NOW: Hurricane Rita

[rdale]

"As of 5am, winds are up to 120mph"

Where'd that report come from? I thought the 5AM NHC discussion said that flight troubles prevented any recon...

- Rob

 

[HAltschule]

Where'd that report come from?

According to the 5am Discussion....88D data from Key West showed 100-115kt winds at 5000 feet just before the eye moved out of range. In addition, NHC is basing these estimates on satellite observations. Interestingly, they say that these may very well be conservative estimates.

Question: What kind of electronics problems would plague ALL of the hurricane hunter aircraft at the same time? Talk about bad luck.

 

[rdale]

I have no doubt everyone on this forum reads the NHC bulletins - I assumed there was actually some info of additional value in that post.

 

[Chris Sokol]

And she just keeps going up...Cat 4 with max sustained winds of 135.

 

[rdale]

That was already published in the NHC bulletin...

 

[Tim Vasquez]

There's no problem pointing out breaking news about the hurricane. Anything goes in this forum. The only thing we frown on are bulletins posted in their entirety without supporting comments, and copyright violations (e.g. full news stories; quotes with a comment are considered fair use).

Tim

 

[Mike Johnson]

The 11am NHC discussions seems to hint they are thinking Rita will weaken to a Cat-3 or lower before landfall. Although they did not go into
great detail, other than water temps., I am wondering if they are begining to think unfavorable shear after the 48 hour period? This could really kill this storm.

(See NHC wind estimate graph):
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...646.shtml?chart

Mike

 

[Carrie Halliday]

Just said on local KPRC TV, up to 140mph winds.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Mike Johnson
The 11am NHC discussions seems to hint they are thinking Rita will weaken to a Cat-3 or lower before landfall. Although they did not go into
great detail, other than water temps., I am wondering if they are begining to think unfavorable shear after the 48 hour period? This could really kill this storm.

(See NHC wind estimate graph):
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...646.shtml?chart

Mike

The 72 hour point is on land! If they put in a 60 hour point (thus between the 48hr and 72hr points), you'd probably see it near the same intensity as the 48hr point. I do thin kthere could be slow, gradual weakening tomorrow and until landfall owing to lower total heat content (warm water isn't as deep).

 

[B Ozanne]

The latest NHC Discussion suggests that the winds are up to 140kt, but they are waiting for confirmation from an aircraft. 140kts is a CAT 5.

It might be a broad reach since that number is just based on satellite techniques. Either way we will know shortly.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

The NHC's 11am discussion does not hint at weakening to below major hurricane status, in fact it explicitly mentions otherwise.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.

While Rita almost certainly will not be a category five at landfall, a category three or four is what should be expected in the landfall/evacuation areas.

 

[missouri stormspotter]

I have been reading in other forums that rita might turn out to be a mexican storm... Something about a strong high over texas. Any opinions?

 

[David Wolfson]

Unfortunately, all the computer models say that it's a question of when, not if, the high pressure breaks down and allows a more northward track.

 

[Justin Bailey]

If Rita is going to reach cat.5 status anytime before landfall it'll be here within the next 12 hrs or so. im still thinking cat.3 at landfall. gah. how strange is it that all the planes experience electronic difficulties at the same time. rita looks like she's strengthened in the last couple of hrs. on satelite. the eye has cleared and the storm is expanding. she may be cat.5 already. we just dont have any way of knowing for sure until the planes reach her. i feel like im trapped in the dark age by not knowing whats going on with her.

 

[Brett Adair]

Given current satellite presentation (Annular status/stadium effect per visible) with the vorticies developing in the inner eye, I would say that SFC pressures are going to really BOMB on the next advisory if RECON ever gets in there. Looks to me as if the DVORAK may have been right. RECON should find 140-145 kt winds given the explosion of -95 to -100C tops around the center. Very intense hurricane....