07/08/04 FCST: Northern Plains

"just because they got caught with their pants down yesterday..."

The area was outlooked and a watch was in place prior to any severe weather events - I find that hard to call "pants down"?

- Rob
 
Guess I should've been paying more attention.. here I am so wrapped up in work again I forgot to really look at today.. I could've had the day off and been out, but no.. I awaken to find talks here and SPC's MOD risk and slap myself in the head.. I could've been up there in 4 hours. :cry: Ah well.. guess I can watch from the comfort of my computer labs... I get off here at noon.. I suppose if I race up I-76, I could possibly make it. :eek: Hehehe.. we'll see.. I haven't looked over everything yet to make any kind of personal observations, so I won't venture to say anything about the forecast itself.. all I know is I blew a MOD risk close to home! :? Hehehe.. ah well.. can't hit 'em all, I guess! Good luck to everyone out there! Hope this isn't the MOD risk bust I've seen a few times already this year! 8)
 
Interesting...

The 12z ETA looks almost completely off it's rocker. It develops a large (presumably MCS-style) convective complex in central KS by afternoon. This messes up the surface fields and makes the 0z-6z ETA forecasts in NE quite difficult/messy... LOL, I mean, just look at the 850mb wind speeds valid 0z or 6z tonight... Or the low-level UVVs...

The RUC forgoes initiation in KS for the most part... This, along with it's surface solution, yields CAPEs near 7200 (!!) by 21z in southcentral/southeastern NE... Oh yeah, this is atop 0-3km helicity >200-250 m2/s2 ... Yes, mid-level flow remains weak, but the extreme instability should more than make up for it. The RUC depicts a minimum in CINH over far se NE near the KS border by 21z... Additionally, 850mb UVV forecasts indicate strong upward motion near this area by 21z as well.

As for virtual target -- toughie... It's hard to base too much off the ETA given how what it does over KS by 0z. However, it does depict a weakness in the cap in central NE...

Virtual Area: Hebron, NE, to Beatrice, NE, to Marysville, KS ...
 
Wow! I looked at the SPC last night before bed, but I did not expect to awake to this! I'm new at this so we will see how I do. RUC is outputing CAPE at 5000+ J/kg. The aproaching warm front moving north from Kansas is hopefully going to bring in the moisture I like. This moisture looks somewhat deep. The current Omaha sounding shows little to no instablility, but North Platte shows some hope, with currently a slight amount of instability. The 18Z or even 15Z I think are going to be the key. I see if this warm front moves over NE and this shortwave moves closer to the region, could see some good shear. I dont like the cloud layer we got here in Lincoln and I really hope it will burn off or move away from the area. Since i get out of work at noon, think I'll do some more atempted forecasting and maybe pick a spot somewhere in central NE.
 
Heh Jeff, I agree with you that the ETA forecast is a mess - though I think this is often the case with ETA forecasts of < 18 hours - it just really struggles to get the physics going. Really, the RUC has two regions of play that it focuses on (areas of strong moisture convergence - a surprisingly reliable forecast tool BTW for DMC). The first, as you suggested is around KC, but the RUC is not capturing the current convective cluster over eastern KS - and attendant clouds spreading NEward from it - so the forecast instability over NW MO is probably overdone and makes the late afternoon convection more questionable. I still prefer the western action along the cold front despite the marginal moisture, saving my earlier forecast point of VTN, but now nudging back southward from there, perhaps toward OGA for the 22-02Z time frame, as the convection rolling out of WY gets into better instability. The best moisture should intersect the cold front somewhere in this area - this point should be most promising for tornadic potential IMO, but it is too early to pinpoint. Horrible road network out there, so hopefully my forecast proves incorrect for those planning to chase today.

Glen
 
The SPC has dropped thier Day 1 outlook, decreasing down to a 5%. Still good.
 
Fcst high for G.I. is 92...........I think we'll get enough heating to break this cap. It'll be close, but this cap should NOT deter anyone from making this chase. Something's going to fire, and odds are it's going to be impressive when it does. I like Jeff Snyder's target are.. I'd slide it maybe a hair north and west. G.I. to Seward to To Hebron. I know that narrows it down oh so much, but.......

CAPE is still ridiculous......they don't make a color for it that high on the RUC. ;)
 
Interesting n-s line developing in the western edge of the eroding cloud deck in c to nc NE....what exactly is that? Outflow boundary? Man this feels like the movie groundhogs day. I sooo did this yesterday. I'd get on that wherever it intersects the warmfront. Heading to somewhere w or sw of Ainsworth....AGAIN. At least I just decided to loop the radar before leaving unlike yesterday and this boundary is not moving west. Hmmm whatever it is it's not moving east on satellite but is on radar...it's probably associated with the west edge of that cloud deck, which would serve as no use if it moves east with the cloud deck. Oh well, heading west now. Good luck to any and all that head out.

Mike

Edit...ah it's the cold front, which has all the cape behind it lol. This must weaken it's push east as the day goes on(per ruc)?

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/ruc0...hr_sfc_cape.gif

LOL, that isn't a pretty picture. Oh well........
 
Heading out to the GI / York area. I think with the clearing in So Central NE things could fire between there and the boarder. I like the 70 – 72 dews in the south, and I don’t believe the warm front is going to move as far north as thought by this afternoon. The front moving out of WY could also be a good play if it gets far enough E. Good luck to all and stay safe.
 
Yeah I'm thoroughly confused on where to go. I too don't think the wf will get as far north as the ruc has it by 0z, but it does look like it wants to surge n on sat. And I don't like this east push already near vtn with all the clouds infront of it. South sucks cause the mid-level flow is like 20knts. I want to be in that cape though and may opt south yet.
 
Fcst high for G.I. is 92...........I think we'll get enough heating to break this cap. It'll be close, but this cap should NOT deter anyone from making this chase. Something's going to fire, and odds are it's going to be impressive when it does. I like Jeff Snyder's target are.. I'd slide it maybe a hair north and west. G.I. to Seward to To Hebron. I know that narrows it down oh so much, but.......

CAPE is still ridiculous......they don't make a color for it that high on the RUC. ;)
Click to expand...

You must have made the forecaster nervous, he decided to update his high temps for today......


INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GRAND ISLAND

1230 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

UPDATED
.REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
 
Well, Glen, I knew I'd jinx this thing somehow. ;) I knew it was too good to be true.

Blame this bust on me, everyone!! ;)

I'm still holding out hope.
 
I'm thinking the York area also. The clouds seem to be eroding and looking at current temps I'm hoping that when it does temps will jump and the storms will hopefully fire, even though the forecasted temps make me doubt it. With mid level winds only being 20 kts or so I'm really not sure what to think. If the cap erodes it will be golden, if not it will be iron. I cant help fell somehow uneasy about this chase. Oh well. Time to rally my chase partner and head off.
 
Another Night In Beatrice

Looks like yet another evening in Beatrice NE. Currently heading south out of Sioux Falls for the York area with options in all directions.
 
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