04/24/04 FCST: MO/W IL

[Marc Dahmer]

Continuing the Downplay...

Well, seeing as how things are continuing to look "crappy"...a few of us have decided to head west from Columbia to see if that dry slot can destabilize things up near MO/KS/NE border, where those high helicities are currently located. Hope to see a few of you out there today.


Marc D.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Glad to see all the negativity ... I'm convinced that there should be a negativity parameter with chasers ... the higher the negativity, the greater the likelihood of severe weather. Would go something like:

<100 = generally positive, SVR not so likely
101-299 = mildly negative ... SVR possible
300-499 = negative outlook ... SVR quite likely
>500 = highly negative ... look for SVR, tornadoes, hail - the works

hehe

This one would rate about 297, I'd say. Glad it's a backdoor chase, because it's not likely that I would drive ... BUT ... I have to say that the warm sector is clearing very nicely to the west ... we still have quite a while for this thing to move northward. I look for this to be a late afternoon chase with some cells that can hug the front.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_RUC_1000-500...PRPTHK_03HR.gif

My happy map for the moment ... RUC2 showing precip breaking out across target.

I needed to add one more parameter to the above list:

<50 = high risk day, chasers giddy - 0 risk of SVR

Just to bump us up a couple of notches on the negativity param., I'll add that it's still RAINING here right now ... yes ... DRIZZLE and rain under the grunge. (was supposed to have stopped at 1:00 p.m. and here it is 3:00 p.m.) ... there, that should be sufficient to put us over 300.

 

[Matthew Havin]

<50 = high risk day, chasers giddy - 0 risk of SVR

........sounds like April 6, 2001 to me. The theory is true!

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/mo/discussion.html

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Well - this doesn't seem to be improving much. There's a line of weak convection ahead of the CF that has been struggling to develop. It's on the western side of the grunge in already cold air. Hopefully it falls apart quickly and doesn't provide any more rain-cooling. Destablization is looking more and more iffy ... dropped to 2% tor risk, now. Storm motion looks like it will again be parallel to the front if it can get off the ground, and will be moving fairly quickly if any of this early stuff is an indication.

According to outlook, anything that does manage to get going will be low-topped ... there may be a couple of minis yet, will have to wait and see. But losing what confidence had been there -

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Went ahead and started a NOW thread, though confidence remains pretty low. First MD has been issued for target area for low topped supercells and weak tornadoes.

 

[Kevin Askew]

Squally activity moving towards Poplar Bluff MO. Some structure but nothing has got going to any measure. Some rapid development east of Hopkinsville KY. looked interesting. Just nothing im too interested in driving after...yet :?
Kevin

 

[Kevin Askew]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0472.html

Maybe things can pick up a bit??? I feel like Steve Martin in the Jerk movie about the phone book...."The new md is here"!! The new MD is here" !! :lol:

 

[Kevin Askew]

Just got back from SEMO area Ill make it short. 2 reports to WFO PAH. 2 very nice wall clouds and a funnel more than half way to ground near Grand tower near Carbondale IL.. Good chase day on that warm front. No touchdowns but near Ellsinore MO confirmed touchdowns. 6 or 8 injuries reported im sad to say but local & SPC with local tv did a great job during this event. Just wish we would have left about an hour earlier!!
Kevin

 

[Scott A. Kampas]

Today had a lot of things going for it, but there was just no adequate recovery. Even with the incipient clearing in KS, I decided a nogo a little before noon. I'm taking every weekend chance I can get, but the negatives seemed to point strongly to a nonevent. I didn't really seriously consider SE MO/S IL though it looked like there would a better shot at sups and there does appear to have been a few touchdowns.

Scott

 

[Kevin Askew]

Yeah I didnt think we was going anywhere until the last meso came out, then the first warnings. Then we left. Yes although there are touches, I dont think it will get higher than F2 damage.
Kev

 

[Kevin Askew]

...PRELIMINARY STORM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT FOR NORTHWEST WAYNE COUNTY
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
* EVENT DATE: SATURDAY APRIL 24 2004

* EVENT TYPE: F1 TORNADO

* ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS: 100 MPH

* ESTIMATED TIME: TORNADO FORMED IN WAYNE COUNTY AT APPROXIMATELY
552 PM AND REMAINED ON THE GROUND UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 558 PM.

* EVENT LOCATION: FROM 4 MILE SOUTH OF PATTERSON ON HWY "B" TO
PATTERSON AT THE JUNCTION OF HWY 34 AND "FF".

* DAMAGE AREA DIMENSIONS: AVERAGE = 100 YARDS WIDE
4 MILES LONG

* INJURIES: 0

* DEATHS: NONE

* DAMAGE: TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN, ROOF DAMAGE TO SEVERAL HOMES
AND BUSINESSES.

...PRELIMINARY STORM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT FOR EASTERN CARTER COUNTY OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
* EVENT DATE: SATURDAY APRIL 24 2004

* EVENT TYPE: F2 TORNADO

* ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS: 150 MPH

* ESTIMATED TIME: TORNADO FORMED IN CARTER COUNTY AT APPROXIMATELY
512 PM AND REMAINED ON THE GROUND UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 530 PM.

* EVENT LOCATION: FROM 1 MILE SOUTH OF US HWY 60 AND COUNTY HWY
233 IN EASTERN CARTER COUNTY...T0 1 MILE WEST OF THE TOWN OF
ELSINORE IN EASTERN CARTER COUNTY TO JUST INSIDE THE CARTER/WAYNE
COUNTY LINE ON COUNTY ROAD 365.

* DAMAGE AREA DIMENSIONS: AVERAGE = 1/10 OF A MILE WIDE
7 2/3 MILES LONG

* INJURIES: 5

* DEATHS: NONE

* DAMAGE: TREES AND POWERLINE DOWN, ROOF DAMAGE TO SEVERAL
HOMES.


Helicities that were there were right on target for tornado intensities. Same cell that we was on in cape, Jackson County. Wish I would have at least tried to get a few pics of wall & funnel with lightning flash but didnt think pics would come out.
Kevin