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05/09/2005 TALK: Plains - Mississippi River Valley - Midwest

Looks like the potential does exist for a severe weather episode over parts of the midwest, mainly western Illinois. By no means is it a major event...but supercells are faintly possible. Multicell severe storms appear the biggest threat, but things have been getting better with each run.

Currently planning a target between Springfield, IL and St. Louis, MO. Probably around Litchfield, IL. For those of you not familiar with the area...I've made a nice little map. ;)


Temps should reach the low 80s (cloud cover pending) with dew points near 70F. CAPE is being progged anywhere from 1500-3000 j/kg over west central Illinois, with helicity values around 250. Deep layer shear is around 40 kts, which is just barely enough.

Essentially it will depend on how the cloud cover situation is tomorrow. Should have some convection move through the area during the morning, but, hoping it exits the area by late morning.
I seem to remember that area being under construction LAST year. That, and the Bloomington area construction...such a pain.

Either way...I'll be leaving Champaign around 230PM...I'll give ya a call on the ham rig when I'm out.
I'm sitting here at the IHOP in Norman considering a drive to NW TX with the hope of seeing some svr wx. I doubt there is a chance of tornadoes but with the instability down there, svr wx is very possible. I am looking at a target east of Witchita Falls. Dp's down there look to reach the mid 60's with a backed surface wind and the DL moving east, ever so slowly. Surface heating will be strong down there and instability will be good ~2500 j/kg. However, there is little or no upper level support so risk of another bust is there. Gonna make up my mind soon to either head down there or get an early start on heading North for tomorrow.