Matthew Havin
May possibly setup to be an active weather day Saturday in central MO/ W IL. Post your thoughts.......
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- Weather and Chasing
- Target Area
Kevin Askew
EF2
DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS OR CELLS MERGING INTO
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH GREATEST THREAT BEING WIND DAMAGE AND/OR
TORNADOES. WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED BY STRONG MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION ACROSS NWRN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...NCEP
ETAKF POINT FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND LOW LFC
WILL EXIST NEAR WARM FRONT/TRIPLE POINT EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM CNTRL
MO AND INTO WRN IL DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. IF THIS
ENVIRONMENT CAN DEVELOP COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE-BASED STORMS...A
SMALL MDT RISK AREA MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
Say my "Preliminary" target will be around Randolph Co. Perry Co. Illinois around 2:00pm. But this is a little far in advance. Will probably sww where the most daytime heating if any, occurs near this area.
Scott A. Kampas
EF4
- Joined
- Dec 10, 2003
- Messages
- 303
This is rushed, found the time to do this in about 15 min before I go to bed, so add your input, say where I'm wrong, but don't be too cruel as I'm not at my best ;-)...
If the models are to be believed, tomorrow won't do much. However, if we get some insolation, that'll ratchet up instability and we could be in business for tornadic supercells. Everything else seems to be there. It's possible the precip is being overforecasted, the models might be experiencing some convective feedback with the copious moisture and lift. A midlevel dry intrusion, noticed by SPC, could make things interesting as well. However, there already is a sickening amount of nasty precip from Missouri to Mexico at about 2 AM (which could also retard northward advance of sfc WF). We'll see... Area would be ahead of deepening negatively-tilted low or somewhere along warm front from northern/central Missouri into west-central Illinois. There is good jet structure with the streak on the lee see of the trough, plenty of lift and moisture, nice LLJ and WAA, great directional shear and just enough but not too much speed shear. H500 subsidence between two jet streaks is possible, but the ETA might be out to lunch, and that should be compensated for by other lift (incl. some decent divergence at H250). GFS takes the low more south and more east, but overall, the progs remain show at least a shot at some convective bliss, if we can get sufficient insolation and instability. Since everything went right only last Tuesday and I can chase, I don't expect everything to go right this time.
Scott
Kevin Askew
EF2
Kinda my take as well, Im stickin to my guns with SW -W Illini line. Low track does seem more to south of St. Louis area. It all depends on cloud cover along & south of warm advection for sure
KevinLarry J. Kosch
Where's My Target Area??
Post has been deleted.
LJK.Mike Hollingshead
Looking at an area from Falls City NE east into, dare I say, nw MO. Please god don't let this pan out into a chase. Please clouds, stay put...PLEASE! NW MO does not want me and I'm ok with that. Not a terrible little setup if clearing began really soon.
Edit:
Might have to revise this a bit nw of Falls City.
http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/mesoana.../s3_loops/pmsl/
That sfc low looks to want to lift nnw, which would be SWEET....given some clearing of course. Waving bye bye to nw MO, I hope.
Scott A. Kampas
EF4
- Joined
- Dec 10, 2003
- Messages
- 303
NW Misery. We all say we won't do it, but then we end up there again eventually. As for me, resistance holds but could turn out to be futile. E KS/SE NE or NW MO.
ScottMike Peregrine
EF5
Haven't spent a lot of time on this, but here's a preliminary take on the situation. My target remains the four corners of NE KS, NW MO, SW IA and SE NE. Things that I'm concerned with - INSTABILITY. We have good wind environment and 0-1km shear, we have moisture ... but how will CAPE turn out? After reading the outlook language, I would think this will be our most important ingredient today. I'm having a hard time getting RUC2 to give me an idea of instability in the target area today (Skew-Ts that I pull up keep registering with 0 CAPE, which is no good), so I'm going to have to base this off of satellite.
Biggest concern: The grunge/cloud canopy ahead of this system is extensive. The canopy currently extends across the entire state of Iowa, the entire state of Missouri, and most all of Nebraska and Kansas, as well as eastern Oklahoma. The nearest break is currently situated over western Oklahoma just east of the panhandle. It's very hard to believe that the grunge will clear out in time to make way for really good instability to establish itself. Just how quickly will the warm sector be able to recover after the passage of the warm front. I guess we've seen it happen, but I have to wonder if this system really has the ability to swing hard enough to clear the warm sector sufficiently in time to build high instabilities.
I'm making room for a possible chase today, and like Mike and Scott, I'm hoping it's not around here, but would much rather NE KS or SE Nebraska. Target today will be the warm sector riding the warm front (wherever it ends up) tucked about 30-40 miles east of the surface low, most likely.
Jeff Miller
EF5
Looks like I will be going to SE Nebraska. Still have concerns concerning grunge and wether or not we can clear skies enough with the drier air to allow sufficient heating. But with a 5% SPC tornado threat, and enough of a chance to go, Im going to give it a shot. Still trying to pin out what time I should get there. **If conditions change to the worse I will call this off.**Mike Hollingshead
Ryan Pfannkuch
partly sunny being reported at Salina and Newton KS now...still a ways to go though to catch up with the big-time helicity that Mike just pointed out.
This will be a long-shot day for sure for the NE KS MO IA border region, but the shear and LCL heights are sure nice. Do any of you think Tuesday's IL debacle might be playing into the thinking at least a little bit?Mike Hollingshead
Some decent clearing happening now in central to nc KS. Hopefully we can get this to quickly overspread the wf where the shear is located.
Edit:
Reality is starting to kick in. This is seeming more and more stupid. There that should jinx it the right way.Mike Peregrine
EF5
Thanks for bringing the thread back in harmony with the universe, Mike. To help do my part, I will say that this whole thing is just really falling apart.
Now ... having said that ... I'm starting to get more excited. After looking at those pretty helicities and the clearing in KS now (are pics ok in here? - if not, I'll be happy to remove -)
<img src=http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v143/mikeperegrine/sat.jpg>
Wondering now about the exact path the low decides to take ... it keeps looking to me like it's going to cut straight through extreme NE KS/NW MO, but I'm HOPING it is just a bit further west.Mike Hollingshead
SFC low over about Concordia right now 19z. Still drifting north. WF along the KS/NE border. Really could of used clearing earlier and further north...oh well.
Jeff Miller
EF5
My thoughts. I don't think we're gonna get enough heating in the area of enhanced helicity....so I'm gonna bug out on this one.
Now watch it all explode. If it does, thank me because I decided to stay homeSimilar threads
