03/31/06 NOW: IN/MI/OH

[Eric Graham]

Tornado Watch 115 has just been issued as of 2:40pm local time for northwestern Indiana, Southern Michigan and Western Ohio until 10pm. I'm surprised no one is talking about this system. Don't right today off just yet. Is any one other than me heading out? Currently here in Lafayette, IN its 72F with sunny skies and brizzy. Heading up north in an about an hour or so.

 

[John Thurston]

Looking at it now. Looks like numerous small cells from N of Grand Rapids south past state line.

They are heading NE so heading right for me. Will watch - either they grow and will cross 96 fully mature or will go linear. If they can stay separate and grow I will head for best looking one.

 

[rdale]

Weak rotation possible in the cell near BTL, but I never started a topic because I never was excited. Too much shear for too little CAPE, and that appears to be what's happening as we're getting a ton of short-lived cells that don't develop before getting ripped apart.

No signs of any reason for things to become more unstable over MI, so if anything I think a chase zone would be over IND-EVV area but even there it's going to need a little boost.

 

[John Thurston]

I agree - looks like a popcorn line. Enough energy to pop but not sustain/grow.

BTL? Where is that.

THinking I will watch cell north of Coldwater. Seems like last year that was hotspot.

It is also has somewhat some free breathing and it should hit me head on or so.

Stuff on the far west looks like it is going linear.

Guess we may have to wait till the rest comes over to see if it pops.

 

[rdale]

Battle Creek - where the 1/2" hail was reported. Wouldn't surprise me to see that the only report out of MI!

Latest SPC mesoplot shows best helicities staying south of the state line now...

 

[Ryan Chandler]

I'm sitting here in Indianapolis waiting to see what happens. CU field continues to develop into SCentral IL. DP's in the mid 50s, LIs to -5, and Cape 1k to 2k. I'm noticing a little more directional shear in the last hour and helicity values continue to rise. We'll see, I'm hoping for isolated cells but I'm worried they will quickly develop into a line.

 

[John Thurston]

Looks like things are popping to your NW but heading NE. :angry:

Severe warned for here!

 

[rdale]

Severe warned for here!
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Not for you, that won't bother Brighton. Not getting a whole lot from AE's MEHS algorithm - most around 1/2-3/4" but the storm near BTL is looking at 1+"

 

[Robert Dewey]

We had what appeared to be a mini bow echo blow through with some penny (or slightly larger) sized hail here in Rochester Hills. The lightning was non-stop. Overall, it was pretty sweet for not even expecting it (I wasn't aware of the tornado watch until about an hour ago).

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Highest imminent tornado threat currently appears to be with the LEWP moving into Jennings County, Indiana. That storm screams "tornado" on both reflectivity and velocity.