04/08/08 FCST: IL / MO / AR / TX

[Danny Neal]

My initial target today was Mt. Pulaski, IL, and I am still sticking with it. Whether or not I will be out there is a whole nother story. Warm front is surging north and the obs I have seen from EC IL are clear to partly cloudy with temps and dews slowly creeping up there. While I have a huge feeling that the tornado threat will be too conditional south of I 70, I think there will be some low topped supercells from Springfield to Danville. We may get a tornado or two out of that, but more likely a marginal damaging wind event.

 

[Jarrod Cook]

I am thinking along the lines of John. Not too excited anymore, and don't plan on gambling time and money on such a marginal threat for now, unless something changes soon. Models appear to be over-doing the CAPE forecast in my opinion, and I'd rather not have to go all the way to SE IL/I-70 just to get into the 500 J/Kg CAPE. Plus low clouds and rain shield moving in are discouraging.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

I decided to sit this one out too. Unless some drastic clearing occurs in the wake of current convection in IL, show should be limited to well south of I-70.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Painful day to watch unfold. If this weren't so local for me I'd be sitting this one out myself. I decided to head over to Decatur and am sitting in Macon, just south of Decatur on Highway 51. I figure I've only driven 40 minutes so it's not a huge deal if I bust, but at the same time if things clear out and convection gets a shot I'm close enough to commit. Anything that goes will have a nice NNE component so I can drop south pretty quickly to intercept.

The precip in Illinois is bummer, but there's a glimmer of hope with the clearing that's starting to occur in eastern Missouri ahead of the low. It's barely early enough in the afternoon that I've got a little bit of hope remaining that if we can get the clearing to broaden we might yet get something to develop. Until that appears likely I don't plan to head any further from home.

 

[beaudodson]

I am not overly excited down here in Southern Illinois or Western Kentucky. At 2 p.m. we are still socked in with clouds. It has been that way for most of the day.

SPC analysis page shows some of the composite indexes starting to make a move upward across eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee. Paducah radar is showing a few thunderstorms trying to pop in the Bootheel of Missouri.

CAPE values are limited. The SPC analysis page shows a pop of 1000 CAPE over West TN. A 500 contour shows up from the Bootheel of Missouri into eastern Arkansas.

The RUC is showing a line of storms from Central IL southward into TN at 0z tonight.

Looking at the satellite loop - not impressed with clearing. Most of the region appears to be socked in. I was thinking there might be some chance for a secondary line of storms (outside of this crud moving through Eastern MO) to form this afternoon. I suppose that is even in question. There is "some" clearing in Missouri - behind the first line. Not impressive though. Keep an eye on the region from central and east central Missouri into the St Louis area and then west central Illinois. Clouds are trying to break up in that area. Might just be enough.

We really need the clouds to either break up or move out (see above comment on area that is showing some promise). The lastest surface map shows the low near northwest Arkansas with the stationary front draped across southern MO into southern Illinois.

For the short term it appears that the storms in the Missouri Bootheel have the best potential.

edit: SPC has a meso discussion for portions of AR/TX. Lot of sun across portions of southern Arkansas. They are defin better off than we are with instability.

edit: Satellite at 3 p.m. showing a line of CU across southwest Missouri. Radar shows it nicely as well.

 

[John Farley]

At 3 p.m., I am slightly less discouraged. Higher CAPE, warmer temps, and higher dewpoints are finally advecting rather quickly northward, and a small clearing area has formed west of STL. There is also a new line of storms forming roughly southward from the low around Lake of the Ozarks southward along the cold front. Given the destabilizing environment these storms are moving into, they could intensify. The shear would suggest potential for rotation, if the winds near and north/west of STL can stay backed, though they are veering closer to the front - and the forcing around the front may make the predominant storm mode linear. But since it is moving my general direction, I have the option of sitting and waiting, which is good because I have a lot to do and can really only do a fairly short chase amyway.

EDIT - Just looked at the SPC's updated Day 1 outlook - they are less bullish on the potential for the activity along the front to intensify than what I suggest above, just talking about gusty winds. So, maybe I am wishcasting a bit - we'll see before long. When referring to the new line of "storms" I had not looked at the lightning data, and SPCs description of them as "showers" led me to do so - and I see there is no lightning with this band yet. Not a good sign.