Tony Laubach
EF5
One of the better days in Colorado may be shaping up for tomorrow as good low-level upslope flow combined with good moisture will aid to severe thunderstorm development mid-to-late afternoon along the Front Range. Storms will again move into the Eastern Plains and rapidly become severe.
The cap which held storms at bay Monday will be much weaker as temps at 700mb are progged to cool from the north, adding to steep lapse rates. CAPE values are progged to be near 2000J/kg with lower to mid 50s dews all over the plains. Some mixing is possible closer to the front range, but dews should hold on the Plains for storms. Richer dews exist further east into Kansas where 60s are possible, maintaining the severe threat over the area. Temps oughta hold in the 80s, which would give LCLs a chance at becoming low enough for tornado development, particularly along any boundries left over from Tuesday night's convection. Temps in the 90s would result in LCLs that may be out of reach for tornadoes, so hoping the lower to mid 80s verifiy. Wind fields show good shear, however, 500mb flow still looks a bit on the weak side.
I think tomorrow holds potential for some great Front Range action and am looking forward to checking things out again later tonight and early on Wednesday. Will keep very close tabs on this and see what the local mets are thinking about tomorrow's prospects. Hail should be a sure-bet in severe storms tomorrow, but I'm holding on to some tornatic potential if we can get some improvement in winds.
The cap which held storms at bay Monday will be much weaker as temps at 700mb are progged to cool from the north, adding to steep lapse rates. CAPE values are progged to be near 2000J/kg with lower to mid 50s dews all over the plains. Some mixing is possible closer to the front range, but dews should hold on the Plains for storms. Richer dews exist further east into Kansas where 60s are possible, maintaining the severe threat over the area. Temps oughta hold in the 80s, which would give LCLs a chance at becoming low enough for tornado development, particularly along any boundries left over from Tuesday night's convection. Temps in the 90s would result in LCLs that may be out of reach for tornadoes, so hoping the lower to mid 80s verifiy. Wind fields show good shear, however, 500mb flow still looks a bit on the weak side.
I think tomorrow holds potential for some great Front Range action and am looking forward to checking things out again later tonight and early on Wednesday. Will keep very close tabs on this and see what the local mets are thinking about tomorrow's prospects. Hail should be a sure-bet in severe storms tomorrow, but I'm holding on to some tornatic potential if we can get some improvement in winds.