What Did You Learn?

[Danny Neal]

We all sit around the bar and discuss our war trophies, but do we ever discuss our failures? I am not talking about the days we all blue sky bust, I am talking about the days where we sit in Wedgeton and watch the live stream of a tornado near Conesville 150 miles away. Those days we drive away with our tails between our legs wimpering as 75% of the others out there are eating steak. My question I pose to you all is what did you learn? Why did you choose that particular target? Why did you fail? Let's discuss. We've all had those days. I'll post mine when I get home from work a little later on tonight. Right off the top of my head: May 19th, 2010.

 

[Dan Robinson]

One of my biggest failure tendencies is to abandon a well-thought-out target in response to a knee-jerk impulse to go after an early storm or another target. This cost me on November 17th last year. I expected one or two supercells on the southern end of the outbreak along I-64, traveling in an easier-to-chase easterly direction. This target was literally my living room at my apartment in New Baden. I ended up bailing for the first storm to initiate that tracked toward Litchfield, IL, catching it there. As I made the futile jaunt east for subsequent storms, I watched hopelessly as several tornadoes occurred in my original target area. The closest was at Breese, 9 miles away from home, and the New Minden EF4, just 24 miles to the east of my apartment.

Another was this June 3, when I nailed the forecast of an early tornadic supercell on the warm front in NW Missouri. I arrived several hours early, too. But where was I when the storm finally started producing? Not there! Instead, I had altered my plans and made the extra multiple-hour drive to the triple point in Nebraska with everyone else, lured by its parameter insanity.

The impulse to react against your original forecast is always strong, even after it burns me time and time again. Not that sticking to your target won't cost you sometimes (and sometimes your forecast is wrong). And occasionally, adjustments or even an abandonment of an original target is warranted after careful analysis of a changing environment. But more often than not, when I make those last-minute changes, they are not supported by the same level of forecasting rigor as my original, and my chase suffers.

 

[Royce Sheibal]

This year: 5/11/14 Beaver Crossing, NE Tornado. Aimed too far southeast, ended up getting to the party late. Made it to the SE quadrant right as the storm became fully rain wrapped. The photos and videos didn't turn out at all. 5 Minutes Later the convoy from Kansas shows up and traffic becomes a PITA. Chase the storm all the way to Omaha but its basically impossible to photo.
Lesson Learned: It's okey to go against your forecast and chase TOGIT. Also HP's Suck.
This year: 6/16/14, 6/17/14, 6/18/14 Three Days of F4's in NE,SD. Had to work all three days. Had forecasted the Pilger tornadoes like a boss two days ahead here on stormtrack.
Lesson Learned: Work is bad for chasing.
2008: June 4th, Ulysses, NE. Got off of work, picked up wife, headed to best cell in the line. Got out ahead of the storm in SE quad, looked good. Storm built SE right ontop of us, funnel set down within 100 yards within seconds. Booked it west through the bear cage. Headed south to see a ton of damage along path and a bunch of other chasers videotaping me driving out like an idiot. Wife was not happy. Ended up being three vortexes at once, most of which I missed whilst running away.
Lesson Learned: Multi-Vortex Tornadoes are scary.

 

[Jeff Duda]

18 May 2013: my "homeward bias" (i.e., my tendency to want to chase closer to home rather than farther away from home) cost me the Rozel, KS tornado. While the atmosphere wasn't clearly pointing to that storm as being the one to chase, I was fixated on the dryline to the SW in the OK PH. Once I saw storms go there I was convinced those were the ones worth chasing. Had I checked to verify that they had formed BEHIND the dryline (rather than on or ahead of it), I would've been able to anticipate they would be high based and outflow dominant. Would I have still gone after the Rozel storm? I don't know. It would've taken me farther away, and I hate being dragged farther away from home especially late in the day when nothing is a given anymore.

19 May 2013: I don't really know why storms failed to fire along the dryline between Guthrie and just south of the KS-OK border, but they didn't. I was sitting right in the middle of that space, near Enid. My "homeward bias" did not get me this day since I drove NORTH towards Wichita to go after storms that had become supercellular and tornadic in far S KS and new development was occurring on the south end of that complex. This was about 20-30 minutes before the storm that had just gone up near OKC finally decided to get its act together. Figured bailing and flying south on I-35 to try to catch that would land us with absolutely nothing, so we stayed near the KS-OK border. Did see a tornado near South Haven, but missed the fun within 30 miles of home.

20 May 2013: Went after the first storm that established itself. It developed near Lawton and headed straight for me. Went to Purcell to wait it out, then decided to pursue further SW as it looked better. Then the Moore storm developed just to my north. Decided not to go after it since it was headed into the OKC metro area, and I refuse to chase storms going into the OKC metro area. Guess I overlooked the boundary collision near storm initiation that day.

24 May 2011: left too late to get down into OK from IA. Also figured storms would develop farther north along the dryline than they did. Was wrong about that, and wrong about storms not developing along the warm front farther west in KS. "Field goal" bust.

One big lesson I overlook many times is

The best mix of ingredients is not necessarily the best area to target: any region in which the environment is supportive, even if only marginally, of supercells and tornadoes is still worth chasing. Don't overlook storms that go up somewhere else than your target area. If the environment they go up in is supportive of supercells and tornadoes, they're worth chasing.

 

[John Olexa]

When photographing lightning, I would be pointing my camera in the direction I thought was right, which in most cases was right. Sometimes though if there was a lull and I would see flashes behind me. I'd think maybe I should move to that direction, almost every time I did ( and I know you see where I'm going) I would miss a good /great strike. I do move a little with time keeping in the direction with the storm but now I resist that temptation to completely change direction and stay with my gut instinct until a fair amount of time has passed.

 

[Mark Blue]

June 17, 2010 - Danny should recognize that date! He was in Wedgeburg in southern MN with the Albert Lea tornado bagging a beautiful photo, while we were up north playing terminal catch up on the Wadena EF-4. What I learned is do not drive to a distant, marginal target the day before the better chase day and put yourself too far out of position. When we met the Dominator on the highway going into Wadena and they were heading the opposite direction, I knew it was all over but the cryin'.

 

[Mike Marz]

August 24th, 2014. Picked the correct target area, a pretty easy forecast, and got there a few hours early. Even the SPC put out a MD that basically said "if you are a chaser, you want to be here".... for some reason we got anxious and decided to leave the target area to go after a storm over an hour away, and in bad terrain. Still not sure WTF I was thinking. Our target area blew up 45 minutes later and we were 15 minutes late to the tornado that occurred literally a few miles from where we sat all afternoon waiting for initiation. Like others, I learned not to abandon a target area. But then again... next time we will sit in our target area, and a storm will produce an hour away that we could have made it to, while our target busts. So... I guess that is what makes chasing fun, or what makes it drive us crazy at times.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Dan Robinsons issue is one that still gets me in chasing.

Probably the biggest, recent example is April 14th 2012. My target the whole time was Salina (we all know that target verified!) However en route I let myself get baited west of Greensburg by that first supercell that went up and had "the shape" to it on radar, along with an SPC MD that highlighted that area as the likely spot for strong tornadoes. Original target abandoned at that point. What followed was one of the most agonizing chases of my life, stair stepping numerous supercells only catching a couple brief dust whirl tornadoes while the storms we would end up letting go went on to produce big tornadoes an hour later. Meanwhile, storms in Oklahoma also were going bonkers while ours in the middle struggled.

Why? This drove me nuts. After going over the event many times and studying it I came to the conlusion that the storms we were on in the "middle" of the target zone were getting sheared apart in the low levels. They didnt produce until they got further north away from us becuase they had the added helicity from the warm front. The storms to our south were able to produce because they had the influence from the strengthening LLJ earlier in the day. Once that LLJ reached us in our middle busting ground, we finally started seeing tornadoes at dusk and into the night. A consolation prize to somewhat save the day, but looking back it is still one of my most frustrating.

I definitely learned on a setup like that to either stick with warm front helicity, or greater instability/quicker LLJ influence. Do not drive around in circles in the middle where two major components are lacking. Had I stuck to my orginal target of Salina the day would have gone much better.

But thats chasing....its very hard not to get baited to a particular storm on an enhanced high risk day.

 

[Brett Roberts]

After almost a decade of chasing, there's a yin for almost every yang. For every time I targeted the dryline and watched the warm front light up, the opposite happened. There are only two areas where I've found a consistent bias that has cost me:

1. I leave "too early" far more often than I leave too late. I can count on one hand the number of cases where I missed a good tornado because I physically could not make it from the time I left home (or the motel); on the other hand, I've left early and gotten antsy (or headed to the wrong target region on data that would've changed a couple hours later) more times than I can count. I know the real solution to this problem is entirely psychological; I just need to be more patient and resist the urge to always be on the move. But I've actually made a slight effort not to leave too early in recent years simply because I know I'm so prone to that temptation.

2. I've messed up literally every single major tornado event occurring within 20 mi. of Norman since I started chasing. The reason is something Jeff Duda mentioned: I refuse to chase the OKC metro if there's any other option at all. For a typical I-35 setup in Oklahoma, I will hedge either S of Purcell or N of Guthrie every single time. And for whatever reason, over the past 5-6 years, significant tornadoes have occurred almost exclusively between Purcell and Guthrie in such setups. The only exception was 5/24/11, which I did fairly well on, but those storms were displaced a bit to the W of I-35 which allowed me to justify staying close to I-40 -- and, what do you know, that's where most of the action went down yet again.

 

[John Farley]

I think my biggest source of failure is poor road choices or impulsive decisions when I am basically in the right target area. A prime example is April 19, 2011, but I could name lots of others. I was targeting central IL, basically west of I-55 between Edwardsville and Springfield. As an intense supercell approached White Hall, IL in my target area, I decided to charge west to get a good view of it across the Illinois River flats, instead of just waiting for it. I stupidly ventured into an area with a poor road network to get the best view of the approaching storm, and ended up getting overtaken and playing catch-up and missing any decent view of the Girard tornado that the storm I was chasing produced. Had I just waited around White Hall, I could have easily stayed ahead of the storm and had a good view of the tornado, and/or perhaps dropped down to the next storm south that produced the Litchfield tornado. On May 24 of the same year, probably overcorrecting for this failure, I laid back too long worrying about not letting the storm get by me and missed the Canton, OK tornado - again I was on the storm but in the wrong position to see the tornado. And much the same again on May 19, 2013 near the OK/KS state line - I was on the tornadic storm, but poor road choice/positioning kept me from seeing the tornado. I did not mind that so much since I had played Rozel almost perfectly the day before, but poor road choices/positioning decisions probably are the biggest thing that have cost me good tornadoes over the years.

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

Are there lesson from every chase? Yes. Do I learn from them? Rarely.

The homeward bias has burned me way too many times, but "Blue Sky" busting in NE after driving all day from TX might be the cause of my homeward bias. Marcus Diaz with with me for a few of those. I have had some incredible bad luck ever since 5-22-10 (Bowdle). My last daytime condesation funnel touching the ground was March 18, 2012 (it has been way too long for me) and nearly botched that day targeting Pampa. If something goes horrible wrong 1 chase, I will try the opposite on the next only to get burned again.

May 5, 2007 - I had a great chase this day, but would love a do-over. Should have targeted around I-40. I thought I was targeting the tail-end charlie area near Woodward where I started my day, which was the southern end of the High and Mod risk areas. By the end of the day I was in the middle of the high risk. Saw some great tornadoes, but the amount of stress that day was horrible. If anyone remembers the the scene from Storm Chasers that year as the TIV is intercepting a multi vortex in the dark near St John that day, well I have video of the TIV passing me moving in to intercept. At the time I was puzzled why the TIV was moving south there, but it is very clear after the fact. i thought we were south of the old circulation path. I was wrong. Moments later in my video you hear me ask, "what is that sound?". It took me about 5 seconds to put the pieces together and get the hell out of there. There were many other chasers sitting though, so it was not an obvious danger zone. Between the lack of data at that moment, the darkness, and assuming the storm's path, I nearly took a direct hit at night. That is one lesson I did (sort-of) learned. Dont assume the path on High Risk days.

Trying to catch tail-end charlie has been a real pain over the years for me. May 23, 2008 I nailed it. Other days, not so much. Learned that lesson from May 5, 2007. April 14, 2012, I had forgot what I learned 5 years before.

April 14, 2012 - For whatever reason I went right for the core risk area like many others. Got on the first storm near Greensburg. For the life of me, I dont know why we kept playing with those inbetween storms on our way to OK. Ran into Brett Roberts as the Greensburg storm blasted NE and we decided to bail towards OK. We had some road issues and ended splitting up. He got some incredible daytime tornadoes and I got nighttime silhouettes of wedges after the storm made it into KS. That day still burns. I made it point to make sure I stick to the tail-end on big days after that... again. Then came Rozel.

May 18, 2013 - I set out for a couple day chasecation that would end after 1 day. Targeted near the Protection, KS area. Ran into a number of other chasers all banking on tail-end charlie as well. Ran into a lot more at Pizza Hut in Alva after the day was done too. The day was kinda of a mess of towers going up all over the dryline, which to me screams to stay on the tail-end even more. I have timelapse video of all the towers going up, one which I think is the Rozel tower. Needless to say I stayed near the OK/KS border and had nothing to show except a few new dents. I was so frustrated after the chase, by the time I got down to I-40 at about 1 am, I just turned west and went home. If I trusted the models more, I would have targeted OKC. Not that I want to chase near a metro, but after the way the 18th went I was not going to get burned on the tail-end target again. So I went home and missed Shawnee. I had work Monday, so getting home at 2 in morning Monday was not very appealing either.

May 10, 2010 - Leading up to this day, I was stressing dont play around by getting in the path of 50mph storms on a high risk day. I didnt take my own advice. I was playing around on Highway 11, south of Wakita. I had got out in front of the crowds, but didnt want to get stuck behind them again. I ventured a mile north of 11 on the great grid dirt roads that are up there. This decision, which went against my own advice, put me in the bears cage of what would soon be a wedge near Medford. I had already seen softball size hail from this storm earlier, so driving into the core wasnt an option either. I was at least in my Jeep Cherokee 4x4. I blasted east and the only thing that probably got me out of there was the V8 in that Jeep. The trees you see in my video that I stop by were shreaded the next day (I have damage photos posted - here). I was pretty flustered afterwards. I couldnt see any direction but forwards, so I had no idea what was behind me. This day lead to me creating my own dome cam, which I have not used in a while now, but was great at giving me as a solo chaser as a view in any direction. I also swore not drive into the path of any more tornadoes... but I did it again just 2 days later in Western OK. Thought it was the foward flank, but I was wrong. I never saw this tube, but I did see the ground circulation while I was in the rain. Got some funny test messages right after that as my SN icon was right under multiple tornado reports. I took a risk that I could beat the storm across the highway headed south based on older radar date. I thought I had beat it and the circulation was still a good was SW of there. I was wrong.

Summary: What are the lessons from all these stories?
STAY SOUTH - (tail-end charlie or nothing) on big Mod or High Risk days - Rozel days will happen, where the middle ground pays off. More often than not, the southern end is where the photogenic tornado is. Every forecast is unique but the Southern Plains seems pretty consistent on the high end days. The stouthern end - Generally higher base, slower moving, less HP = Photogenic.
EVERY DAY IS A NEW DAY - Dont let the previous days failures or bad luck effect the next day. Busted hard the day before Bowdle, on our way up to SD and almost backed out of chasing 5-22-10. My negativity was running over from the previous day and was effecting my reasoning. Big reason I missed May 19, 2013 near Shawnee.
STAY AWARE - day or night stay aware of where you are. The smallest miscalculation can have really bad results. If it is questionable, err on the side of caution, always. Stick with your gut and any guidelines you set for yourself before the chase.

 

[JamesCaruso]

My mistakes are too numerous to list, and I suppose I have not learned much of anything since I still keep making them! But a lot of times there is no lesson, things could have gone either way - for example, as others have mentioned, staying with an original target too long can turn out as badly as abandoning it too soon. But I do think it is better to err on the side of sticking with your target, for the reason Dan stated: sudden decisions are not likely to be supported by the same level of forecasting rigor as the original target, which likely took hours to determine.

Anyway, 2013 was a particularly bad series of misadventures for me. There were plenty of others dating back to my 1999 start, but 2013 is still an open wound that 2014 did nothing to heal. May 18-20 2013 were all bad for me, like for Jeff, and I feel slightly comforted knowing even a chaser like him could come up empty on those three days.

On May 18, I was in the right target area but went after the first storm that was a bit north. I really didn't consider it to be far enough away to be "out of my target area," but it did move quickly north and I certainly followed it out of my target area. I also ignored the radar image of the better, southern Storm, not wanting to waste time bouncing around from storm to storm. It was the Rozel storm that went right through the place I had been earlier... Lessons: be willing to abandon a storm. And be more patient, don't commit too soon to the first storm even if it is in or near the target area.

On May 19, like Jeff I was near Enid, wondering why I was between development near Wichita and near OKC, but wanting to apply the lesson of the previous day, remain patient and hold my ground. Missed Shawnee and caught up with storms near Drumright where each died in succession. Lesson: "being patient" is not a license to ignore a sky that is clearly drying out. Still wish I knew for sure what happened meteorologically, and whether the original forecast was off or if something changed...

On May 20, I thought I was properly identifying the triple point to be in SW OK near the Red River, and SPC's MCD seemed to confirm this. I ignored the echo that became the Moore storm and ended up seeing nothing on the Bray/Duncan storm. I guess the lesson here is to look more carefully at the data, because in the post mortem I could see that the triple point was in fact further north than I had analyzed it to be...

But unlike Jeff, my bad decisions did not end there.

On 5/26/13 we had booked hotel rooms early because of Memorial Day Weekend. We called off our chase in Nebraska under a blue sky at about 6:00 to make the 3-hour drive back to Hays KS, and missed the gorgeous Nebraska LP. Lesson: don't give up (and don't prioritize hotel rooms over storms??)

Then I missed Salina on 5/28 because I had been focusing on southwest KS and the TX PH for two days and ignored that area (despite starting the day near there!) I even ignored SPC because the applicable paragraph heading included the MO and MS Valleys, so I'm thinking to myself, "I'm not going that far east..." Lesson: look at the whole forecast without bias to the area you were thinking of the day before. And read the whole SPC outlook for exactly that reason - in case you missed something!

Then on 5/30/13 I am FINALLY on a tornadic supercell near Kingfisher/Guthrie OK, proud of several decisions I made picking the right storm, but I get too overconfident on the dirt roads and slip in the mud, off into a deep rut. We wait 90 minutes to get pulled out, chase over.

Last, on 5/31, I am scheduled to fly home but could stay an extra day to chase what would become El Reno. It would have been inconvenient to stay, and I risked missing a family commitment, but it could have been done. That was the exact type of day you do what it takes. But that's hindsight, who really knew for certain what would happen? How many good setups ultimately go bust? The 13z SPC outlook was already hedging compared to the overnight one... Plus my bad luck and bad mood... So I left... Lesson: again, don't give up, especially when the next chance to chase is a year away...

The problem is that all of this is hindsight. Certain decisions could have gone either way. The odds of a great event are relatively small, after all, and we all have our own thresholds and cost/benefit ratios for how much we are willing to do for a small chance of success - for example, those that are biased toward close-to-home targets. Or people like me who might prioritize (at least on a marginal day) a good meal and nice hotel room versus potentially having no meal, room OR storm... As such, this relates to the question / thread "how hardcore are you?", which I posted earlier this year...

Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah and Happy New Year all !!!

Jim

 

[Skip Talbot]

These are my lessons learned from chase logs just this year through June 17. Many of them are from busts:

• Don't forget to use your telephoto lens for those distant tornado shots.
• You can see tornadoes even with patches of snow still on the ground.
• It's never a bust with friends and fun.
• You can eat vegan in small towns on the Great Plains.
• Supercells in an environment not favorable for tornadoes can still be extremely photogenic and make a chase day.
• Populated areas in bad terrain can still offer great views of the sky if you can find an elevated and open position.
• Intercepting a dramatic gust front on a tornado warned QLCS can be just as exciting as a tornado intercept.
• Forecast cap strength may be off even 12 hours before the event.
• Make the most of your cap busts.
• Never chase western or central Arkansas.
• Last minute airmass recovery can salvage your original target.
• Don't push to make your next day's target with a dangerous drive at night through flooded areas.
• Interstate interchanges and bridges are some of the few places to get a view when chasing the Deep South.
• Chasing on southern interstates requires extra caution, escape route planning and execution time to avoid incidents due to low visibility.
• Earlier storms can ruin a favorably sheared warm sector play by weakening the lapse rates.
• Your tornado chances are minimal if your storms pop on and quickly move north of the warm front.
• Worked over air and lack of gradual backing near the warm front can ruin a tornado play.
• Be observant of boundary placement relative to your storm so you don't wind up chasing an elevated supercell while cells to the east produce.
• Don't core punch the RFD on a large tornadic HP.
• Be ready to take an escape route directly away from the tornado, which does not cross its path, when playing the inflow notch on an HP.
• Watch out for Illinois spotters reporting shelf clouds as wall clouds and setting up tripods on the interstate.
• Stay on the main roads when chasing slow moving storms in Colorado.
• Avoid Denver when stopping for the night: it's too crowded, expensive, and vulnerable to vandals.
• The area around the Denver airport provides great views in all directions, but bring a telephoto lens.
• The customer often has the most say in the deserted towns of the plains.
• Move in closer to the higher terrain when targeting the New Mexico upslope to be closer for initiation.
• Get off the interstate and stay in the small towns off the beaten path.
• The sparse roads of New Mexico and flooded desert creeks can keep you miles out from your storm.
• You're never out of place in Roswell, NM when you've got bizarre storm chasing equipment mounted to the roof of your vehicle.
• Keep your cameras and gear in the vehicle until you are absolutely sure you are done for the night, because you never know what you might miss otherwise.
• Even after multiple failed attempts at initiation, photogenic elevated supercells can still go up in a capped environment when the boundary layer cools.
• South of I-20 the sparse roads and hilly terrain become unfavorable for chasing.
• Avoid chaser convergences and keep driving if there's only an HP gust front to work with.
• Make sure you're well downstream when intercepting a tornado warned MCS so as not to get caught in the gust front and traffic to the south.
• Smaller and unwarmed cells coming off high terrain to the west can be better chase intercepts than the larger, meaner yet crowded and low visibility storms in the eastern warm sector.
• It's possible for low topped, unwarned cells with less than 40 dbz radar returns to present supercell structure, wall clouds, funnels, and even small tornadoes.
• Double check your funnel cloud shots for ground contact before reporting tornadoes, or just leave the report as a funnel.
• Thick fog might actually mean you're driving into the cloud mass of the storm.
• Don't neglect the cold front if there is favorable shear, discrete and robust cells, and your warm sector target is failing to organize.
• Devil's Tower can make a great foreground element for storm shots, but it's difficult to get to and maneuver around when chasing a specific cell.
• Avoid the winding highways of the Black Hills as they are slow and offer few views, and instead wait for the storm in more open terrain.
• Don't brush off the nocturnal play, even if it's forecast to be capped, if you're looking to get any shot of a tornado.
• Top off on fuel before you depart through remote portions of the plains.
• Don't waste any time getting to your target storm once it's going up.
• Keep your head on a swivel for new tornado developments, even if there are already multiple tornadoes on the ground.
• Give respect and consideration to those in the path, and help out when and where you can.
• Double check storm motion to make sure you're not too far downstream and out of position on slow moving or nearly stationary storms.
• Make ample time to cross and maneuver around the Vermillion, SD Missouri River crossing.

 

[JamesCaruso]

These are my lessons learned from chase logs just this year through June 17. Many of them are from busts:

• Even after multiple failed attempts at initiation, photogenic elevated supercells can still go up in a capped environment when the boundary layer cools.
• 
  
  Hey Skip, awesome list, enjoyed reading it! Not to go off on a tangent, but can you explain the one point I excerpted above? I know that when the boundary layer cools it can be favorable for tornado formation because the temp/dewpoint spread lowers (as does the LCL), but how is a cooler boundary layer going to help overcome a cap for initiation? Feel free to respond privately so we don't go off-topic.
  
  Thanks!
  
  Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

[joel ewing]

Every time I chase I score....and usually multiple tornadoes. Plus, I'm saving up for a camera to record all my chases.