Jesse Risley
Staff member
Friday, May 7th has the potential to be a significant severe weather outbreak somewhere in the Great Lakes region should the current GFS and NAM forecast models verify. A deepening surface low is progged to eject out of the lee of the southern Rockies, becoming centered over the Great Lakes region by 12z Saturday at 992 mb.
Taking a look at the incoming dynamics for Friday’s setup (looking at some specifics from THUR due to the fact that the NAM isn’t out beyond 84 hrs attm), a strong upper level jet streak will eject northeastward as the low pressure system advances towards the Great Lakes region. Strong upper level dynamics will be juxtaposed with a strong LLJ at 850 mb (40-50 kt per the 12z GFS / 30-40 kt per the ECMWF), though the GFS has a similar speed on the LLJ, albeit placed further SW at 00z on Thursday. The enhanced LLJ will allow for more robust moisture advection in advance of this stolid system. These dynamics should correlate to produce effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-70 kts, along with quixotic SRH values on the order 350-450 m2**s2 at 0-1 km (450 – 600 m2**s2 at 0-3 km).
For a more detailed analysis with graphics, a full write-up is available at Convective Addiction.
Taking a look at the incoming dynamics for Friday’s setup (looking at some specifics from THUR due to the fact that the NAM isn’t out beyond 84 hrs attm), a strong upper level jet streak will eject northeastward as the low pressure system advances towards the Great Lakes region. Strong upper level dynamics will be juxtaposed with a strong LLJ at 850 mb (40-50 kt per the 12z GFS / 30-40 kt per the ECMWF), though the GFS has a similar speed on the LLJ, albeit placed further SW at 00z on Thursday. The enhanced LLJ will allow for more robust moisture advection in advance of this stolid system. These dynamics should correlate to produce effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-70 kts, along with quixotic SRH values on the order 350-450 m2**s2 at 0-1 km (450 – 600 m2**s2 at 0-3 km).
For a more detailed analysis with graphics, a full write-up is available at Convective Addiction.
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