NOW: Hurricane Rita

[MClarkson]

latest dropsonde in at 928.

152 knots peak fl winds(~135 surface)

dvorak estimates of T7.0 140knots

borderline 4/5 at the moment.

 

[HAltschule]

LOL. There's no more accurate way to forecast than to nowcast!! :lol:

 

[Anonymous]

Originally posted by MClarkson
latest dropsonde in at 928.

152 knots peak fl winds(~135 surface)

dvorak estimates of T7.0 140knots

borderline 4/5 at the moment.

Where do you see this? Here is the latest vortex message on the NHC site, which doesn't agree with your numbers:

000
URNT12 KNHC 211600Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/1517Z
B. 24 DEG 11 MIN N
85 DEG 42 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2522 M
D. 65 KT
E. 070 DEG 27 NM
F. 180 DEG 137 KT
G. 075 DEG 09 NM
H. 934 MB
I. 12 C/ 3056 M
J. 22 C/ 3062 M
K. 07 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 WX18A RITA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 137 KT E QUAD 1516Z

Glen

 

[Justin Walker]

Its the dropsonde report here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT3.shtml?text

 

[Anonymous]

This might be dumb but, can a hurricane go pass the Category 5 threshold? It would seem possible.

 

[MClarkson]

btw the last drop is now 922 mb... 6mb in 1 hour.

also a 14 degree difference between eye and surroundings, plus eyewall lightning indicates continued rapid deepening.

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

RECON ...

142 Knots! or 163 MPH

Cat 5 has been reached!

Central pressure of 923 mb

This at 17:02:40 or 1:02 ET

Stadium type eyewall ... interesting. Thoughts anyone?

 

[William Combes]

check the last 5 hours of water vapor on RAP.UCAR It appears as if there is some dry air beginning to dive southward on the western side of Rita's current track. It will be interesting if the ridge over TX holds its ground. If so, Rita may track a little further southward.

 

[Brett Adair]

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Benjamin Sipprell
RECON ...

142 Knots! or 163 MPH

Cat 5 has been reached!

Central pressure of 923 mb

This at 17:02:40 or 1:02 ET

Stadium type eyewall ... interesting. Thoughts anyone?

Ben,

That's max FLIGHT-LEVEL winds, not surface winds. There's a rule-of-thumb 10% reduction to get to surface winds... So, 143kt max flight-level is about 130kt surface winds, which is still cat 4. The 923mb is also a little high for Cat 5.

That said, I can't see why we wouldn't have a cat 5 by later afternoon. Changes in wind speeds usually lag changes in central pressure, was has dropped 11mb in 90 minutes! The 11am central time recon had 134mb, while the 12:30pm central time recon has 123mb... That's insane! I'd find it statistically odd if the recon report just happens to occur at the minimum of central pressure during a rapid strengthening period, so I wouldn't be surprised to see <915mb by evening (or earlier). Rita is a relatively compact storm, so that pressure perturbation isn't spread over a very large area like it was with Katrina (which was Cat 5 with <905mb cp).

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Pressure is down to 920mb and winds are up to 150mph...insane strengthening is occurring, absolutely insane. Katrina's 902mb record of the season in jeopardy?

 

[Anonymous]

ZCZC MIATCUAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS INTENSIFIED
A LITTLE MORE AND WINDS HAVE REACHED 150 MPH WINDS WITH A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 920 MB. THIS MAKES RITA A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$
NNNN

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Snyder)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Benjamin Sipprell

RECON ...

142 Knots! or 163 MPH

Cat 5 has been reached!

Central pressure of 923 mb

This at 17:02:40 or 1:02 ET

Stadium type eyewall ... interesting. Thoughts anyone?

Ben,

That's max FLIGHT-LEVEL winds, not surface winds. There's a rule-of-thumb 10% reduction to get to surface winds... So, 143kt max flight-level is about 130kt surface winds, which is still cat 4. The 923mb is also a little high for Cat 5.

That said, I can't see why we wouldn't have a cat 5 by later afternoon. Changes in wind speeds usually lag changes in central pressure, was has dropped 11mb in 90 minutes! The 11am central time recon had 134mb, while the 12:30pm central time recon has 123mb... That's insane! I'd find it statistically odd if the recon report just happens to occur at the minimum of central pressure during a rapid strengthening period, so I wouldn't be surprised to see <915mb by evening (or earlier). Rita is a relatively compact storm, so that pressure perturbation isn't spread over a very large area like it was with Katrina (which was Cat 5 with <905mb cp).[/b]

Damn you Jeff, you are so totally right. Sorry about that everyone ... ack, so exciting!

 

[HAltschule]

2:30pm Water Vapor loop shows that Rita is taking a jog to the NW (around 310) at this time. If this continues, which is a little earlier than NHC Progs., it may move further north than forecast. For some reason, (and unsupported by the model consensus I might add), I think we have to watch out for Houston still. There is a good chance that this thing may recurve further north than most are thinking right now. And that puts Houston in ringer. Just my $0.02 from this seasoned speculative Met.

 

[B Ozanne]

Originally posted by HAltschule
2:30pm Water Vapor loop shows that Rita is taking a jog to the NW (around 310) at this time. If this continues, which is a little earlier than NHC Progs., it may move further north than forecast. For some reason, (and unsupported by the model consensus I might add), I think we have to watch out for Houston still. There is a good chance that this thing may recurve further north than most are thinking right now. And that puts Houston in ringer. Just my $0.02 from this seasoned speculative Met.

Glad you said it, not me. Everytime I mention something it turns out to be a wobble. Give it a couple more hours and we can rule out a wobble.

 

[Brett Adair]

Heh...and she keeps a comin' We should see a category 5 storm at 5 if this trend holds.

000
URNT12 KNHC 211808
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/17:53:20Z
B. 24 deg 17 min N
086 deg 10 min W
C. 700 mb 2400 m
D. 110 kt
E. 277 deg 005 nm
F. 016 deg 153 kt
G. 287 deg 007 nm
H. 920 mb
I. 9 C/ 3040 m
J. 26 C/ 3050 m
K. 3 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1418A RITA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 153 KT W QUAD 17:51:30 Z

 

[Justin Turcotte]

Originally posted by HAltschule
2:30pm Water Vapor loop shows that Rita is taking a jog to the NW (around 310) at this time. If this continues, which is a little earlier than NHC Progs., it may move further north than forecast. For some reason, (and unsupported by the model consensus I might add), I think we have to watch out for Houston still. There is a good chance that this thing may recurve further north than most are thinking right now. And that puts Houston in ringer. Just my $0.02 from this seasoned speculative Met.

I noticed this as well. I saw the northwest jog on the MSNBC blurb and checked out some more high-res stuff to confirm. Hurricanes often wobble a little bit. A little wobble now could mean a big difference on impact loaction later. A lot of storms seem to move slightly right of the 24-72 hr forecast... Ivan, Dennis, Katrina, Ophelia, to name a few. Houston: We have a problem.

 

[B Ozanne]

That jog to the NW looks like more than just a wobble, the track has clearly shifted.

 

[Missouri Stormspotter]

that seems to be the concensus on the the various weather forums... I wonder what NHC is thinking...

 

[Andrew Khan]

I'd say we will very likely see it become a Category 5. And at this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if it went passed the threshold for Cat 5. This I assume is possible?

 

[David Wolfson]

I'll hazard a guess on what the NHC is thinking right now.... Oy, veh!

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Andrew Khan
I wouldn't be surprised if it went passed the threshold for Cat 5. This I assume is possible?

No, this isn't possible. Cat 5 has winds >155mph. There is no upper bound for Cat 5.

 

[Andrew Khan]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Snyder)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Andrew Khan

I wouldn't be surprised if it went passed the threshold for Cat 5. This I assume is possible?

No, this isn't possible. Cat 5 has winds >155mph. There is no upper bound for Cat 5.[/b]

Jeff, why is this so? What can keep it from reaching greater capacity? Why does it just STOP there?

 

[IvanStorm]

Originally posted by Missouri Stormspotter
that seems to be the concensus on the the various weather forums... I wonder what NHC is thinking...

With the high pressure in place to the north, hopefully it was a slight wobble and it will continue moving west. A direct hit on Houston/Galveston is the last thing needed.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Andrew Khan+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Andrew Khan)</div>

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder@
<!--QuoteBegin-Andrew Khan

I wouldn't be surprised if it went passed the threshold for Cat 5. This I assume is possible?

No, this isn't possible. Cat 5 has winds >155mph. There is no upper bound for Cat 5.

Jeff, why is this so? What can keep it from reaching greater capacity? Why does it just STOP there?[/b]

Andrew, it can get stronger than 155mph obviously, but anything stronger than 155mph will be classified as Cat 5. If Rita gets to 180mph, it'll still be Cat 5. That's just how the scale is.