• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

WINTER STORM FCST 12/14/07 - 12/17/07: SOUTHERN US - NORTHEAST US

  • Thread starter Thread starter Brandon Smith
  • Start date Start date
It's going to be interesting further east, particularly in my area east of the Blue Ridge Mountains and south of Harrisburg. From looking at several different model runs, it appears the bulk of precip we will receive will occur during the overnight hours on Saturday, through early morning on Sunday. The only downside to this is that there is a period of time during the precip when the temperatures on the ground and aloft will be warmed than 0 C, meaning rain. However, at least until 6Z, the temperatures will be below freezing on the ground, meaning we will have several hours of accumulating frozen precipitation before the slight change over to rain between 6Z and 12Z. The warm air appears that it won't stay around for long as the low deepens over Indiana and quickly kicks in the cold air on the backside of the front. Anything that falls on the backside of this system wrapping around from the low should fall as snow for us after the front passes through.

The DC, Baltimore and Philly areas will definitely have a change over to rain for an extended period of time. It appears the cold air will get quickly over-ridden at all heights.

One thing interesting is just the slightest track to the south would guarantee my area all ice, with no rain. I'll be keeping a close eye to see how far the warm air advances in front of the low and how far north the low tracks.
 
From GRI:

THE NEWEST TRACK OF THE STORM TAKES IT TO NEAR TOLEDO. THIS TRACK
SUPPORTS HEAVIER SNOW FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. THEREFORE HAVE
UPGRADED THE WATCH AREA TO WARNINGS. ADDED A NEW WATCH FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST TOWARD LDM. WILL HAVE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW COULD
FALL IN A BAND SOMEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA.

that could make quite the difference in NW Ohio.
 
I was just checking out the wind potential in BUFKIT. The NAM is usually over-board, so that must be taken into account here.

Here's what is shown for PTK (north of DTW):

7AM SUN: 30-40knts
2PM SUN: 40-50knts
4PM SUN: 45-55knts

BUFKIT outputs around 19-22 inches of snow, depending on the ratio algorithm used.
 
From my blog this morning:

http://weatherexpert.blogspot.com/

WINTER STORM UPDATE: 12/16-12/17


The latest computer models continue to delay the secondary low pressure development along the Mid-Atlantic coast. This means that as the main low continues further inland over the Ohio Valley, a southerly wind will pump up warmer air in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere. While snow will fall heavily and accumulate significantly during the first part of the storm, I now believe that a changeover to sleet and even rain will occur into the Albany area. This will cut down on snow accumulation quite a bit. Nevertheless, snowfall will be heavy begining around 11pm-1am Sunday morning before the changeover during the day Sunday. Total snow accumulation will be 5-9" followed by sleet and rain. The storm should gradually wind down as some additional snow comes to an end by about 3am Monday morning.

Many areas in the Adirondacks southwestward to Syracuse, NY will see upwards of a foot of snow with many higher elevations close to 24" before all is said and done.

COMMENTS WELCOME!!
 
18z models rolling on in. Looking very similar to the previous ones.

Sharpen up your shovels in Michigan. Actually, northern Indiana looks to really get slammed too.

Hell, even Chicago's looking like they may get up to 7-8" on the south side. It seems that every run slows the storm just the slightest bit, adding some QPF accordingly.

Looks like even in my area of NW IL we'll receive a good 4-5" of snow, due to the very dry nature of the snow. (15:1). So far about one inch here as of 2pm.
 
Looks like the NAM has locked in its solution with the 18Z run, and the experimental NCEP WRF runs.

ALL of the models agree on over an inch of QPF for the snow area near IN, OH, and MI. The majority agree on amounts around 1.25 inches... and a few are showing +1.25 inch amounts.

I'm always a little concerned about dry slotting when systems wrap up and the heaviest snow area is predicted to be within the closed 500MB isoheight. The WRF shows the dry slot getting pretty close, cutting into northern OH... while the operational NAM keeps this a bit further southeast.

All-in-all, I'm still sticking with 12-18 inches southeast of a line from MBS to SBN, and northwest of a line from FWA to TOL. I think several areas will see closer to 18 inches, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 24 inch amount. If this were a general public forecast, I would tone it down and simply go with 12-18 inches until the system evolves further.

As for winds... 925MB winds pick up to 50-55knts in response to the rapid deepening and very tight pressure gradient. I suspect blizzard conditions will be more than met across much of the above area by 06-09Z SUN.
 
Sorry - I was referring to their snowfall amount forecast map, which I forgot was still an internal product.
 
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Based on LSR's so far, I think that Chicago hole was a mistake :>

Still expecting 6-10" Lansing, 8-12" Jackson south to the state line with horrible driving in the gusty north winds tomorrow... I'm thinking we'll avoid the blizzard conditions by not ramping them up until the snow slows.
 
I wonder if that hole over chicago was caused by the models warming the lower atmosphere too much because of Lake Michigan. Assuming of course that the HPC map was based on some computer projection. I would highly doubt a human would have hand drawn that forecast bust for Chicago.
 
With the dynamical nature of this storm and the influx of tropical moisture from Olga, a question came up in my mind. Is there any synoptic or mesoscale features I should look for in determining whether there may be thundersnow or thundersleet at a particular location? If so, what should I be looking for in the maps and models?
 
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