03/21/05 FCST: OK/TX/MO/AR/LA

[Mark Sefried]

I am still liking the area bounded by Palestine, Centerville, and Crockett, TX area the best per tonights 0z eta. The winds aloft from 200 mb down (I said 200 mb up earlier, lol--oops) are still forecasted to be best across that general region along with better moisture than what is being forecasted further North. Should be interesting how everything pans out as this has the potential to be the biggest outbreak of severe weather this year so far. All I can say is get that damn warm weather up here into Central Illinois so I can at least venture out and practice using my new digital cameras I bought over the winter

 

[Scott Olson]

Im in a parking lot in Kansas City now hoping to make Oklahoma by 1 am. Based on latest NAM im going with the SE OK. Area further south my be more favorable but tree density could be a problem. Good luck to all who are chasing our first spring storm.

-Scott.

 

[Alex Lamers]

Scott good choice. You may want to venture at times close to or into NE TX or SW AR depending on how things evolve. I would have set Texarkana as my target but I think SE OK should get in on the action. 00Z NAM still looks favorable for that area. Best combo of instability...extreme divergence...omega fields and shear is over extreme NE TX...SW AR and of course SW OK.

Best of luck.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Shane Adams]

Im in a parking lot in Kansas City now hoping to make Oklahoma by 1 am. Based on latest NAM im going with the SE OK. Area further south my be more favorable but tree density could be a problem. Good luck to all who are chasing our first spring storm.

-Scott.

Now that's a chaser. Good luck bro!!!

 

[Karen Politte]

Im in a parking lot in Kansas City now hoping to make Oklahoma by 1 am. Based on latest NAM im going with the SE OK. Area further south my be more favorable but tree density could be a problem. Good luck to all who are chasing our first spring storm.

-Scott.

Now that's a chaser. Good luck bro!!!

AND bear in mind that there may be a sneak event in extreme northern OK/southern KS with the cod-core low.

If at all possible, and disregarding the above-mentioned possibility, I'd have to aim for the Paris TX/Hwy 82 in NE TX. area. I've heard others say that they don't notice the trees and hills when chasing SE Oklahoma......but I'd avoid that area like the plague.

KR

KR

 

[Billy Griffin]

I'm here in Norman, and it's sad to think that this rediculous cost of gas is making me hope that this storm slows down or shows some sign that the initiation will be close to I-35 in central OK.

Keeping to the weather discussion and avoiding fuel price chat, I did notice the TP setting up just north of OKC according to the Norman NWS graphic. Sure would be nice if this would be the case and I could chase within a 100 mile (one~two tanks of gas) radius.

Anyway, it's also nice to see the first chase day come around !! Funny, just days ago, the latest posts were discussing how dull and drum the year had begun... "careful what you wish for, eh?" Tomorrow could do more than make up for a slow March so far!

Anyone perhaps interested in "teaming up" for a chase tomorrow afternoon, please get in touch with me at [email protected] or [email protected]. I'll furnish the vehicle, of course.

Good luck to all chasing tomorrow... stay safe and have fun! I hate the thought of going into the hills and trees of SE OK... especially trying to navigate curvy roads with storms moving @ 30-45 mph !!

 

[Gabe Garfield]

I'd have to aim for the Paris TX/Hwy 82 in NE TX. area

That's exactly where my target is! LOL. Best route from Norman to Paris is I-40, then south down the Indian Nations Turnpike to Paris. Takes about 4 hrs, according to mapquest.

Btw, the Purcell profiler shows a 55 kt (edit) wind at 850 mb!!! That's definitely stronger than I thought it would get...winds are absolutely cranking. Moisture return should begin in earnest riding those winds...mid 60 Tds along the Gulf Coast currently. No cirrus deck to speak of...maybe an outflow bndry or two...I think we're in business.

Gabe

 

[George Tincher]

Good to hear Gabe. I kinda had a feeling the ETA was being a bit on the stingy side as far as moisture was concerned since yesterday. It'll be nice to see just how far N the good moisture can make it. Also, wouldn't be at all surprised to see the day start off in ERN TX with partly sunny skies. Should allow things to really start cooking.

 

[Billy Griffin]

Actually Gabe, I've taken that route to Paris several times to go teach down there... if you'll take 35 south to Hwy 70, head east on 70 to the 271 junction north of Paris, then you've got some good options if that's where you decide to head out to. The roads are curvy down there, as you probably know, and the trees and hills will frustrate you from time to time, but that will save you more than an hour drive time, plus some $$ for tolls. Just thought I'd offer the help on " pre-navigation ". :wink:

Anyway, I'm still hoping the system will slow down and we'll have some action here closer to home. No need to say the roads are better, but if we can keep initiation around I-35, that sure leaves a lot of options on eastbound roads.

Things are really cranking here in Norman now, with DPs up to ~50 and rising fast. 55 degree dewpoint in Ardmore already !!! :lol:
If we can just get the dryline to slow down... maybe ??? I'm still going to stay here in Norman until around 3pm (really have to, gotta work!) Around 3, if things look like there are still options nearby, you can bet I'll be out (as long as it's within 150 mile radius). That's why I'm hoping for some tag-team stuff this year. Hey, if you know of any chasers in and around Norman who would like to ride along and share some gas money in exchange for the vehicle and a driver, I'd be glad to host !!
My vehicle is a Ford Explorer, plenty of room, with all the "gadgets" you can imagine to help out... satellite internet in motion, 5 laptops on network with internet, wxworx system, gps, in-motion satellite tv, mobile mesonet, etc. - also ham radios galore. All the stuff I need anyway, just need partners willing to foot some gas money.

Good luck in your chase tomorrow. Again, still think I'll stay here until the 11:30 day one. If the chase is close, I'll go. If it does play out in the ArkLaTex, count me out tomorrow and good luck to those who do go.

Remember everyone... just be safe. Roads and terrain is horrible in that part of the country in regards to chasing... not to mention, a lot of rural areas with sharp curves, bridges, etc. BE CAREFUL.

 

[Melissa Moon]

I am in agreement with those who like the NE TX area. I like the upper-level divergence combined with the CAPE and helicity values. Plus, some of the models are showing a tounge of higher dewpoints in this area, which always helps. If I were to be chasing tomorrow, I think my current tentative target would be Mount Pleasant, TX which is just south of Paris between Dallas and Texarkana. I really like the road options here because there is a road to drop South (to I-20 if needed), and it is right off of I-30. Of course, I'd decide for sure closer to the event.

Tonight when I go to bed, I'm going to pick a final target, and when I wake up in the morning I'll see how it verified...for those of you who are heading out tomorrow, best of luck with everything!!! Pray that nothing happens that puts any chasers or locals in any immediate danger.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Actually Gabe, I've taken that route to Paris several times to go teach down there... if you'll take 35 south to Hwy 70, head east on 70 to the 271 junction north of Paris, then you've got some good options if that's where you decide to head out to. The roads are curvy down there, as you probably know, and the trees and hills will frustrate you from time to time, but that will save you more than an hour drive time, plus some $$ for tolls. Just thought I'd offer the help on " pre-navigation ". Wink

Thanks a lot!!! I'm glad you said something...I need to save time with the expected early initiation of these storms.

SPC Day 1 out...nothing too surprising...though, I'm starting to wonder if I should stay closer to home (5% tornado probs). It looks good to me...and is very appealing considering its proximity. And you never know, a la November 10, 2004.

Gabe

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

I just have to wonder about the real tornado probabilities near the low... the upper level winds aren't quite as favorable and moisture will still be an issue. If the dps are near 60 in central OK, then I may have enough reason to stick around for the great low level shear... otherwise... I just don't know if there will be enough oomph to get some tubes in this neck of the woods.

That being said... and assuming the moisture is lacking near the low,

I like the area between Atoka, OK and Paris, TX or so. I'm still hoping for a slower dryline/later initation. Farther west we can get it, the better.

Aaron

 

[Reed Timmer]

cold core

I am definitely liking the central oklahoma region eastward early in the afternoon...even much better than ne texas. I love the 0 CIN and extreme 0-1 helicity values around and after 18z near the I-35 corridor...and mid 50 dewpoints should never be underestimated with the cold air aloft of early spring. The thermo profiles in north texas and central oklahoma are actually very similar early in the afternoon despite the lower dewpoints because of the colder air aloft.

It seems as though there have been several early season events that I have chased in the jungles of eastern Texas getting pounded by HP storms while photogenic tornadic supercells develop to the west underneath the upper system over perfect chasing country.

In addition, central Oklahoma eastward will be just on the north side of an intense dryline punch, and the trees are not too dense until you get really far east. Even if there aren't tornadoes there will be cold air funnels all over the place. I bet the southern show will hold off until around 00z when the storms are in dense forest and light will be limited.

Gotta love this pattern!

 

[Scott Currens]

N OK

Personally I think the setup in SE OK/NE TX is poor for chasing. Strong forcing along a rapidly advancing dryline should lead to an early squall line evolution. The best chance for tornadoes appears to be with any discrete supercells that form ahead of the line. Unfortunately these cells will be well into the jungle. On occasion I'll chase in the jungle if storm motion is reasonable, this will not be the case Monday.

The best opportunity for chaseable supercells and tornadoes appears to be in N OK. Strong vorticity advection and modest CAPE (forecast) along the warm front in N/NW OK will lead to potentially tornadic low-topped supercells. The big question for this area is how overnight and early mourning convection will affect the available instability. My early target is between Woodward and Enid.

Scott Currens

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

I just don't see tornadoes happening up there (given the models are factual ; ) ... 25kts at 500mb, and dewpoints *might* be up to 55. Even on 11/10/04 you had 50kts at 500, and dewpoints around 57-59. I checked a few other early season cases with tornadoes and all had dps near greater than 57 and stronger 500mb winds. We'll see. If the jet comes in a bit farther north and the moisture is underestimated, then you'll be in good shape.

We'll see if I'm wrong. I really, really, want to stay away from the jungle.

Aaron