05/14/04 FCST: GREAT LAKES

For us Great Lakes chasers...

After looking very closely at the latest 00Z models (at first glance, severe weather chances don't look so good), I am not totally convinced that tomorrow will feature no severe weather, particularly across the eastern MI region. The latest 00Z ETA shows T in the upper 70's, with Td's around 64-66F, which looks reasonable given current conditions. This yeilds over 1500j/kg of CAPE on the ETA/WS-ETA/MM5 soundings, and the 10km RUC horizontal view. Both the ETA, the WS-ETA, and experimental fsl 10km RUC show nice backing of the SFC winds, with good veering through the lowest 850/700mb...With helicity climbing to over 175m2/s2. Wind field is pretty good, and LCL's are relatively low at ~1000m, so a tornado couldn't be totally ruled out (actually there was a report of a tornado today in Owosso MI from law enforcement). Cold front moves through in the afternoon/evening hours, during prime heating, and I could imagine a few decent severe storms developing along it...One major problem exists though, and thats extensive clouds. The latest 4 hour loop of the IR indicates quite a bit of clouds across the central US, which is headed for the Great Lakes...Yet the models are relatviely dry in the 850-700mb layer for early tomorrow across eastern MI (~70% RH)...I guess we shall see what happens...

What are some other opinions?

Robert
 
the 06z Day 1 agrees with you pretty much. Most of Michigan's under a slight risk and there's a 2% tornado risk there too.
 
I was surprised to see them jump on it (not that SLIGHT is jumping ;> ) Too much cloudines... winds are marginal (not horrible, but certainly not screaming)... cold front is just drifting so no convergence along it... WBZ way up there so no hail...

- Rob
 
Well, I just got home from the office and looked things over. I'm not enthused enough to drive down to your guys' neck of the woods. Looks like alot more rain, and maybe some wind, so I think I'm going to hang out here and continue to build the ark for when all this rain comes down the river.

Not enough clearing, and unless you see some sun downstate, I don't see anything happening down there either. Info only, the cold front has just past through Big Rapids, six hours after it came on shore from Lake Michigan. This thing is crawling.

Hopefully I've talked it down enough to get something to blow up down there for y'all.

Tim
 
There wasn't anything to indicate a tornado - that storm had been rotating for a while and spotters reported absolutely nothing with it. No way to warn for that, and the SVR for Gratiot as the storm continued on northeast nothing happened. I'll be headed up that way later...

- Rob

PS This probably should be in the NOW thread.
 
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