06/07/07 FCST: TX / OK / KS / MO / IA / IL / WI

[Jesse Risley]

My main concern here is the mositure return..will it happen far enough north in time to have a good impact on storm development? Otherwise, I think parameters look great for supercell development and I expect a nasty derecho to scream across N.Central IL later this evening. I'm currently west of Des Moines and will be targeting a line either side of Iowa City-Davenport-Sterling-Rock Falls this afternoon. Best of luck to everyone!

 

[Brent A. Clair]

OK, I've been looking at the maps for the last hour, and there's just one thing that bugs me to no end...warm mid layers. All model runs show a continuing presence of warm air in the mid layers, even an increase in temperature, across MO/IL/IA. Now, does this say "strong cap" or am I still misinterpreting this feature? Regardless, my excitement is marginal to say the least. Please, anyone, enlighten us on this subject and feel free to prove me wrong.
Oh Brandon, I share your hopes with the risk area moved over us, but one thing at a time!!!

 

[Mikey Gribble]

Still baffled with the latest outlook, but that isn't my reason for posting. This is the wrong place for this, but hopefully the mods will let it go since it is for a good cause.
If any experienced chasers are going to be chasing in eastern Iowa today and would be willing to help out with calling in reports to a tv station while you're out please send me a PM. I have a friend that is a met at one of the stations in eastern Iowa and they could use some help with their coverage today given the potential risk level, so any help would be appreciated. They just had a town get hit by a tornado within the last week or two, so I am sure coverage is especially important to them right now.
Anyways, I think spc should bring down tornado probs up North and bring them up over the South. I think Kansas-Oklahoma probably deserves 10% at least and if you don't know how I feel about the high risk tornado threat from the 1AM outlook, just scroll back a couple pages. I do agree with the high wind threat however.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

HIGH RISK moved southward somewhat.. Good news for me..

Because storms always obey the SPC outlines?

I've been debating over and over whether or not to bother chasing this setup and finally decided that I'm free, and there's a high risk so I might as well screw around with it.

I'm figuring southern/central Iowa for a target partially since I'm already there. Early-ish initiation, and probably a rapid transition into linear/bow segments since directional shear is ummm, non-existant?

Maybe some supercells very early, and possibly some visible tornadoes during the transitional period but I'm guessing mostly this will be a park in front of the line, get blown over, and go home chase. Even if you get a discrete storm, good luck keeping up with it for very long.

 

[Shane Adams]

We're southbound on I-29 just south of Sioux Falls, targeting SE Kansas to NE/C OK. You just can't ignore two consecutive runs showing isolated storms breaking out in central OK on the tailend of what should be a squall line. Though the surface winds don't seem to back much, the great instability in OK/KS should somewhat compensate for this, enhancing updraft speeds/intensity. I'm with everyone else....I think KS/OK are sleepers in waiting today.

Briefly entertained a MN/WI/IA play today, then laughed at ourselves as reality stepped into the car and said "ok, let's go south."

 

[Chris Wilburn]

At least it is encouraging that the SPC has put a 5% tornado risk in extreme SE KS and NE OK. They also mention supercells and tornadoes near of just after the 00z time frame or just after dark. I really like the moisture and instability as forecasted td's are very high and extreme CAPE is forecasted as well. Could be similar to yesterday in this target area as the cap will probably break just before dark and possibly sooner. What I don't like obviously is the forecasted slightly veered surface winds and 850mb winds as well. The 500 mb winds look veered nicely and storms should be moving at a very good clip as a result of the very strong 500mb flow. Lack of directional shear concerns me, but there will be so much moisture/instability that it should be a nice chase with a chance of tornadoes, which is all you can ask for I guess. We are just getting ready to leave Grand Island and will be headed towards Lincoln to hop on I-29 and head south to SE KS. Good luck to all that chase today as storms should be booking it to the northeast. As far as a target goes I would say extreme SE KS into NE OK, which is home so it works out well. If I had to pick a target now I would say anywhere from Chanute to Tulsa as a very general area at this time while monitoring models throughout the day.

 

[Jim Zandonai]

"Maybe some supercells very early, and possibly some visible tornadoes during the transitional period but I'm guessing mostly this will be a park in front of the line, get blown over, and go home chase. Even if you get a discrete storm, good luck keeping up with it for very long"

Yeah You are most definately right with that assesment..Get in front of line and get blown over.. lol ..Never seen such a high Wind threat on a SPC forecast..60%...So far Good sunshine here too..Should be an interesting day later on.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Interesting tail-end cell shown on the RUC and WRF along the IA-MO border around 21Z. I don't like the wind fields a whole lot, too unidirectional - and everything will really be trucking today.

 

[Donald Giuliano]

The NAM seems to have backed off on the strength of the low-level shear a bit, at least before 00Z, which shouldn't be overly surprising I would guess. Still looks great over MO/OK by 03Z, though, I'm definitely interested. Also appears as though the convection the models have been so insistent on initiating near Norman may be associated with the right-rear quadrant of the jet max, which if that is the case lends a lot of credence to that happening IMO.

 

[MatthewCarman]

SPC saying a tornado watch will likely be issued soon for central and mabey eastern IA.

Storms are firing in SW IA along the MO boarder. Watching the radar and things could get crazy soon.

 

[Jeremy Ludin]

I had originally planned on not setting out today, but just for the sheer pleasure of saying I chased on another high risk day, I might head out. My target is unknown at this point and it all hinges on when they decided to pop, considering I work til 5. Td's currently in the low 60's with some very strong southerly winds. Hopefully we can get on an isolated storm on the southern end of the squall line if it happens.Good luck to all who chase today!

 

[Brian Stertz]

Looking to play the dryline over SE Kansas...and target is looking like Neosho Co. KS towards the 6-8pm timeframe. Have solid eff. shear (50-60 kts.) and SB CAPEs probably in the 4000-5000 j/kg range. At very least will see a few small tornadoes and gargantuan hail. Plus will be close to home and saving a vacation day for tomorrow's "down" day. Today's a gamble and saw the storm motions up north were way too fast to handle...especially with a 100 kt. jestcore poised to blast out from C.Kansas east and northeastward. Had considered Iowa and N.Missouri some but any supercells are bound to rocket well into Wisconsin and NW/NC Illinois by late afternoon/evening...into areas I am not a big fan of chasing in fast moving/evolving situations...including the likelihood of a bad derecho. Best of luck to those going out today !!

 

[Tony Laubach]

What the hell! That's our motto for the day! Chris Collura and I laughed at ourselves and left... east. We're blasting east on I-90 out of Sioux Falls, SD through Minn to Wisconsin for some cheese and maybe a good storm. We know the insanity of our choice, but why the hek not! torm motions be darned! We'll play just to play. And if worse comes to worse, I do love cheese!!! See ya'll on the flip side!!!

 

[Ben Prusia]

I am still thinking that SE Kansas holds some potential for some tornadic action today.

Low-Mid 70 dewpoints are certainly not out of the question today for a target area from I-35 southward in Kansas as dewpoints have already reached 69 degrees in Coffeyville, 68 in Chanute. We might have to deal with some cloud cover over the target area which might hinder some chances for the atmosphere to become very unstable, but the sun is poking out at times which might help. Certainly 4000 J/KG CAPE is possible throughout an area from Oklahoma upwards to SE Kansas. The models still forecast the winds to become a little more south-southwesterly in the area which would hurt the tornadic potential. Currently, the winds are blowing straight out of the south and if it can hold, then the risk of tornadoes is increased. My concern for today is for convection to go linear more rapidly should the surface winds tend more to the southwest, but we have good moisture, good progged instability, decent deep-layer shear, the ingredients for at least a few tornadoes in the Sunflower State. And of course, the rapid storm motions!

So far, my target ranges from Yates Center to Chanute to Coffeyville for possible initiation during the mid-late afternoon hours as 700mb temperatures run above 10 degrees celsius bringing a manageable and breakable cap.

 

[Danny Murphy]

06-07-2007 NOW Stanley, Iowa, 40 NE of Waterloo, 10:18am cst

Let's hope you are wrong on the direction and it does get intense up here in NE Iowa. The only thing that I hate is that it has clouded up to almost overcast at the present 10:18AM CST. Winds are still SW at 20-35 mph. Thanks to all the posts it gives me an idea of what to look for and where to be when these fast storms do approach.

We're southbound on I-29 just south of Sioux Falls, targeting SE Kansas to NE/C OK. You just can't ignore two consecutive runs showing isolated storms breaking out in central OK on the tailend of what should be a squall line. Though the surface winds don't seem to back much, the great instability in OK/KS should somewhat compensate for this, enhancing updraft speeds/intensity. I'm with everyone else....I think KS/OK are sleepers in waiting today.

Briefly entertained a MN/WI/IA play today, then laughed at ourselves as reality stepped into the car and said "ok, let's go south."