06/02/09 FCST: TX/OK/KS/MO

[Larry J. Kosch]

06/02/09 FCST: TX/OK/KS/MO/IL/IN/OH

I'm surprised nobody looked past the 1st of June! Thought I would open a FCST thread for the Midwest (TX, OK, KS, MO) and see how things go from there. I'm leaving the rest of the slight risk area open for a separate thread if needed.

SPC has set up a slight risk area for severe weather in a broad band across TX, up thru OK & KS and into MO. Unfortunately, the probability of tornadoes is listed at 2 percent for TX, OK.

Some of you had good luck in chasing storms June 1. Any better chances or luck today??

EDIT: Added IL to the FCST Thread, due to SWW in MO and IL. LJK.

EDIT: Added IN and OH to the FCST Thread, due to SWW in IN and OH. LJK.

 

[sdienst]

I'll be heading down to the Childress, TX area hoping for something interesting along the numerous outflow boundaries in the region. Most models have had the best mid-level flow and deep layer shear further north of the Red River and better instability further south. 12z NAM however has better 500mb flow further south so you never know. I figure its worth a shot and could be better than what we've seen in SD and KS the past two days.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Somewhat complex forecast for a so-so day -- but what the hell... only 3 more days until "The Super Goodland, KS outbreak of 2009". Originally liked the GAG area, but not sure what impact early AM convective globulation will have later -- likely none. So a GAG to Medicine Lodge, KS would be a potential target as flow around the disturbance in CO might favor more low level shear in addition to possible outflow boundaries from AM convection. Hopefully, the convective mode will not be "clustering" like yesterday. Second initiation area of potential interest would be the Clovis, NM - Hobbs, NM to LBB region later this afternoon if moisture can hold. I like the fact that this area was not worked over recently, in combination with western moving outflow boundaries and maybe a dryline by later this afternoon. This region could produce more isolated storms, so I might hold off unit the convective mode is revealed.

W.

15z AMA radar shows nice outflow boundary moving west from AM convection, currently NW of Turkey, TX heading towards Plainview, TX.

 

[Paul Redmond]

Looking at the NGM models, it just looks like am MCS over Dallas/FW by 7pm and intermittent linear convection over night across the northern hill country. If I were chasing, I would target as far north as Stephenville by 5PM. If I were chasing that is. For me its just another bust to a disappointing season in texas.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Mesoscale Discussion

SPC is having a Mesoscale Discussion about the upswing in deep convective development in MO, IL and IN.

AN UPSWING IN DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MO INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

If a SWW is issued for this area, I will add IL and IN to the FCST Thread.

 

[Tim Marshall]

TARGET: WICHITA, KS. TIME OF DEPARTURE FROM SALINA: NOON We are limited to KS today. I agree with SPC that the main target is around and south of Childress, but that is too far for us. I like the dryline bulge and moisture return there, but winds aloft are weak. So, a group of us from V2 have broken away from the armada and are heading to Wichita, KS to play the weak surface low, and backed surface winds there. I also like that mid-level wind speed max coming across northern OK later today.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

SWW Watch in MO, IL

SPC has issued a SWW watch for MO and IL. I have added IL to the FCST Thread.

 

[Matt Chatelain]

After chasing in South Dakota on Sunday, yesterday in N. Kansas, now Me and Curtis McDonald are heading west to a target just east of Lubbock, TX. Just goes to show how desperate we are, but I like todays setup more than the last few. The the intersection of the outflow boundary and the dryline look pretty decent. Even with the weaker low level winds, we think the tornado threat is there with quite impressive directional shear and high CAPE (4000J/kg). Hoping for a storm to ride the outflow boundary and propagate southeast....

 

[Ryan Wichman]

I don't know how well the storms along the stationary front will do today as compared with the storms yesterday in nearly the same area (removed 100 miles east) Mid-Levels lapse rates are no where near the 7 - 7.5 values they were yesterday, which will create problems with storms trying to maintain their updrafts. With the being said, there are some locally backed winds from OFB's earlier in the day which could help create localized directional shear. Maybe a nice wall cloud or two can be spotted across this area before the storm becomes outflow dominated.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Mesoscale Discussion SW KS

SPC is having a mesoscale discussion about severe weather potential in SW KS.

POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FOR AN ISOLD BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SERN CO AND SWRN KS.

Unfortunately, they do not believe a SWW is necessary.

GIVEN LIMITED AREAL EXTENT AND NATURE OF THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Mesoscale Discussion KS/MO

SPC is having a mesoscale discussion about heavy rain potential in KS/MO. They do not anticipate any SWW or any flood watch at this time.

Keep in mind when chasing in these areas in KS/MO that when heavy rain is present, the threat is there for low lying areas and roads to be flooded. Like they say on the TWC "Turn Around, Don't Drown!"

Be safe out there!!

 

[Rodney Price]

Actually, there are already flood and flash flood watches out for eastern Kansas. The flood watch locally here in Wichita is out until 7am Wednesday.

Nice storm out by DDC. I've been watching the storm via webcam. DDC just issued severe for the cell in Ford/Gray counties.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Mesoscale Discussion TX

The folks at SPC must be hopping like frogs high on "Red Bull". Now they are having a mesoscale discussion about a SWW in the southern plains of TX. A SWW is likely at this point.

I got a "kick" out of this quote in the discussion:

SEVERE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY.

Either they think TX is one Big Country or is there an area in TX that goes by that local reference?

Anybody in TX care to comment??

 

[N. Shaw]

Either they think TX is one Big Country or is there an area in TX that goes by that local reference?

I couldn't draw the boundaries of it for you, but it's definitely a local reference. I generally think of it as around the Abilene area and then west and south. Google "big country" around Abilene and you will find hundreds of local businesses.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Tornado Watch!!

SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Northern TX (referred to in the MSC as Southern Plains and Big Country).

Already you can see a few discrete cells on NEXRAD popping up in a line E/SE of Lubbock TX.

Good Hunting Chasers!!