rdale
EF5
Should we post the "regular" meteorological NOW content for Rita in the Map Room? Seems like this one has strayed so far off the NOW rules to be useless...
NOW: Hurricane Rita
- Thread starter HAltschule
- Start date
B Ozanne
EF5
Near the time of full and new moons the tides are higher than normal. Also, during certain times of the year the sun and moon gang up and make the tides even higher.
In case you are wondering the moon is responsible for our tides. The sun also exerts a force on the earth that effects the tides. So anytime you hear a reference to astronomical tides it means the sun or moon or both are aligned in such a way to exert a greater than normal tidal force.
In case you are wondering the moon is responsible for our tides. The sun also exerts a force on the earth that effects the tides. So anytime you hear a reference to astronomical tides it means the sun or moon or both are aligned in such a way to exert a greater than normal tidal force.
Looking at the latest water vapor images, the ridge of high pressure not begun to shift east or breakdown at all. I will agree with the computer model that keeps Rita on a due west track and not more of a northwest track.
Justin Walker
EF3
The ridge really won't start breaking down until that next trough in the NW moves in to weaken the ridge. How much the ridge weakens will determine how far north Rita will make landfall. So time will tell.
HAltschule
EF5
Wow. Have you seen the eye on the EYW radar? It has developed rapidly and looks extremely well organized. Likely starting the process to become a "Major" Hurricane.
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?BYX
Edit: I agree. The models forecast the western movement quite well. They also don't forecast the NW track until later on. So, it seems that the models are doing an excellent job on the track of the storm. I don't see any reason to deviate from the model consensus.
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?BYX
Edit: I agree. The models forecast the western movement quite well. They also don't forecast the NW track until later on. So, it seems that the models are doing an excellent job on the track of the storm. I don't see any reason to deviate from the model consensus.
Latest GFS (18Z) would suggest that the strength of the hurricane collides through a weakening section of the upper level high pressure that is to build over the southern Gulf states over the next few days. WV imagery surely shows one high pressure center over TX and another behind the exiting front along the east coast.
The latest GFS suggests the TX/LA border, but again I would side with Mr. Walker. Also there is a deepening trough behind the hurricane over the intermountain west as the hurricane makes landfall. Will that play a role? Surely ... but newer model runs, less error ... etc.
Sam Sagnella
EF5
As of the latest vortex data message from the NHC (0205z), the minimum central pressure has continued to fall and is now down to 965, and the max FL winds have risen to 103kts; standard surface conversion puts the top surface winds at around 105mph.
Justin Walker
EF3
I'm still waiting on the rest of the NAM to come in on RAP, but it is not weakening the ridge much at all. It looks like it could keep Rita right near the TX/Mexico border. I know it's just one model run...but man, interesting!! :?
EDIT: I checked at ncep and the nam does carry Rita on into Mexico!! :shock:
EDIT: I checked at ncep and the nam does carry Rita on into Mexico!! :shock:
HAltschule
EF5
11pm: Sustained winds of 110mph. Forecast by NHC to reach 145mph sustained.
EDIT: New tropical model consensus track has a path a little further north than earlier this afternoon. The models look like their fluctuating a little to the right once again. The earlier GFDL and 18z AVN really slam Houston with a fierce direct hit. Will be interesting to see what happens with the next runs. All the models I have seen now bring Rita to 100-120kt sutained winds over the next 72 hours or so. (Interestingly...the way out there CLIPER model has landfall about 30 miles west of New Orleans).
EDIT: New tropical model consensus track has a path a little further north than earlier this afternoon. The models look like their fluctuating a little to the right once again. The earlier GFDL and 18z AVN really slam Houston with a fierce direct hit. Will be interesting to see what happens with the next runs. All the models I have seen now bring Rita to 100-120kt sutained winds over the next 72 hours or so. (Interestingly...the way out there CLIPER model has landfall about 30 miles west of New Orleans).
Sam Sagnella
EF5
Having the NHC to put that out there in a discussion, which means that the national media will be all over it in a second, should make the red flags fly for people not planning or preparing for possible evacuations.
EDIT: At the rate it has been deepening/strengthening, Rita will likely attain category four status by 21/1500 or 21/2100 at the latest.
Jeff Snyder
EF5
Just a reminder that this is a NOW thread. We encourage folks to post in FCST type posts if you are addressing the future of this storm.
MClarkson
EF5
cliper is a climatology 'model' that should never be trusted.
the NHC has used some wording in their last discussion I dont remember seeing before.
"STRENGTHENING INTO A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY."
When was the last time you saw that for a storm that at the time was a cat 2?
EDIT: the latest satellite imagery show a fairly solid CDO with good symmetry and a clear although non-symetrical eye.
Looks a 3 to me.
the NHC has used some wording in their last discussion I dont remember seeing before.
"STRENGTHENING INTO A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY."
When was the last time you saw that for a storm that at the time was a cat 2?
EDIT: the latest satellite imagery show a fairly solid CDO with good symmetry and a clear although non-symetrical eye.
Looks a 3 to me.
Andrew Khan
EF5
Looks like Rita is giving off lots of lightning to...
Chris Sokol
EF5
Rita has now been upgraded to a catagory 3 storm, with sustained winds of 115 MPH. It's amazing how rapidly storms have intensified upon reaching the gulf this season.
Chris Hayes
EF5
As of 5am, winds are up to 120mph
