Craig Maire II
Looks like a decent shortwave and cold front will plow into very warm moist unstable air across portions of the upper midwest on the 4th and could spawn severe thunderstorms including supercells.
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Brandon Sullivan
EF5
Well ill go ahead and chime in.. Not too much to add. I definitely think IL should be added. Looks like it could be a nice event. Shear looks to be good. TIming is still flip flopping alot though.
Jim Hunt
EF2
IN, MI, & OH look to be the primary areas according to the SPC forecast.
A cold front is expected to move through the northern half of Indiana in the afternoon and evening producing severe weather.
A cold front is expected to move through the northern half of Indiana in the afternoon and evening producing severe weather.
Brandon Sullivan
EF5
Well as the problem has been soo many times this year.. It looks like the wind fields are just really lacking.. Shear is expected to be weak again, but should be enough forcing, and upper level support for thunderstorms, with hail and wind. As mentioned in the SPC outlook, if a further south position were to occur with the disturbance, then the associated shear/tornado threat would increase.
tom hanlon
EF2
Interesting day developing in OH/PA/NY .
Trying to get a feel for how today may develop.
Looks like plenty of sunshine in the Southern 2/3 of OH. Possible that more of the cloud cover North may burn off. Dynamic situation with warm front rolling through and then Cold front later.
Boundaries and shear should be available and ther should be a supercell or two given the shear. Better chance for tor in the less chaseable terrain into PA. May head into the Cambridge to Akron stretch of Interstate 77. Basically the top half of the state Eastern side. Assuming the storms will develop West and come East that should give me a chance to catch them in moderately chaseable terrain and in moderately decent environment.
I live in Athens Ohio (South East) so then again I may watch the day for a few more hours from home because a lot could go wrong with today's forecast.
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Tom
Trying to get a feel for how today may develop.
Looks like plenty of sunshine in the Southern 2/3 of OH. Possible that more of the cloud cover North may burn off. Dynamic situation with warm front rolling through and then Cold front later.
Boundaries and shear should be available and ther should be a supercell or two given the shear. Better chance for tor in the less chaseable terrain into PA. May head into the Cambridge to Akron stretch of Interstate 77. Basically the top half of the state Eastern side. Assuming the storms will develop West and come East that should give me a chance to catch them in moderately chaseable terrain and in moderately decent environment.
I live in Athens Ohio (South East) so then again I may watch the day for a few more hours from home because a lot could go wrong with today's forecast.
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Tom
Andrew Ryan
EF3
The tornado threat extends all the way to the coast, including NJ and parts of LI. It's interesting that the SPC is forecasting a higher risk of tornadoes (relatively) than hail or wind. Though, I doubt I will see anything.
