WINTER STORM: 03/22-03/25: CO, WY, NE, KS

[Tony Laubach]

The system moving into the central Plains on Monday will have a nasty backside to it. Models are hinting at the potential for a hefty snowstorm for the front range of the Rockies from Wyoming south into Colorado. The track of the low will ultimately dictate who sees the brunt of the snow, and some indications are that could be Denver.

The models are wanting to deepen and dig the low a bit further south than what's been forecasted for this the last couple of days. They are showing this nearly vertically stacked low crusing through eastern into southeastern Colorado, bringing strong upslope flow through 500mb to the front range and generating a couple inches of liquid.

If temperatures get cold enough with this system, that could translate to a couple feet of snow for some areas along the front range. While the duration won't be that of March 2003, the slow movement of this system combined with strong upslope flow could lead to a fairly long period of moderate to heavy snows.

A track of a few hundred miles will make a huge difference, and with the models showing the low in central Colorado right now, some much needed moisture will makes its way into the region, but the cold air and heavier precip will stay north into Wyoming. However, if the system digs a bit further south, its a whole new ballgame.

Its going to be a busy forecast on both sides of this thing!

 

[Patrick Martin]

Indeed! I noticed the same, and also see that BOU mentioned in this afternoons AFD the possibility of a winter storm watch being needed by the weekend. I for one would love get a good snow dump, we really need the moisture!

 

[John Hudson]

I'll also be watching this one, as it carries the possibility for significant snow accumulations for the Dakotas and areas north.

Since they're already piling sand bags up south of Winnipeg and at Grand Forks, we don't want any more snow, ATTM.


John
VE4 JTH

 

[Patrick Martin]

Well it appears that the chances for snow along the front range continue to evaporate with each successive model run. With a consensus that the low will track further northward through CO and into NE, decent precip chances are diminishing since we'll be under the influence of downsloping northwesterly flow as the low pulls away Monday into Tue. At least the mountains should get some decent snow to replenish some of the snowpack, but I sure would love some precip at lower elevations as it's been horribly dry since November.

 

[jshields]

i too have been watching this and it looks like western sd, eastern wyoming are going to really get nailed with the very strong trowal that sets up tomorrow and tuesday. blizzard warnings are issued and snowfall amounts are going to be very impressive! nw south dakota on the plains could get 16-24", with 8-20" in eastern wyoming, and in the northern black hills of s. dakota 30-40" are forecast due to the strong upslope flow. the towns of lead and deadwood, sd typically see even higher amounts. i think last year or maybe 2 years ago they received 70-80" of snow in a day and half! locations along the northern and eastern facing sides of the black hills could see wind gusts up to 65mph with 40-50 mph winds common elsewhere. i have a sister that lives in the black hills in spearfish, sd and i've told her to take some good pics for me!

 

[jshields]

i was just looking at some of the weather reports with this snowstorm as it has now mostly ended in western sd. there arent any official snowfall amounts yet, but i did find some amazing windgusts at the rapid city regional airport. if you read this in time, take a look at the winds speeds and how long those high wind speeds were ongoing by looking at the 3 day weather history here: http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KRAP.html
theres a 97 mph wind gust in there at 00:52 on the 24th

 

[Dan Cook]

Lead, SD 43.7 inches

I couldn't imaging getting that much snow in 1 storm.

 

[Scott Hammel]

They've been downgrading the potential accumulation here in CO all day. A few hours ago it was going to be 12-16 inches, and now it's 2-6 inches in the Denver metro area. We could always use the moisture but I really don't want to get snowed in at work

 

[Charles Kuster]

Moderate to heavy snow has been falling in Ft. Collins since early this morning. As of 7am, only about 2-3 inches had fallen, but that amount has risen since then. The most notable change in the last 20 minutes has been an increase in the wind (so far the max gust on campus has been 25mph). At times, the visibility has dropped to less than 200 feet. It is great to finally see moisture in this area.

Edit: Just realized I put this in the wrong thread. Mods please feel free to move it to the 3/27 winter storm discussion. Thanks!