What NWS products do you use while nowcasting/chasing?

[Rob H]

clarification - which text bulletins/messages from the NWS, aka. "products" do you use? I'm not looking for specific sites or any of that. I'm talking about the product types included in the URL at the bottom of this post. Thanks!

So what NWS products do people use while nowcasting/chasing and why do you find them useful? I know I like to read AFDs (Area Forecast Discussion) coming from WFOs in the target area, obviously LSRs (Local Storm Reports) can be useful.

Does anyone here ever use NOWs? SPSs? If you look at feeds of all products there is a lot of noise out there, and I'm trying to filter some of that down for personal use, but I'm wondering if I'm maybe missing anything useful.

Here's a handy list if you're not sure what something is called:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product_types.php?site=nws

 

[calvinkaskey]

I use that site for seeing if severe weather will occur in a few days or the day before, ie. their risk analysis. A lot of times the risk is higher than they show. I also look at cape.

 

[Rick Schmidt]

I find this page very useful, and use it almost exclusively with radar and satellite loops, after arriving in the target area. (on SPC site).


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=14#

 

[Rob H]

Thanks for the replies, but not really what I was looking for. Please see the clarification in my original post!

 

[Adam Lucio]

Ill read the AFDs sometimes but thats about it. I try and do most of the forecast work on my own, but the AFD is probably the best product to use if time is short and you want everything summed up on fly.

 

[John Fertsch]

I'll reference the IEMBot for my NWS area (BMX) for AFD, HWO and SWS if I'm not logged into NWSChat for up to the minute information while at the home, but while out and about spotting, i'll use the One Team to monitor NWS activity and use radarscope both on the iphone. I also have my 2 meter FT-1900 to scan with weather alert just incase i loose connectivity to the internet.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I run the IEMBot while chasing. Otherwise I basically just read the AFDs. OUN's HWO always goes fairly in-depth, so I'll occasionally read that, too.

 

[Brett Roberts]

I'll usually read AFDs during the days leading up, but not that often while actually out chasing. LSRs and PNSs sometimes, especially now that they're displayed in GR3v2.

 

[JamesCaruso]

In addition to the obvious SPC products (convective outlooks and MSDs), I like to read the AFDs as a last step in my forecasting/targeting process, in order to get a more detailed local assessment of the setup. I find this particularly useful when trying to choose between two or more potential target areas.

I sometimes check the local AFD for the area I am in late in the day, which I find particularly useful on a potential cap bust type of day. Anecdotally, I remember several times where the SPC talked up the threat of explosive storms if the cap could break, while the AFD seemed to imply (ultimately, rightly) that nothing was likely to happen.

 

[John Wetter]

I always read the AFD's when I'm out. Then it's mostly raw data for me. I then glance at the SPC outlooks for a final "yes that's in line with what I'm thinking" or "What are they/am I thinking?!?!" After that it's raw data from the various meso-analysis pages and sometimes the high resolution models like the HopWRF and HRRR.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Although it's converted to graphical form, I think it's the Area Forecast Matrices (AFM in the above list) that is the underlying product. That's actually pretty useful sometimes. Especially a 3 or 6 hour forecast of wind speed and direction for a specific point when there is a surface boundary involved that is key to your targeting. Seems basic, and it is, but I appreciate the granularity of it. I'm not sure how much human intervention is involved in this product, or whether it's just strictly automated based on model output.

Of course, I love reading the AFDs also. Amazing what a variety of styles the different forecasters use. Some can be quite colorful too, and the expressions of confidence (or lack thereof) are often telling. For example, the guys in our WFO seem to put a huge emphasis on the QPF.

 

[rdale]

NDFDs start from a model based forecast, but in the end are human touched. Unfortunately when conditions go out of whack, they are not automatically updated so you may be looking at a wind direction forecast made 5 hours ago which no longer applies.

 

[Mike Johnston]

NDFDs start from a model based forecast, but in the end are human touched. Unfortunately when conditions go out of whack, they are not automatically updated so you may be looking at a wind direction forecast made 5 hours ago which no longer applies.

Yeah, kind of wondered about how some of these more granular products are handled. Classic example is when you read through an AFD and see that the forecasted high temp is very conditional on the cloud cover then cloud cover develops one way or the other. I can see how they go in and adjust the high temp forecast for the day, but to what extent they go in and adjust the hourly forecast graph isn't always so clear.

 

[rdale]

You'd think they could write a script that see if METAR reports a temp of 52 and the forecast high was 42 that it'd update to at least 52 and flash an alert for the forecaster

 

[Cstok]

As others have stated I use the AFDs. As a side note I really like KDDC AFDs - seems like they are the most comprehensive and detailed... do others agree?