03/12/2006 DISC: MO / AR / IA / IL / IN

[John MacKay]

Since it is the first high risk of the year, many chasers are going to go for a certain spot. I'm wondering about some of the areas you think you are going to target on 3/12. I'm probably going to Central MO, leaving between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM, after I look at the 1300 UTC SPC outlook. I'm doubting it will be safe for me to get any farther north than that.

I'm open to a chase partner for this event or following a group on this event. I don't have radar and that would be nice to have in case there are multiple lines of supercells. I'm searching for someone to have an eye on the radar to guide me just in case it gets hairy.

Anyway, good luck to everyone and be extremely careful. We already have some idea what we're in for tomorrow with some of the damage reports earlier tonight.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Phil O'Neal


Since apparently from my understanding of the forum rules that what I'm about to suggest is ok to post here, I'll say this; if you are planning on chasing in (what currently appears to be) the center of the High Convective Outlook area today (Sunday), and if I can be of help, let me know. I'm in Quincy, IL, which looks to have a great big bullseye on it for later today.

 

[John MacKay]

Thanks Jeff.

Sorry for the total flip-flop I'm about to do, but I realized I have too much to do the next two days if I do this.

I'm now on the fence on whether I want to go, after seeing my starting point is 300 miles away, I may have to go for a spot farther to the west, but that would probably leave me on the outside looking east. I have a long day Monday (since spring break doesn't start until the 18th for me). I am really wanting to get to this, but I'm afraid of the MO highway system, as it zags every which way and the terrain is shaky for those that have not been there much (outside of KC, I've only been in Missouri once). I think I might sit this out and wait for a better time.

I'm so conflicted right now that I will probably hope that everything goes well for everyone else.

Remembering the HWOs from Springfield and KC on Sat., the central and north central parts of MO looked to have the best dynamics for an outbreak.

 

[Chris Foltz]

John,

Having grown up in northern MO and lived in the state all but 3 years of my life, I can say there are areas where the road network is not the best. That being said however, US 36 is now a 4 lane limited access highway for about 90% of the way from St. Joe east to Macon. They are working on the rest of it. There are a few hills south of US 36 but going north, it's not really that bad in terms of terrain. Road networks aren't grided as they are in parts of KS, OK, and even IA but there are plenty of options if you have access to a good mapping program such as Streets & Trips or Delorme. If you do decide to go, feel free to PM me and I'll do what I can to help you avoid the less desirable areas if at all possible. Good luck and be safe if you decide to venture east.

 

[John MacKay]

I'm going to stay put in the Wichita area (currently 73/57 now with 68/61 last hour). I'm too scared of what this system could do, and I don't want to be there if I'm caught. It's too much effort and stress today, so I'll let the Missouri contingent go after this one. This is starting to remind me of May 4th, 2003 to some extent (storms going, with a very dynamic system that will change the atmosphere close to the low's path in a hurry, with earlier convection setting up the warm front).

And to think, the storms that woke me up at 5 AM (actually, the weather radio did) are the instigators of some of this activity.

EDIT: I am going now the 1630 UTC SPC outlook finally came out and went further west on the probabilities, as expected. Looking at going to Pittsburg first, and then doing whatever after that.

 

[J Holder]

I'm staying close to Osage City today and see what plays out. I made a 200 mile round trip ELT hunt for CAP late Saturday morning only to make a second 200 mile round trip 4 hours later to Salina. I was going to sleep in today at that didn't happen.

My gut says that starting in the Chanute/Iola/Yates Center prepared to move toward Nevada, Mo wouldn't be bad strategy, but I personally don't like to get the storms between me and home.


JH

 

[John MacKay]

KWCH TV in Wichita showed footage of Michael Gribble shooting the tornadoes around Sedalia. Nice footage of the tornado they showed.

I'm wondering what is in store for the overnight hours, since the system is finally moving east after shooting off four rounds of storms. I can't think of a time where storms fired four rounds on the dry line that were so potent in the same day.

Anyway, I hope some of these supercells get overtaken by the dryline, because I think Missouri has had enough tornadoes in the past two days/nights.

 

[Bob Hartig]

March 12, 2006

I took my first images at exactly 5:10PM. I observed a large wedge tornado that appeared to be weak. The only reason it was visible was due to the rain forming the wedge shape. This persisted for about 30 seconds before dissipating or being occluded from precipitation. I watched several updrafts turn slightly, but no organized rotation that I would call a “well-definedâ€￾ wall cloud. [/b]

Wayne, how far were you from the I 70 overpass on 63? We pulled aside by the overpass and I caught that same feature on film. It appeared out of nowhere; I wondered whether it was a large tornado but dismissed it as a rain shaft since it appeared to be well behind the updraft area. Didn't want to give in to an overactive imagination! B) But I guess I was right the first time. Those images of yours look pretty convincing.

MOD: Moved from 3/12 REPORTS thread

 

[Daniel Christianson]

Wayne, how far were you from the I 70 overpass on 63? We pulled aside by the overpass and I caught that same feature on film. It appeared out of nowhere; I wondered whether it was a large tornado but dismissed it as a rain shaft since it appeared to be well behind the updraft area. Didn't want to give in to an overactive imagination! B) But I guess I was right the first time. Those images of yours look pretty convincing.
[/b]

Thats a pretty well defined wedge there, i have heard of storms producing tornadoes away from the updraft, if this was the chase case this night, those are HQ images i think , where about on I-70 were you? from 63?


good job congrats

MOD: Moved from 3/12 REPORTS thread.

 

[Wayne Sclesky]

Wayne, how far were you from the I 70 overpass on 63? We pulled aside by the overpass and I caught that same feature on film. It appeared out of nowhere; I wondered whether it was a large tornado but dismissed it as a rain shaft since it appeared to be well behind the updraft area. Didn't want to give in to an overactive imagination! B) But I guess I was right the first time. Those images of yours look pretty convincing.

MOD: Moved from 3/12 REPORTS thread
[/b]

The star represents where KOMU-TV is at. However I was about 1/4 mile north of that spot. The yellow area is approximately the angle of view where the tornado would have been. (shift the star and yellow cone a bit north, when I made the image this morning I had my head in my butt ) I have no distance data. If anyone is familiar with the area here is a closeup showing some water towers for location identification.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I know a lot of folks chased central Missouri, so I'm wondering what you guys thought of the roads and chase terrain (trees, hills, etc). I'm interested to see how Missouri was in reality (vs. perception). I've only chased in the area in extreme southwestern MO (Joplin or just east), and it was just fine. However, when I looked at a topo map, it looked like the area farther northeast was considerably worse. Thanks!

 

[Chris Foltz]

I know a lot of folks chased central Missouri, so I'm wondering what you guys thought of the roads and chase terrain (trees, hills, etc). I'm interested to see how Missouri was in reality (vs. perception). I've only chased in the area in extreme southwestern MO (Joplin or just east), and it was just fine. However, when I looked at a topo map, it looked like the area farther northeast was considerably worse. Thanks! [/b]

Jeff, there are a few complicating factors for chasing in much of MO. The Lake of the Ozarks region down through the Ozark Plateau is certainly a rough area to attempt a chase due to the terrain. As Dick and Darin can attest, further east toward Rolla is not much fun either as there are just a ton of trees around. Across the middle part of the state, you also have the Missouri River which impeeds the opportunity for chasing. Combine these factors with storm motions in excess of 50mph and you've got a tough day on your hands. Further north, say from US 36 to the IA border, it's much better in my opinion. No where in MO is there a road network that one could classify as "chaser-friendly". I'd certainly prefer a chase in KS or OK but will always go out if something is in my back yard.

 

[Dan Cook]

I know a lot of folks chased central Missouri, so I'm wondering what you guys thought of the roads and chase terrain (trees, hills, etc). I'm interested to see how Missouri was in reality (vs. perception). I've only chased in the area in extreme southwestern MO (Joplin or just east), and it was just fine. However, when I looked at a topo map, it looked like the area farther northeast was considerably worse. Thanks!
[/b]

Where Skip, Fabian and I were at in audrain county, the roads were somewhat decent, though the terrain was terrible for the most part.

 

[Dick McGowan]

I know a lot of folks chased central Missouri, so I'm wondering what you guys thought of the roads and chase terrain (trees, hills, etc). I'm interested to see how Missouri was in reality (vs. perception). I've only chased in the area in extreme southwestern MO (Joplin or just east), and it was just fine. However, when I looked at a topo map, it looked like the area farther northeast was considerably worse. Thanks!
[/b]

I no longer hold a grudge on MO.

I agree with what Chris said. Anywhere from Jefferson City southward is a mess. By the time you hit Rolla, you have 45 mph zones in tall timber, 0 visibility. Nothing but "gray shaded" highways south and east of there, windy roads, farmer joe pulling his trailer, semis . NW MO is decent, highway 71 north of kc to south to Joplin is fine. I will chase anywhere really in western MO, if the probabilities are high.


Personally, I am spoiled to the flat, tree-free area of Western KS, where the road network is great, and visibility is high. Even NE KS and parts of central ks, have a crappy road network and terrain is difficult. Avoid the flint hills!

This is a view from a mountain (lol) we were on February 16th (Near Vienna MO south of Jefferson City looking west) with storms trucking at 55-60 mph. As you can see our only chance to see storms was to find a clearing where powerlines ran through.

The terrain reminded me a lot like SE OK. Good roads IMO are highway 50 straight east of KC, any interstate, and Highway 71.


One of these days I will have GPS and mobile radar of some sort.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

I know a lot of folks chased central Missouri, so I'm wondering what you guys thought of the roads and chase terrain (trees, hills, etc). I'm interested to see how Missouri was in reality (vs. perception). I've only chased in the area in extreme southwestern MO (Joplin or just east), and it was just fine. However, when I looked at a topo map, it looked like the area farther northeast was considerably worse. Thanks!
[/b]

I hate, hate, hate crossing into Missouri with a passion. Driving in rural Northwest Missouri is like being in a one-car roller coaster. The hills out there are good enough to literally catch air on if you speed. On top of that, the road network is spare -- very few gridded country roads. What country roads are there are, in my experience, fairly narrow in comparison to what I'm used to in NE/KS, without much in the way of shoulders. They also have a severe aversion to signage -- they don't warn you that there is going to be a sharp turn just over the next hill, so speeding is out of the question, unless you want to endup offroading.

My experience is only with northwest Missouri, so the rest of the state may not be this bad.