NOW: Hurricane Rita

Just a reminder that this is a NOW thread. We encourage folks to post in FCST type posts if you are addressing the future of this storm.
 
cliper is a climatology 'model' that should never be trusted.

the NHC has used some wording in their last discussion I dont remember seeing before.

"STRENGTHENING INTO A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY."

When was the last time you saw that for a storm that at the time was a cat 2?

EDIT: the latest satellite imagery show a fairly solid CDO with good symmetry and a clear although non-symetrical eye.

Looks a 3 to me.
 
Rita has now been upgraded to a catagory 3 storm, with sustained winds of 115 MPH. It's amazing how rapidly storms have intensified upon reaching the gulf this season.
 
"As of 5am, winds are up to 120mph"

Where'd that report come from? I thought the 5AM NHC discussion said that flight troubles prevented any recon...

- Rob
 
Where'd that report come from?
Click to expand...

According to the 5am Discussion....88D data from Key West showed 100-115kt winds at 5000 feet just before the eye moved out of range. In addition, NHC is basing these estimates on satellite observations. Interestingly, they say that these may very well be conservative estimates.

Question: What kind of electronics problems would plague ALL of the hurricane hunter aircraft at the same time? Talk about bad luck.
 
I have no doubt everyone on this forum reads the NHC bulletins - I assumed there was actually some info of additional value in that post.
 
There's no problem pointing out breaking news about the hurricane. Anything goes in this forum. The only thing we frown on are bulletins posted in their entirety without supporting comments, and copyright violations (e.g. full news stories; quotes with a comment are considered fair use).

Tim
 
The 11am NHC discussions seems to hint they are thinking Rita will weaken to a Cat-3 or lower before landfall. Although they did not go into
great detail, other than water temps., I am wondering if they are begining to think unfavorable shear after the 48 hour period? This could really kill this storm.

(See NHC wind estimate graph):
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...646.shtml?chart

Mike
 
Originally posted by Mike Johnson
The 11am NHC discussions seems to hint they are thinking Rita will weaken to a Cat-3 or lower before landfall. Although they did not go into
great detail, other than water temps., I am wondering if they are begining to think unfavorable shear after the 48 hour period? This could really kill this storm.

(See NHC wind estimate graph):
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...646.shtml?chart

Mike
Click to expand...

The 72 hour point is on land! If they put in a 60 hour point (thus between the 48hr and 72hr points), you'd probably see it near the same intensity as the 48hr point. I do thin kthere could be slow, gradual weakening tomorrow and until landfall owing to lower total heat content (warm water isn't as deep).
 
The latest NHC Discussion suggests that the winds are up to 140kt, but they are waiting for confirmation from an aircraft. 140kts is a CAT 5.

It might be a broad reach since that number is just based on satellite techniques. Either way we will know shortly.
 
The NHC's 11am discussion does not hint at weakening to below major hurricane status, in fact it explicitly mentions otherwise.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.
Click to expand...

While Rita almost certainly will not be a category five at landfall, a category three or four is what should be expected in the landfall/evacuation areas.
 
I have been reading in other forums that rita might turn out to be a mexican storm... Something about a strong high over texas. Any opinions?
 
If Rita is going to reach cat.5 status anytime before landfall it'll be here within the next 12 hrs or so. im still thinking cat.3 at landfall. gah. how strange is it that all the planes experience electronic difficulties at the same time. rita looks like she's strengthened in the last couple of hrs. on satelite. the eye has cleared and the storm is expanding. she may be cat.5 already. we just dont have any way of knowing for sure until the planes reach her. i feel like im trapped in the dark age by not knowing whats going on with her.
 
Given current satellite presentation (Annular status/stadium effect per visible) with the vorticies developing in the inner eye, I would say that SFC pressures are going to really BOMB on the next advisory if RECON ever gets in there. Looks to me as if the DVORAK may have been right. RECON should find 140-145 kt winds given the explosion of -95 to -100C tops around the center. Very intense hurricane....
 
From NHC:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

EDIT: MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB

EDIT2: Sorry, just got this email...didn't realize had already been discussed
 
Latest GT Imagery...

RITALATEST.png


RITAFORECAST.png
 
I usually don't participate in the play-by-play thing, but this is pretty significant... Latest VORTEX message from recon indicates the central pressure is 934mb -- that's a drop of 54mb in 30 hours and 10mb lower than the 11am estimate central pressure! Max FL winds 137kt, though I don't know if it has sampled the entire storm yet, nor do we know what the SFMR (if equipped) is measuring. The 934mb typically supports Cat 4 intensity, and the standard reduction on the 137kt flight-level winds also support Cat 4.
 
This thing is a monster!! Satellite image loops of Rita show that she has explosive convection around the center. I expect the 5pm advisory to have Rita at upper Cat 4 or lower Cat 5 intensity. A due west motion continues, in agreement with the models which have been doing a good job.
 
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