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05/08/04 NOW: NE, IA, MT, SD, ND

Larry J. Kosch

Storms are firing up near McCook NE and Ames, IA. And severe thunderstorm warnings were posted in Iowa. Storm watches have been issued in MT, SD, ND, NE and IA. This thread has been started for discussion of these storms. 8) LJK.
 
The surface boundary is finally going to get in on the act tonight, nice to see that finally lol.


The storms in central IA near Ames have weakened a bit. Impressive cumulus field all along the boundary. It looks as though some new development may be taking place further northeast towards ALO. The cap is a little stronger west along the boundary and there the cumulus is a little less impressive...for now.
 
Satellite view of storms

Here's a link to the GOES-10 satellite view of the storms in NE and IA.Both are very visible with their high tops. The McCook NE storms have new tops developing near Lexington and moving toward Holdrege and Kearney. The Ames IA storm has weakened but a new cluster has developed west by Denison, IA. Another group has developed over by Waterloo, IA.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/Special/Curr...Wx/G10arm10.asp

Storm chasers will be very busy trying to decide which groups to chase!!

Have Fun!! 8) LJK.
 
I'm getting bored and desperate here and was actually considering the Denison area junk. Check out this warning....

http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/0405082154.KDMX.wuus53.html

* AT 450 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF SCRANTON...OR ABOUT 35
MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT DODGE...MOVING EAST AT 100 MPH.

The storm will be near the state of NC by.......

LOL, one too many zeros?
 
Good lord that last frame doesn't look so junky. Hmmmm....looping now... Not sure racing east for that will accomplish a whole lot. Couple more frames and hopefully that little blip by Norfork will be doing something similar.
 
Mike - I might be inclined to go ahead and jump on the Norfork cell ... it's very close to riding the boundary and not far for you - last sweep has one itty bitty red blip in the middle.

... wondering if I should have chickened out, but still thinking overall that it's for the best. Still hope you guys catch something - let me know if I can assist -
 
This is why the river sucks and living right on it. Which side to drive north on. I know I need to get north . Ok, heading north up 75 on NE side of river. Good luck all who are out.
 
Mike - if this catches you before you leave - keep in mind that this cell is moving due east right now if you intercept on 75 ... you'll definitely need a river crossing before it's done ... you actually may be able to cross at Sioux City on this one - - -
 
Iowa Storms Exploding!!

That line of storms in IA between Dennison and Waterloo is exploding like a string of firecrackers. Its following a frontal boundary thats clearly showing on the NWS radar out of Des Moines IA:

http://www.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0...0/si.kdmx.shtml

Still watching that group of storms near McCook, now closer to Lexington NE. One storm cell just took a "left turn" north right towards Lexington. Should be a warning out for that town about right now...

You chasers having fun yet?? :lol: LJK.
 
The McCook/Lexington cells are puzzling - if anything they are moving backwards into more stable air and will start falling apart if they keep it up - I think the front may have pushed ahead of them. Hopefully Mike's cell won't do the same thing - it's looking more and more healthy right now. Iowa is looking more and more MCSish. Ick - looks like it's going linear pretty quickly ... Mike's only hope is to get on that cell EARLY.
 
help a n00b out. If i was to leave Cedar Rapids right now, what area would be my best bet to head towards? I have no radar capabilities while chasing (until thursday), so I need somwhere I can go sit and wait for the storms pretty much.
 
ok - ben - just this one time ... you've got to remember that the only way to start making judgments on your own is to just start going after stuff at some point (IF you feel comfortably safe - that's always hard for me to offer advice on when someone is new) ... you've got to dive in, even when storms are lining out and you may not catch a tornado ... it's the only way to get a feel for how this works - especially on trickier days like this one ...

honestly, if you're wanting to see tornadoes, I don't think Cedar Rapids is the place to be ... the only hope for them IMHO is up in the NW corner of the state, where there are decent helicities setting up ... in your neck of the woods the storms will form a line and gust through as primarily outflowish ... the only hope in that particular scenario is to be on the trailing 'tail end charlie' that can sometimes take on supercell characteristics. I would still drive off to your east and intercept for lightning and hail if nothing else (look at radar before you go) ... but that's just me.

Now the disclaimer - storm chasing is dangerous and should only be undertaken by those who have an understanding of storm structure and motion, as well as a decent understanding of the environment. You'll have to make the call from here - - -
 
Watch out Waterloo !!

Storms along boundary just west of Waterloo need to be watched carefully. These are slowly moving and if they move a bit slower they should begin to rotate and possibly hook.

These storms in nern Iowa have the best mid-level shear going according to profilers, so if any would Tornado I would think they would be in nern Iowa near or just west of Waterloo next hour or so.
 
Originally posted by Mike Peregrine
ok - ben - just this one time ... you've got to remember that the only way to start making judgments on your own is to just start going after stuff at some point (IF you feel comfortably safe - that's always hard for me to offer advice on when someone is new) ... you've got to dive in, even when storms are lining out and you may not catch a tornado ... it's the only way to get a feel for how this works - especially on trickier days like this one ...

honestly, if you're wanting to see tornadoes, I don't think Cedar Rapids is the place to be ... the only hope for them IMHO is up in the NW corner of the state, where there are decent helicities setting up ... in your neck of the woods the storms will form a line and gust through as primarily outflowish ... the only hope in that particular scenario is to be on the trailing 'tail end charlie' that can sometimes take on supercell characteristics. I would still drive off to your east and intercept for lightning and hail if nothing else (look at radar before you go) ... but that's just me.

Now the disclaimer - storm chasing is dangerous and should only be undertaken by those who have an understanding of storm structure and motion, as well as a decent understanding of the environment. You'll have to make the call from here - - -

thanks mike. Im studying up alot on storm structure and whatnot, trying to teach myself how to forecast. It just helps to have input from someone who knows what they are doing. Thanks again
-ben
 
Going to end up as a lot of elevated hail-producers, looks like even back into NW IA and NE Neb - I could be wrong ... as I so frequently am ... but looks like for the most part they're feeding off of mid-levels rather than reaching for the surface -

Of course, after just saying this I see that there are three mesos showing up in Iowa - ha - shows how much I know!
 
Here's a grab from Mike's storm at 6:01 for him to look at when he gets back ... it looks to have propagated further south, which may be a good thing ... he may end up not far from home -

<img src=http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v143/mikeperegrine/mikes_storm.gif>
 
Waterloo Area...junkus

Shoot, the storms just really junked out west of Waterloo. Possibly the big anvil blow-off is really limiting heating of what is left.

The big storm between Dennison and Ames looks interesting with it moving south and taking on a kidney bean appearance. I wonder also if that storm and the rest are undercut by outflow? If thats the case then the tornado threat is over.
 
Undercut Storms !!

Just looked at Des Moines radar, and I think I see an outflow boundary out the big storms near west northwest of DSM. I think she is over gentleman!! at least for any Tornado threat.
 
Re: Undercut Storms !!

Originally posted by Fritz Kruse
Just looked at Des Moines radar, and I think I see an outflow boundary out the big storms near west northwest of DSM. I think she is over gentleman!! at least for any Tornado threat.

We seriously need a decent setup soon or we're going to see chasers start heading for high ledges - - - I'll jump first - - - the weather down here was so "pleasant" today ... UGH :)
 
Tornado Threat Not Over?

Jeez...as soon as I post the storms do opposite :roll:

Now, the supercell with a Tornado Warning west of Des Moines seems to be holding on to its outflow boundary?? So still waiting for some storm chaser reports. Apparently a tornado was reported by cops.

A case of High CAPE and low shear??
 
Well, that cell and the ones back to the west certainly all appear HPish ... likely a combination of factors ... I'm guessing it's as you mention ... the CAPE/shear ratio and the LFC/LCL conditions - I still wouldn't be at all surprised if Mike came back with something from that cell northeast of Columbus ...
 
Won't be surprised a bit - LOL

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
649 PM CDT SAT MAY 8 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
COLFAX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 645 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE STORM WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF CLARKSON...OR ABOUT 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS... MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
 
Here's the current base reflectivity from it:

<img src=http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v143/mikeperegrine/mikes_storm2.gif>

Radial velocity looks like about 20 kts inbound by about 10-20 outbound on it - - - hard to tell -
 
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