03/21/05 FCST: OK/TX/MO/AR/LA

[George Tincher]

My latest thinking would put me in the Paris, TX area for a target. It's not far S of the Hugo, OK target I had picked early yesterday morning. But I just like how everything is stacked over that area. Plus, being just a bit farther South could aide in getting a bit more moisture to work with. Iniation will likely occur a bit W of this area, but that would be ok, as I'd rather not be right on the storms at iniation in this case anyway. Being in front just a bit would allow you to adjust and work in on them and I don't see them doing much until they reach points as far E as Paris anyway. Hopefully the storms can stay isolated until they hit these good windfields. If so, they may go nuts.

Farther N in OK, I have no clue. But I just don't like the marginal dewpoints up there and would opt for being farther S. Either way it's a tradeoff. One area gives you better severe probabilities while the other gives you better visibility.

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

Note for those of you checking out the 7z RUC run... RUC got hosed by a bad ob along the red river.

[Broken External Image]:http://www.convectionconnection.com/rucroh.gif

I'm too lazy to post the time series out to 12hours, but you can see how the entire dp field gets whacked because of the initialization. Pretty cool. As a result the CAPE field is also tricked out.

Aaron

 

[George Tincher]

Well, things have taken a turn I really don't like. Storms are already firing as of 4:45 AM CST along a line extending from NW of Dallas to SW of Dallas. I'm not sure yet whether a second batch of storms will fire later, but it appears this may be the main show. Considering it's starting well ahead of schedule, I think that makes today that much more tough.

 

[Billy Griffin]

" squall-linish " stuff setting up for the southern part of this storm, with possibly more discrete cells near the TP - a la right here at home... central Oklahoma. That's my play, anyway. I'm not going to drive 250+ miles into hill country and be socked in with extensive clouds today... I'll just stay right here in Norman and wait for the show if it happens.

This reminds me of a chase earlier last year... chased a squall line all the way from Childress, TX to near DFW. Finally produced some small tornadoes, but also had a bunch of stuff fire in Oklahoma that we MISSED because we were too far south. If I recall, I think we were even upgraded to high risk that day in Oklahoma. Looks like almost the same type system and track, so maybe I'll learn my lesson and just stay closer to home. Besides, there's still A LOT of chasing left, and I don't want to deplete the George Bush fuel expenses too early. :shock:

Good luck everyone, but just think I'll stick right here and hope the triple point does something good. I like the surface winds backing up here also.

 

[Jeff Wear]

agree with those who have mentioned northern OK - and don't be discouraged by the low dewpoints and weaker upper level winds. Cold core setups are notorious for producing brief, weak tornadoes with dewpoints in the low 50s and winds aloft that appear less favorable than those in more conventional supercell setups.

here's a good paper (PDF format) detailing the climatology of tornadoes in cold core lows.....

http://ams.confex.com/pdfpapers/81563.pdf

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

AND bear in mind that there may be a sneak event in extreme northern OK/southern KS with the cod-core low.KR

Cod-core? You guys have fun, I'll be sitting on my Perch here in Nebraska. Hope you don't get road-Scrod and that you don't get bit in the Bass by the topography. Good luck to all who venture Trout. I'm stuck in this Crappie wrap-around cold rain!

 

[Shane Adams]

After morning analysis, I'm seriously considering playing the LOW in northern OK. My main wrench in this particular set of gears was the obvious lack of moisture relative to the Arklatex area, but current surface obs show low/mid 50s throughout most of central/northern OK. Add in the best helicity the day will see, and it looks to me like another sneak-in-the-back door type of set-up, in the tradition of a May 16, 2003 or a November 10, 2004. My one concern is the total lack of anything at 500mb, although the 700/850 barbs are doing Daytona 500 laps around the LOW center. Might that be enough? Maybe the most important fact to consider with this possible target is visibility.

Moving south, I like the US82 corridor between Gainsville and Paris as a starting point, should we decide to play the jungles. UVVs all point to this area, as does the best helicity in the southern target region by 0Z. I don't like areas further south and west towards Waco/Austin because of the veering of surface winds to the SSW. These winds are better-backed the further north you go towards the corner of NE Texas.

Still undecided, but seriously leaning towards playing that LOW...

 

[Karen Politte]

After morning analysis, I'm seriously considering playing the LOW in northern OK. My main wrench in this particular set of gears was the obvious lack of moisture relative to the Arklatex area, but current surface obs show low/mid 50s throughout most of central/northern OK. Add in the best helicity the day will see, and it looks to me like another sneak-in-the-back door type of set-up, in the tradition of a May 16, 2003 or a November 10, 2004. My one concern is the total lack of anything at 500mb, although the 700/850 barbs are doing Daytona 500 laps around the LOW center. Might that be enough? Maybe the most important fact to consider with this possible target is visibility.

Moving south, I like the US82 corridor between Gainsville and Paris as a starting point, should we decide to play the jungles. UVVs all point to this area, as does the best helicity in the southern target region by 0Z. I don't like areas further south and west towards Waco/Austin because of the veering of surface winds to the SSW. These winds are better-backed the further north you go towards the corner of NE Texas.

Still undecided, but seriously leaning towards playing that LOW...

Totally agree with Shane. I'm also caught between the devil and the deep blue sea.

Mmmkay - let's start first - the convection in OK/TX. overnight and into this morning was going to happen and we all knew it. It was NOT the main show :lol: ! I couldn't care less about it and unless it begins to affect moisture return I've already forgot it.

I'm going to stumble off and do my own forecast now FWIW. I am interested by the many on here I see who are not feeling like plunging into the machette-lands and who might be staying back for any n-cntrl OK surprise. Some folks are concerned with moisture, but with it THAT cold aloft you don't NEED globs of caribbean moisture. I think I'll go read some Jon Davies now....

KR

 

[Karen Politte]

Totally agree with Shane. I'm also caught between the devil and the deep blue sea.

Mmmkay - let's start first - the convection in OK/TX. overnight and into this morning was going to happen and we all knew it. It was NOT the main show :lol: ! I couldn't care less about it and unless it begins to affect moisture return I've already forgot it.

KR

:lol: :roll:

Well - I might be eating my hat sometime soon. I've just taken a glance around the radars this morning for the first decent time, and I don't really like what I see. There is a second band of precip. and thunderstorms moving through the D/FW area right now - which will probably be in the NE TX target area shortly this morning. Problem is - will all this stuff have enough time to clear out and allow for the heating/modification of the environment before expected initiation of the dryline this afternoon? It sure looks like it could be a grunge-fest, after all.

KR

 

[Tim Johnson]

Sherman TX area (home for me) there is some clearing as of 9:30 AM. Temp right now is 60F and TD is 60F. The LLJ can be seen racing to the north, with surface winds around 18 out of the south. Its still overcast off to the west, but sun is reaching the ground through the breaks in the clouds.

Being that I live near Sherman area, I will just sit put and wait for the DL to come to me. Seems the upper level winds are more favorable here than farther north. Hopefully it will be a decent day.

 

[Karen Politte]

Early morning forecast open (and likely) to change:

I'm more than a little bit interested in seeing that the "obvious" target of Paris Texas has a dewpoint two degrees less (52) than Alva, Oklahoma (54) right now. YES I know that NE TX. will be under raincooled outflow air for a while yet and YES I know that NE TX. looks impressive - but I'm not sold on it, that's for sure.

Heeding people's concerns about cold outflow with any cold-core low storms that form - I must say that I just can't ignore it. RUC breaks out an area of dashed convective precip. in the Lookout, OK area by 00Z, brings the surface low into the Dewey/Custer Co. OK areas by that time, and has definite trends (obviously) of wrapping moisture & CAPE around the low towards Lookout, OK by this same timeframe.

Given a choice totally of my own making, I would opt for NW OK today. I'm not blown away by what I see happening as far as moisture/return in northeastern TX., and I'd rather be standing on some nice flat Prairie someplace watching an isolated cell that maybe didn't tornado, than blundering around with my machette with a total of 20degrees of view directly above my head in NE TX., while getting battered about the head by some supposedly-tornadic supercell that turned into a piece of pear-shaped outflow on me. (I'd also rather not spend $100+ on gas getting there).

All that said this is probably all moot - as I will go whichever way my husband does.......but it sure is fun wishcasting.

KR

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

I'm still up in the air... split between here (cold core crap) or Sherman TX and points east. Although dp in Paris is only 52, points just west are in the upper 50s... much better than the OK setup. While everything tells me to stick with NE TX (I think it will clear out enough to miss a grungefest), the jungle and gas prices do favor sticking in this neck of the woods.

We'll see where I end up

Aaron

 

[Reed Timmer]

cold core

I am working the cold core setup all the way. I don't see anything good happening in NE Texas until after dark in the form of a broken squall line...and it will probably be in Louisiana by then.

We are starting to get some breaks in the clouds here in central Oklahoma...any heating we can get underneath these upper-level temps could lead to a crazy cold-core funnel outbreak.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Gabe and I are heading down I35 towards Gainesville, then likely eastward towards Sherman and Paris. The two lines of thunderstorms in TX are partially intercepting moisture return, though all models continue to show ~60 Tds to the red river by early afternoon... Clearing and insolation are occurring to the west of the 2nd line of showers/thunderstorms, so this looks good. Good luck to all those going out today!

 

[Shane Adams]

It looks to me like the storms in progress are the day'show. A look at current surface obs show the dryline is right behind all of this and doesn't look to be slowing down at all. I call these situations "the squeeze," where the DL gets accelrated on one end and sweeps diagonally across the area, pinching off one half of the chase target area (in today's case, NE TX).

My original target of Paris looks good now, but it looks to be behind everything by the time we'd reach it. This seems to be opening the door for OK, where the backed winds and (somewhat meager) moisture seem to combine the best for the longest period of time. Also, RUC breaks out some spotty precip between the 18-21Z time frame, although its gone by 0Z. I just don't think NE TX is an option at this point if you're still in Norman (which we are). I was expecting a second round of storms, but I'm afraid they're already underway.