05/30/07 FCST: TX / OK / KS / CO

[Stuart Robinson]

TARGET: Johnson's Mesa, NM. In Goodland, KS this morning heading S. Models forecasting narrow jet max at 500mb to extend across KS/OK border. I see two very marginal plays today: SE CO and SE KS. Prefer a picturesque LP on the mesa later as marginal moisture impinges on the front range. Surface winds are progged to swing SE later. Will forget about central TX as winds aloft there are weak. Will likely stay in Liberal, KS tonight to play area tomorrow. TM

 

[Bill Schintler]

Chase target for Wednesday, May 30

Chase target:
Haskell, TX (40 miles N of Abilene)

Timing:
Storm initiation 4 PM CDT.

Storm mode:
Pulse and multicell storms, with some marginally-severe hail possible in the stronger storms.

Synopsis:
This morning, ULVL flow indicated closed H5 circulation centered over ERN MT with 50kt streak rounding back side of this feature near Salt Lake City. Meanwhile, SWRD-moving OFB from MCS that had traveled ESE along the Red River this morning was located just N of BPG to DYS. Along and S of this feature, SFC dewpoints ranged from 65 to 70F.

Discussion:
With the strongest ULVL flow well north of the area, today’s WX in TX will be influenced by mesoscale features. OFB-enhanced SFC boundary will stall out this afternoon in response to strong SFC heating. N of this boundary, ERLY SFC flow will enhance hodograph curvatures as an EML – as noted in AMA and MAF soundings – approaches the area. Storms should fire by late afternoon along and just N of this boundary in response to strong insolation. Impressive instability, with MLCAPE’s of 4000J/kg will be juxtaposed with marginal deep-layer shear of 25-30 kts along with SFC-3km SRHs of 200m2/s2 which should promote rotating updrafts with the stronger cells.

- bill