winter weather fatalities vs severe storms

[greg windsor]

Hi ,

Does anyone out there know the average winter weather fatalities are in a year vs severe storms fatalies in an average year ?

Thanks ,

Greg

 

[Chad Cowan]

Dan Robinson would be the guy to ask about this. If he doesn't see this thread, PM him.

You'll need to clarify if "severe storms" includes flooding.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Ten-Year Averages 1999-2008

Based on:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats/images/69-years.pdf

Lightning 42
Tornadoes 63
Hurricanes 117 (Katrina in 2005 greatly inflates this figure compared to normal values)

Floods 65
Wind 43

Cold 21
Winter 33

Heat 162

If you count 'severe weather' deaths as all directly caused by convective and tropical phenomena, the number would be:

Convective + Tropical = 222

Floods and wind may or may not be convective in origin and therefore not considered severe weather (I believe they should be however), here is the count with wind+floods added:

Convective + Tropical + Wind + Floods = 330

Heat has the highest death rate- but unlike the other hazards, it tends to threaten a very narrow demographic of the population - the elderly or in poor health who do not have access to air-conditioned shelter.

Winter total:

Winter + cold = 54

Fatalities due to road icing have traditionally not been counted as winter weather deaths. I believe they should, as the icing - a direct weather phenomenon - is the primary factor in many of the crashes. The ice gets under vehicle tires, separating the car from the roadway and causing it to leave the road without abnormal driver behavior - just as if a tornado had blown it off the road.

Last winter, there were at least 477 road ice fatalities. This figure is independent of the other winter death categories. Combined with the 10-year winter death average, that would give a figure of 531 for all winter phenomena, compared to 330 severe weather deaths. Excluding heat deaths, road icing alone beats out all other weather phenomena combined - 477 versus 384 (winter + severe weather). This season's road ice death toll is already outpacing last year.

There is debate on what to count and what not to count as weather-related. I believe if a death is a direct result of a weather phenomena, it should be counted. Many of the arguments against counting road deaths, if applied to other severe weather hazards, would mean we would not count most flood, severe storm and hurricane deaths. I can go deeper into that if the discussion warrants.

 

[greg windsor]

Dan ,

Thank you for a very informative response . It also I think shows some flaws in the way statistics are counted . A lot more die from ice/snow on the road , not attributed to some large scale "storm" system .

Here is a side tangent thought . ( I'm working on a writing )

Some protests to storm chasing are: "What ! you actually want and wish for severe storms? What about the injuries , etc ? The loss of life and home.

My response is to consider this. The connection isn't a valid argument, heres why:

" Each year millions wish for or sing out "Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow" and enjoy the countryside draped in white after the winter storm . Many love the crystalline ice scape of those winter wonderlands. We usually don't consider something else as we sit by the fire watching puffs of white melt on the window. That's not the end of the story !
In the night some driver slid off the road and a family is forever altered. That morning , slipping on ice broke some poor granddads arm as he went to fetch the daily news.
In any year thousands will be injured or die from snowstorms/ice related accidents as might be effected by severe storms. "



Thanks ,
Greg

 

[rdale]

A lot more die from ice/snow on the road , not attributed to some large scale "storm" system .

Most of those deaths however are from people who choose to go out into an icy road situation, and drive too fast for conditions. That's not the same as a tornado hitting my house and killing me in the basement.

 

[greg windsor]

Most of those deaths however are from people who choose to go out into an icy road situation, and drive too fast for conditions. That's not the same as a tornado hitting my house and killing me in the basement.

Hi ,

Thats a good point .
But, I had a roommate almost die hitting ice , just going to work on the last road freeze day of the winter season . Most of the road was clear and he was driving slower . Though , I DID give him a lecture " If you just would have waited a few hours..."

Thanks ,
Greg

 

[Dan Robinson]

Most of those deaths however are from people who choose to go out into an icy road situation, and drive too fast for conditions. That's not the same as a tornado hitting my house and killing me in the basement.

It is though. Many tornado deaths are due to people not heeding warnings or having a plan of action in place, but some are not. Many hurricane deaths are due to people choosing not to evacuate, some are not. Many flood deaths are caused by people choosing to drive into flooded roadways, some are not. Some road ice deaths are due to people driving too fast - but many are not.

When you apply the criteria across different weather hazards, there is a huge dichotomy between perceived and real threats; between those that get attention and those that don't.

 

[rdale]

Some road ice deaths are due to people driving too fast - but many are not.

I see what you are getting at, and might agree up to a point, but I don't see how you can say that speed is not an issue for most ice accidents. I'm not saying it's the drivers fault if they hit black ice, but the point is that if they were driving slower when they were on the ice then death is pretty unlikely.

 

[Phillip Aubin]

Another factor in winter driving also stems from OTHER drivers driving like idiots.

 

[Bob Hall]

To further gray the discussion, consider General Aviation accidents involving weather and fatalities. I assume these are not counted towards weather fatalities, but rather pilot error. It is standard practice to get a weather briefing so maybe there is more of expectation of a pilot rather than a driver of an automobile, but both are operating a vehicle by choice.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I think a case could be made for including some aviation accidents in weather related tolls.

Driving a car isn't as much of a voluntary act for most as one would first assume. It's part of a necessary daily routine for the vast majority of drivers on the road. Going to work, going to the grocery store, to the doctor, to pick up kids from school, etc. Transportation is a necessity in modern times, and most people have no choice when it comes to exposure to weather hazards while driving.

Regarding driving too fast, the term gets fuzzy because at least with black ice, usually no speed is safe. Someone going 40 in a 70 would still be going too fast. The question becomes one of the driver being aware that the hazard exists so that they have a chance to adjust their speed in advance. With freezing precipitation, the visual clues are either virtually undetectable at worst, and at best much more subtle and easier to miss for the non-weather savvy.