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05/27/04 FCST: INDIANA/ MICHIGAN/ OHIO

I know a few of us chase out here in the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley, and it looks like tomorrow could be active...The past two runs of the ETA (12Z and 18Z) are looking stronger and stronger with this shortwave dropping down. Wind field will be excellent, with DTW forecast sounding showing about 45knts of 0-6km shear tomorrow afternoon/evening...Instability is the main question, and if we can get enough of it, I think a decent chance for severe weather may occur.

Robert
 
Looks like timing of convective development may possibly coincide with my departure from work :) If things can hold out til 22Z in far se MI, I might stand a chance. Still way too early to tell.
 
Eta 18Z shear is even better for Lansing... I'm still worried about the Eta's MEGA-bust from yesterday - CAPE of 3000 with temps in the mid-upper 70's when we had CAPE of 0 with temps in the fifties. A little gunshy now. But the wind profile has me at least mentioning the threat.

- Rob
 
SPC has removed the slight risk to well southwest of MI as of the 0600Z outlook. Severe weather threat will be highly dependant on how well dewpoints can advect into the region, with low 60s needed. I believe SPC should have kept the slight risk in place, considering the wind field and at least the potential for some organized severe weather, if dewpoints can manage to get up there (SPC has had a slight risk for much more marginal looking days). NWS DTX has disagreed with SPC, and issued a severe weather outlook stating the potential for severe thunderstorms and the possibility of AT LEAST isolated tornadoes...

Robert
 
Not IN/MI or OH but WV, in the same system hitting OH. Decent storm went up to my east in Tucker County. Robust structure but seems to be dying fast. Radar shows line out of OH approaching my location, I would guess in approx. 30-40 mins.
 
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