Good morning again from Pratt, Kansas where the current temp/dewpoint is 57 over 54 with 14mph winds coming out of the southeast. I just got off the phone with Mike's Auto in regards to our car; we're expecting to hear back from them in the next 15 to 20 minutes in regards to the car, so hopefully that means we should be on our way. This would serve nicely so I could go back to bed!
![Eek! :eek: :eek:](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
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Early check of the forecasts seems to indicate us being in a good place. We're probably gonna stay to the northeast of the SFC low and hopefully have good position as storms fire. I imagine the window of opportunity for tornatic activity is going to be rather small, so we're going to try and get on storms on initiation. The vorticity associated with the low coming across southern Kansas will make up for the lack of shear and probably give us a chance for a couple small, short-lived tornadoes before storms congeal into a nasty blob. Moisture is already doing well with current Tds in the mid 50s, so hopefully on S/SE winds, the moisture can continue to increase a bit. Instability will be in good form with estimated CAPEs in the 1500-2000J/kg with temps closing in on 70. Right now, looking outside, I'm being blinded by the sun, so we're sitting in some clearing. Satellite right now indicating a stream of clouds all around us.
HWOs and AFDs over DDC are indicating this best chance lying northeast of a line from Ness City back towards Pratt, so I imagine any moving we do today will consist of us following a path right along that line. We have to be quick to be in position as these storms will fire quick and early and quickly congeal into a blobby mess, which will likely reduce the tornado threat and leave us sitting in the hail.
It's going to be a narrow window which I think we're in good position for; its just a matter of being in the right place in that narrow window we do get. I'm sure we're going to see some hail and maybe a couple weak, short-lived tornadoes. Initially, we're going to position ourselves east/northeast of the SFC low on a hill somewhere and wait for storms to start firing, probably moving in at them from the west.
This all assuming we can fix my car in time! ;o)