07/05/05 -- TALK: Hurricane Dennis

[Justin Turcotte]

This storm has the potential to really mess up oil production in the Gulf. If the rigs are shut down for a significant amount of time than you can expect gas prices to surge. Worst case scenario would be extensive damage in Port Fourchon where millions of barrels of crude get unloaded. The official TPC track throws this potentially powerful storm into Pensacola which is already beat up from Ivan. Western outlier models including GFS are aiming for the Big Easy. Seems like every year a system threatens that area only to hit just east or west.

 

[Brett Adair]

This storm has the potential to really mess up oil production in the Gulf. If the rigs are shut down for a significant amount of time than you can expect gas prices to surge. Worst case scenario would be extensive damage in Port Fourchon where millions of barrels of crude get unloaded. The official TPC track throws this potentially powerful storm into Pensacola which is already beat up from Ivan. Western outlier models including GFS are aiming for the Big Easy. Seems like every year a system threatens that area only to hit just east or west.

Very good point, Justin. That is the last thing we need around here is our gas and electricity prices to skyrocket once again. The Pensacola coastline is still gone since Ivan took most of it out last year. The beach area still sits facing the wrong side of the highway now, and a storm of this proportion would take out the rest of the condos in the region. This would probably drive people from rebuilding if another storm of that magnitude hits there anytime soon.

 

[Owen Shieh]

SST's are abnormally warm this time of year, everywhere in the Caribbean and Gulf 1-3 degrees C above normal this time of year, so there would be no problem sustaining a major hurricane. Plus, Dennis isn't going to be stalling out and sitting in the same place for more than a couple hours, so mixing of the water won't be an issue. If shear is totally absent, I would not be surprised if the storm strengthens beyond 100 kts. The ridge does look like it's remaining firm, so a track somewhere between New Orleans and the Florida panhandle looks the most likely at this point. It would all depend on the shortwave coming through in a couple days.

And I would certainly hope the latest GFS run isn't going to come true, because the right front quadrant of a major hurricane crossing into Lake Pontchartrain would be New Orleans' worst nightmare.

 

[Jim Tang]

If Dennis passes just to the east or just to the north, New Orleans could be hit just as badly. Lake Pontchartrain is just to the north of New Orleans, and a northerly wind on a back side of a storm would push the waters of the lake right into New Orleans.

Thoughts?

 

[Aric Cylkowski]

In my opinion, I think the storm is going to strengthen beyond the NHC forecast. It has already shown to be ahead of the NHC's schedule from yesterday, I can only imagine the newer forecasts may suffer from the same issue of time.

I figure, this far out, that the storm will take on a Charley/Ivan path that may undoubtedly bring it ashore between Pensacola and New Orleans. I don't think I have to explain how bad the situation would be if it hit either town.

 

[Owen Shieh]

I think New Orleans would be more afraid of easterly winds than northerly. Offshore winds would typically be lighter, so even though New Orleans is south of the lake, it shouldn't be as much of a conern than the extremely strong easterly winds that would come ahead of a storm from the south. Water would just pile up into the lake from the Gulf, and the immense storm surge would do its thing with the city. Well, someday, either this weekend or a hundred years later, something like this will happen to New Orleans, so anyone who lives there should keep their eyes out.

 

[Mark Farnik]

Is it just me, or is it highly unusual for a hurricane this strength to be forming this early in the season? Doubtless this has happened before, but it still is pretty rare. This does not bode well for the rest of the season. If we are having a possible Cat 4/ dare I say maybe even Cat 5 in early July, what will August and September be like??? :shock:
According to the NHC the SST's in the Gulf and the Carribean are already 1-3 degrees Celsius above normal. How hot will they be in late August/early September?
This may be the year that the U.S. mainland sustains another direct hit from a Cat 5 storm. :evil:
At this point, after looking at all the models and analyzing the NHC discussions, Dennis looks like it might be the next Camille. Except a month earlier. The potential path similarities are very eerie. :shock: :shock: And quite a few of the models are pulling for a more northwesterly track, especially the GFS 132 hour 850 millibar, which shows Dennis plowing into New Orleans around 1200 UTC on Monday. If it follows this potential track and strengthens as much as everyone thinks it will, there well could be the largest hurricane evacuation in U.S. history come this weekened. Anyway you look at, whether it be the Big Easy, Biloxi/Gulfport, Mobile, or Pensacola, this could be a major disaster. This could be the big one everyone has talked about for years. Stay tuned. :!:

 

[Owen Shieh]

Except for Hurricane Audrey in 1957 (June), there were no U.S. landfalls of cat. 4 or higher in either June or July. Since 1851, the numbers for U.S. landfalling hurricanes in July are as follows:

Cat 4-5: 0
Cat 3: 3 (1936 in Florida, 1916 in MS/AL, 1909 in Texas)
Cat 2: 6
Cat 1: 14
Total: 23

So the last major hurricane to hit the U.S. in July was in 1936! Dennis could be the first cat. 4 storm to hit the U.S. in all the July's on record. Cat. 5 may be pushing it, but it's not impossible with the current atmospheric conditions in play.

 

[Brandon Clement]

Major hurricanes in July are not that common because the upper level winds have a tendency to become unfarvorable in the carribean during the month of July, the water temperature usually does not peak until early August, but it looks as though it has already gotten up around peak levels in some parts of the gulf and the upper levels have become favorable much earlier this year. The potential is there for a historical year. Great for chasing but not the communities that get devistated. I grew up about a 1/2 mile from lake Ponchatrain in Mandeville and it does not take much for flooding to occur on the north side of the lake because their is no levy just a 3 foot retainer. If the eye were to hit New Orleans it would devistate the communities of Mandeville and Slidell. If the eye were to move WNW over Lake Ponchatrain it would obliterate New Orleans. The hurricane would push water into the Lake and New Orleans and when the wind shifts and starts blowing out of the north it would fill New Orleans up like a bath tub. It is only a matter of time before this happens, I just hope it is not this year. All the water that falls in New Orleans has to be pumped out so it would remain flooded for a long period and disease would become a major concern. Here is an article.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/2000/wnoflood.htm

I just got home from Cindy and she was a good warm up for Dennis. The path Dennis is forecasted to take is very similar to Camille and with nothing forecast to hamper developement it could be just as bad. There is no good place for this thing to hit, but if I had to chose I would send it to gulfport since it could really use a facelift and the casino's would help things get built back quickly plus it is a really good place to watch a strong hurricane roll in with well buit parking garages.

 

[Jim Tang]

Pondering on the worst case scenario here... :lol:

The worst case scenario would be if Dennis moved WNW, at Cat 4 strength, and it hit the area just west of Slidell. The area from Slidell east to Pascagoula would be devastated by the surge from the GOM, and the area around New Orleans would be devastated by the surge from Lake Pontchartrain.

On the other hand, looking at my atlas, another "worst case scenario" would be if Dennis moved just west of New Orleans. The strongest winds would move over New Orleans, but more importantly, surge from the south would as well. (if you look at an atlas, the GOM isn't that far from New Orleans). And, of course, the Slidell/Bay St. Louis/Biloxi/Gulfport area would still be inundated.

If Dennis hit the Pensicola area, it would just add to the devastation in that area already. If it hit Mobile, the surge from Mobile Bay would devastate the area.

:roll:

The best area to make landfall would be near the rural marshes of central Louisiana, Kenedy County TX (not likely), or the rural "Big Bend" area of Florida (around Perry/Taylor County FL). The latter area has a special bonus: waters are a bit cooler there; just look at the SSTs.

 

[Justin Bailey]

T.S. Dennis

just got back from vacation and took a look at the newest forcast run and am puzzled as to why nobody is talking about the eta's forcast for dennis. it shows the system being over the mtns of E cuba at 36 hrs as a 1011 mb low. and then making landfall again on S fla as a 1009 mb low in 60 hrs. has the eta just had an off day or something?

On the other hand, the gfs models forcast seems to be the one everyone is talking about. it shows dennis being only 999 mb in 60 hrs when it is over W Cuba, and from there strengthing rapidly from 999 mb to 988 mb in 48 hrs. if this pans out i dont see why it couldnt be a cat. 4 possibly even a cat. 5 by the time it makes landfall.

If dennis takes the track the gfs is predicting then the city of New Orleans may very well have to be renamed New Orleans Lake. I pray that the eta's forcast is correct. Boy what a rough way to start this hurricane season. and its barely been one month. makes you wonder what august will be like.

 

[Owen Shieh]

Yeah, the ETA model is normally sub-par in terms of tropical forecasting. It's awesome for mesocale/convective events over land, but for tropical weather, it's not reliable. It's good to look at sometimes, perhaps to laugh at it, but definitely not discussed very much in the field of tropics. The GFS normally has a better grasp on these systems.

But yeah, New Orleans is not lookin too fortunate....

 

[Justin Bailey]

t.s. dennis

thanks owen. i didn't know that

the latest NHC discussion is calling for dennis to be a major hurricane in 48 hrs! it also mentions the GFDL forcasting dennis to be at 127 kt and 931 mb in 48 hrs. WOW!!!!

 

[MClarkson]

Justin, the gfdl and ships models are usually the ones that are used for intensity.. Ignore any intensity information from the global models... gfs, nogaps, or ukmet, etc. They cannot resolve the small scales of hurricanes to properly model the wind/pressure field.

 

[Jim Tang]

Breaking news - Dennis is now a hurricane.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/062148.shtml

Satellite images show improved structure as well.