I decided to start a thread for tomorrow in the northern, central, and high plains with the next upper level trough that is forecast to arrive and usher in SW flow aloft, which will create quite a stir over the next few days. Tomorrow is the day before the big day, but definitely worth watching. Strong surface cyclogenesis will take place in Montana and deepen in response to the height falls with the approach of the trough. Modest moisture will advect northwards with low to mid 60 dewpoints arriving by late afternoon. I like the warm front play right along the South Dakota and North Dakota border tomorrow with a position of something like Hettinger or Bowman ND where the winds will be backed in response to the surface low west of there. Here's a couple of links to the forecast Skew-T and hodographs for that location tomorrow at 0Z (click 36 hours or less to equal 0Z).
http://tinyurl.com/2ap9dfa
http://tinyurl.com/2ea77a2
Some of the parameters are downright insane and hard to believe in the Skew-T details (take a look for yourself). With the upper air divergence spreading across the region and a low level jet kicking in during the early evening hours, a window of opportunity exists for tornadoes as low level shear will be enhanced right after dinner time. This may end up being a 3Z type of event, but either way it should be before dark. LCLs are manageable, but could be lower. Dr. Forbes has a few moderate Tor:Con indexes in the 5 range for tomorrow in that general area and further south into western Nebraska, and I feel he will probably go higher if things come together the way they hopefully will with a little luck.
I'd be interested in hearing from the chasers who live up north as it's been kind of quiet for you guys lately. Please chime in!!!
http://tinyurl.com/2ap9dfa
http://tinyurl.com/2ea77a2
Some of the parameters are downright insane and hard to believe in the Skew-T details (take a look for yourself). With the upper air divergence spreading across the region and a low level jet kicking in during the early evening hours, a window of opportunity exists for tornadoes as low level shear will be enhanced right after dinner time. This may end up being a 3Z type of event, but either way it should be before dark. LCLs are manageable, but could be lower. Dr. Forbes has a few moderate Tor:Con indexes in the 5 range for tomorrow in that general area and further south into western Nebraska, and I feel he will probably go higher if things come together the way they hopefully will with a little luck.
I'd be interested in hearing from the chasers who live up north as it's been kind of quiet for you guys lately. Please chime in!!!