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07/06/04 FCST: Great Lakes


Since the first forecast thread wouldn't allow Great Lakes Forecasters in we'll start a new one here... Loving the low-level helicity on the Eta for tomorrow, and given the lack of cloudiness I think will be moving in with the front could setup for a very nice day especially across southern MI / northern IN & OH.

- Rob
Just reached the family vacation destination... About 75 miles west of Marquette, MI. I am frying in 55-60F heat, right off the snowbelt of Lake Superior! :lol:

Just looked at the 12Z ETA and forecast discussions, and it looks like a good day for southern MI/IN/OH. Of course, it will probably be a big event since I am not there... The last time I was away, we ended up with July 2 1997...

Anyway, as Rob said, helicities are excellent! Td's climbing towards 70's with some good low level heating produce a volatile atmosphere. Then, then trigger gets pulled when the cold front moves across. Should be some good action during prime daytime heating - Good luck to anyone chasing tomorrow!
Strange the new TAF's from NWS GRR have a chance of storms from 10Z-12Z and then dry the rest of the day...

- Rob
The latest RUC resolves E/SE winds across much of the LP through 15Z; I have a feeling that if the low doesn't slow down before 18Z, any chase potential will be in far E/SE L. MI - possibly the thumb area of Huron and Sanilac Co; eastward across Lake Huron into S. Ontario.

Two targets if I should go out chasing this afternoon; Flint to the thumb; with the ideal target (at this hour) being in southern Ontario Canada. Since I probably won't get out today; this will be my random wishcast for the morning. However should the low slow down; I believe the LP would stand a greater risk for rotating storms/isolated tornado potential.

I'm holding off on getting excited for TOR"s along with warmfront - it's just now pushing through Lansing and I don't think they'll get enough CAPE towards Flint and the thumb for anything well-organized. GRR is downplaying the storm threat for most of the area but I think hail and especially winds look good for the southern third of MI down into IN/OH.

- Rob
Following a current RUC and surface analysis; I still favor an isolated rotating storm/tornado or two E of Flint around the thumb area of the LP. Winds have predominantly become SW and fairly unidirectional across from KZO to LAN. Best LI, Helicity, and surface perameters are across the extreme eastern LP from 21-00Z; with tornado potential moving into S. Ontario Canada between 23-03Z. SPC has gone buzz MDT across the S. LP and points S; but as SPC is expecting; this looks to be a wind even primarily.

Should I have my pick of targets; I would favor Huron/Sanilac Co. MI from now until 24Z. However just can't tempt myself over there due to commitments locally. For now; I'll play the pre-linear event across the KZO-BTC-LAN and points S. region; as the window of opportunity for rotating storms is departing E/NE rapidly.

Current observations at KZO; sunny; widespread CU; S/SW winds at 10-14 mph; Td: 67, Temp: 83 (i.e: very humid in my apartment).