to stay strong. Hopefully though, the ETA will change it's mind about that in the next day, and we'll have a nice jet streak plowing into all that instability. :p
 
I'm hoping that instability will meander down into southeastern NE. I'd much prefer to do some local stuff than take Ye Olde Bucket of Rusted Metal outside of any area further than a few counties over.
 
Too much explaining for a late night....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
 
SPC for Friday

UH-OH!! :shock: Looks like the SPC has pushed the "much-anticipated" Northern Plains action back to Friday. The SLIGHT risk for the Northern Plains is now listed in the Day Three box. That means a prolonged chance for storms in the Central Plains. Better change your chase plans. :roll:
 
uhhh its listed as slight for the day two and day three.. Why would anyone change their chasing plans?
 
KFSD seems to agree with the projection. See below

“A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.â€￾

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/ne/special.html
 
Perhaps we might see some local Omaha area action. I was out of town during the big Hallam storm that came through the area.. but perhaps this could be a good show :)
 
http://www.wxcaster.com/modelskewt.php3?mo...&STATIONID=kgri

12z eta run for grand island. I'd think anywhere in ne NE or se SD should work. ETA keeps blowing up this convective bomb in ec NE but this is getting too far south of the better mid-upper flow for my liking. I hope this takes place further nw and also that the low levels improve. Almost too much backing further north. I would suspect a big ol back building day could be in the works if this happens further south. That front needs to get it's butt north that is all there is to this. If I had to go somewhere now it'd be Norfork Nebraska just to stay south. It'll be easier to fix the goof from the south then it would from the north tomorrow. I'm getting images of July 20, 2003 in my head and I do not care to repeat that day.
 
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