WINTER STORM FCST 12/14/07 - 12/17/07: SOUTHERN US - NORTHEAST US

[Brandon Smith]

I'm unsure how to label the states as I'm not sure where the freezing line is going to fall this weekend. *Mods, feel free to edit the title.*

It appears that a slight trough is going to get dug out in the west, starting the flow of colder than normal air out of Canada in the middle and eastern parts of the country. A low looks like it's going to develop across southern TX, moving it's way along the Gulf coast before turning more northeasterly. As this is happening, the cold air is really going to get drawn in towards the system, as the system begins to deepen late Saturday.

According to the GFS, it appears to be a classic nor'easter type setup. The low rapidly strengthens off the Delmarva Peninsula and rapidly moves along the New England coast. The freezing line, which in the DC area, usually plays havoc with where snow will fall, appears to be further to the south than usual.

As of now, it could be fairly nasty this weekend across the Mid-Atlanic and Northeast. I think the only issue we might be having besides track (which always plays a factor in these systems) is when the cold air will arrive. Sooner will be better than later as the air looks cold enough that when it comes, it will be sticking around for awhile. If it's too soon, it'll most likely mean all rain for the DC - Philly area and south from there.

As a word of warning, this is my first time starting one of these, so pardon me if my wording and weather knowledge is a bit off. I've been a long time lurker of the forum and don't have nearly as much meteorolgy knowledge as many do on here.

 

[Heidi Farrar]

I've been paying special attention to this one since I have family stretching from Maine to northern VA to western MD ... Just this afternoon I sent out an "unsolicited weather bulletin" alerting them to this situation. I have noticed the GFS being heavier-handed as far as precip intensity on 0Z Sunday all the way through 0Z Monday, at least on the last three runs. Surface temps so far are looking like this is going to be an all-snow event, and so if those precip models verify there could be much of the east coast, from DC to the Canadian border, dealing with over a foot of snow. It will definitely be interesting to watch how the WRF & GFS continue to handle this over the next few days ...

Not to forget, though, is that areas of PA & western MD could be dealing with this ice storm beginning tomorrow night and lasting for a day or so, depending on how the temperature situation works out. I think that there is defnintely a chance for a worst-case scenario playing out for some perhaps isolated areas, where there could be somewhat significant icing and then have 12+ inches of snow on top of that. Sounds like a mess, if nothing else!

 

[Mikey Gribble]

Wichita should get a little snow on Friday night. I am glad we are finally getting snow instead of sleet, ice, or rain. Anything but snow is a waste of a winter storm IMO. It's nothing major for us. Just a weak wave in zonal flow, but I'll take what I can get. I'm waiting for the NAM to pick up on this with the 00Z run before I do much forecasting, but right now I am thinking the southern most 3 or 4 counties in Kansas from Liberal all the way past Wichita should get a swath of 1 to 3 inches of snow. It should be a night time event and temperatures should be well below freezing, so there won't be any issues with melting. Anyways, I'm pumped. I'll do some forecasting tonight after the 00Z runs come out.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Been watching this one since it started showing up a few GFS runs ago. This has the potential to have it all - severe weather in the south, ice/sleet storm and/or flooding in the central Appalachians, and a major snow event/blizzard for the northeast. Too early to nail down specifics but one to keep an eye on.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

The track for the short wave coming through the southern plains has shifted South a bit with the 12Z run and I am not happy about it. We were the bullseye for snow accumulation in the last two runs, now central and northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas have the heaviest swath of snow. I'm surprised nobody is talking about this, especially the Oklahoma boys. It should be a pretty good snow storm for this part of the country. I am not sold on the new track that is farther South yet. I'll wait to check the other models and see if there is any continuity with tonight's runs on the track change. Everything is looking good for a decent snow event though. I wouldn't be surprised to see a swath of > 6 inches in northern half of Oklahoma into southern Kansas.

 

[BrianBaker]

Probably because most of us Oklahoma boys and girls don't have power. I am at work posting this. Will be interesting to see what happens.

 

[Jeff Miller]

http://rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs096hr_sfc_prcp.gif
http://rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs096hr_sfc_mslp.gif

Watch out, New England, that's all I can say right now on this one.

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

The last thing central OK needs right now is snow, especially "significant" amounts according to Norman NWS. I got power back yesterday after a 24 hour downtown, I was expecting at least 3 days of no power. Last night I thought I would go to Wal-mart to get something to drink, considering everything in my fridge smells really bad right now. From what I saw most of Norman doesnt have power, most restautrants were packed and the tree damage here is going to take weeks (at least) to clean up. You add a significant snow storm and this place will be a mess. I was going leave before friday to go to Texas, but I may wait around for this one. If Norman gets a decent snow storm out of this, the bubble is definitely broke or atleast has a crack finally.

 

[Robert Dewey]

There's a pretty big spread in regards to this system... The threat area looks pretty large and probably won't be refined until things come into agreement. Right now, everything from the southern Plains through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast have a pretty equal shot at seeing some decent snows.

GFS supports a more eastern solution, while the latest GGEM would support a Great Lakes to Northeast transition of some fairly substantial snows.

The latest NAM supports the latter with it's slower and further southwest solution.

 

[Chad Cowan]

This system has the potential to be a huge snow producer in the Northeast. The one saving grace could be the quick progression without a major high to hold the storm in place once it bombs out. Even with that, there is still the possiblitiy this storm could dump more than a foot over a wide area.

 

[Brandon Smith]

One thing I did notice while at work today were the number of seagulls that were situated inland. From living through a couple of other nor'easters and coastal storms, I have always seen shore birds (like seagulls) move their way inland in advance of a major system. Even though a system may not play out as large inland, any type of coastal storm storm will seem to bring them in at least a week prior. It almost seems like they can sense the pattern changing and begin to prepare.

The LWX and CCX forecast offices seem to have temperatures hovering right around the freezing mark during the day on Saturday and Sunday, with temperature in the mid 20's during the night. From the models, it appears that there is going to be a punch of colder air right before the sytem begins to bomb out along the coast. The timing of this cold air might play havoc with whether the mid-atlantic will see snow, ice, or rain. Right now, temperatures are in the 50's, with a slight cool down tomorrow, followed by a rebound. Should be interesting to see when the cold air will begin to settle in on Saturday.

 

[John Olexa]

Thats what were looking at here in MD this weekend. A real Smorgishboard of weather LOL

 

[B Ozanne]

Meanwhile we need to get through the current winter storm warning before we get to this weekend's storm.

We're looking at 4-8" in southern CT on Thursday with heavy snow warnings about 15 miles inland. Its still fairly warm here but dewpoints have fallen into the 20's.

 

[Brandon Smith]

From my experience, you usually get a secondary low developing to the west or southwest of the main low, which really gets the precipitation forming. Do the models typically pick up this formation or do they lump both of the lows together?

 

[Patrick Martin]

It's usually the development of the coastal low which turns the winds SE/E/NE (depending on where you are in new england) and pumps in copious amounts of moisture off the Atlantic.

Current GFS develops the surface low off the Delaware coast, and tracks it over outter Cape Cod at which point pressures shown down to 989mb. I am anxciously waiting for it to come into better range of the WRF and hoping the low end up tracking just a tick further east which would bring heavier snow to my location, which will be northern CT. I fly into BDL Friday afternoon. Hoping to be in position to capture some good images.