05/07/05: TALK: Southern/Central Plains

[nickgrillo]

We've made a decision to make DDC south towards Woodward, OK our chosen area.

LOL, and I agree with that person who mentioned that whoever won't chase in KS/OK because of the '2%' will be good. Everybody has gotta remember what the SPC's outlook stand for... Today is not gonna have widespread supercells/tornadoes (and they still say "tornado" for the SRN Plains), they're gonna be really isolated...

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

One of the things that I notice with these discussions is that one's forecast target is heavily influenced by geographic proximity. I do this too; I live in Nebraska, so you don't see me targeting, say, Alabama very often.

With all of the excited chatter about Texas and OK and KS, Nebraksa and South Dakota would seem to be the better targets for today. (Now watch me eat my words as Texas gets an outbreak or something!) Probably better for chasers, too, as I'm guessing OK and TX on a weekend in May is chaser circus, whereas I'm lucky to come across two or three chasers on a typical Nebraskan chase. Not sure if I'm going north or west (or northwest) of here today, but I sure won't be going south.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

Well, things have changed for me today. My wife needed to go into work, and my daughter has a 15:00 soccer game. So, this puts me into “interceptâ€￾ mode instead of chase. Fortunately, my original target of se SD and ne NE seems to be verifying today. If I can exit Omaha by 16:15 I may have 45 – 60 min to get on an already developing storm. This gives me a 50 – 70 mile range, maybe more if things are slow to develop. Right now I’m looking for a storm to initiate invof Pickstown, SD and move east along the warm front, or invof O’Neill, NE and move ne until it intercepts the front and makes a right turn. If this scenario unfolds I can make good time up I-29 and make an intercept in extreme se SD or nw IA. And then there always the chance a storm will develop in central NE and come to me. Good luck to all today. Hopefully the dryline will be good to those down south.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Looks like I'm going west today. RUC finds a little shear bullseye near Kearney this afternoon. Looks like the clouds have cleared out nicely, too.

 

[B Ozanne]

Parked in Liberal, KS right now getting data. I'm thinking about moving south back to Shamrock area.

...we had an unavoidable collison with a large male pheasant on the way up from Guyman. Sad, sad ending.

edit: SPC just bumped the eastern TX pandhandle to 5% for tornadoes, extending slightly into far western OK.

 

[Jason Montano]

I am at the Western Inn in Shamrock, they have WiFi and a nice little restaurant. I am going to stick around the Eastern TX panhandle area. The NAM paints a pretty decent picture for today around here. I would really like to see dp's rise a few degrees and with 60 dp's 50miles south of here it may happen. Good luck to all!

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

I'll probably see you in a bit. Leaving Norman shortly for Shamrock.

Aaron

 

[Glen Romine]

Don't have time to post a discussion today, but I really like Clarendon, TX area right now. Good luck to all who go out.

Glen

 

[Dick McGowan]

mike and i are in salina right now.........holiday inn express........probably going to head north into nebraska........still heavy cloud cover here.....

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Nice to see a clearly defined dryline on vis sat in west-central NE, KS, OK today. I may head straight west from here over to the jct of 36 and 81 in Kansas, just to stay on the unconventional side of things. In the immortal words of Garth Algar: "Where? ... I'm low on gas and you need a jacket."

 

[Verne Carlson]

I'm in Ogallala, NE right now reading the MD that just went up for this area and north of here. Grabbing some gas and a bite to eat and then heading to North Platte.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Well - just as I was ready to head out the door, I was called to work this evening. No way I can get back from out west in time. Would be willing to provide limited nowcasting support for one or two people this afternoon. Drop me a line offlist and we'll try to put you in position. (Unless I can squirm out of the work gig, in which case I'll be on the road shortly.) email [email protected].

 

[Mickey Ptak]

I am sitting here in Shamrock and boy let me tell you I have seen a lot of chasers so far. At this point it is mostly cloudy in Shamrock but a quick look at the Sat imagery shows a line of CU's just east of AMA. I am waiting on my partner to arrive so I will be here for a little while.


I am geared up and on fire. Lets chase!

Mick

 

[nickgrillo]

We're now in SHAMROCK...

Have been seeing quite a few chasers out here (major convergence)...

It's looking pretty good...

By the way, we are currently in the Best Western parking lot...

 

[Scott Olson]

Currently in Huron, SD. Will contuntie about 50 miles SE and then stop and wait for approach of better lift. Right now the Td is 59 and It's pretty warm with a clear sky. Good luck to all who are chasing.

-Scott Olson.