Brandon Smith
It's going to be interesting further east, particularly in my area east of the Blue Ridge Mountains and south of Harrisburg. From looking at several different model runs, it appears the bulk of precip we will receive will occur during the overnight hours on Saturday, through early morning on Sunday. The only downside to this is that there is a period of time during the precip when the temperatures on the ground and aloft will be warmed than 0 C, meaning rain. However, at least until 6Z, the temperatures will be below freezing on the ground, meaning we will have several hours of accumulating frozen precipitation before the slight change over to rain between 6Z and 12Z. The warm air appears that it won't stay around for long as the low deepens over Indiana and quickly kicks in the cold air on the backside of the front. Anything that falls on the backside of this system wrapping around from the low should fall as snow for us after the front passes through.
The DC, Baltimore and Philly areas will definitely have a change over to rain for an extended period of time. It appears the cold air will get quickly over-ridden at all heights.
One thing interesting is just the slightest track to the south would guarantee my area all ice, with no rain. I'll be keeping a close eye to see how far the warm air advances in front of the low and how far north the low tracks.
The DC, Baltimore and Philly areas will definitely have a change over to rain for an extended period of time. It appears the cold air will get quickly over-ridden at all heights.
One thing interesting is just the slightest track to the south would guarantee my area all ice, with no rain. I'll be keeping a close eye to see how far the warm air advances in front of the low and how far north the low tracks.