What could have happened on 4-10-08

[STurner]

I remember a few days before this muassive tornado was supposed to occur and Dr. Greg Forbes saying i

 

[STurner]

Can you eliminate this thread for some reason my computer is acting up?

 

[Adam Lucio]

Actually this could be an interesting topic. On my chase log for the day I refered to it as "the great bust of 08." This was supposed to be an armageddon setup that even SPC talked about going to HIGH risk on the day 2 and the whole thing just crapped out.

I chased this day and my target area saw some tornadoes, but nowhere near what was progged in the many days leading up to the event. There was allot of excitment and hype on this board and across NFOs in the areas to be affected.

I know lack of instibility and morning crapvection put a major damper on things...but there was more at work. I never did any analysis on the event...as im not too good at figuring out why storms DIDNT happen...I mainly focus on forecasting...tho Id like to start getting into some post event analysis.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Actually this could be an interesting topic. On my chase log for the day I refered to it as "the great bust of 08." This was supposed to be an armageddon setup that even SPC talked about going to HIGH risk on the day 2 and the whole thing just crapped out.

I chased this day and my target area saw some tornadoes, but nowhere near what was progged in the many days leading up to the event. There was allot of excitment and hype on this board and across NFOs in the areas to be affected.

I know lack of instibility and morning crapvection put a major damper on things...but there was more at work. I never did any analysis on the event...as im not too good at figuring out why storms DIDNT happen...I mainly focus on forecasting...tho Id like to start getting into some post event analysis.

Yes,I remember...Someone made some comparison with 74'outbreak since the system was very impressive and because of the similar Oni index pattern.
The surface analysis showed a typical pattern to have Iowa tornadoes even if the thermodynamic field is quite marginal. I would have seen what would it be with 2000 J/Kg of cape, spread along the territory.

 

[STurner]

Yes, this is what this thread was supposed to be about. I dont know if it would have been comparable to the Super Outbreak if it would have verified. I dont know much about CAPE, LLC's, wind shear, LLJ, low/mid-level lapse rates, and helicity values etc. but wonder if it would have verified could it have been very dangerous. Even if this tornado outbreak would have verified and had half the very strong/violent tornadoes of the Super Outbreak it would have been phenomenol. That would include 18 EF3's, 12 EF4,s, and 3 EF5's. I think the Super Outbreak had 35 F3's, 24 F4's, and 6 F5's. My computer is still acting up as well.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

You get the same kind of hype every year with a system. I remember the hype for the April 6, 2001 event which never transpired. The deep negative tilt trough with 70-100kt 500mb winds and 100-130kt 300mb winds got a lot of hype. Two things killed the tornado potential this day....limited surface heating due to extensive cirrus canopy ahead of approaching system and excessive linear forcing promoted squall line development versus supercell development. The trough was so deep the mid-level flow was nearly meridional and was nearly parallel to the coldfront/dryline. It was a dissapointing day.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I remember this day--not the date, right offhand, but the "another Super Outbreak" hype. My mates and I drove 1,800 miles nonstop down to the bootheel and on into Arkansas and then back up to Michigan. This setup was given a ton of hype; if even a quarter of that spin could have been transferred to the clouds, we'd have come home happy, but instead, we busted big-time.

Ironically, the next day, I woke up, booted my computer, pulled up GR3, and saw a beautiful supercell making a beeline for my apartment.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

Bob - I fell for it like you, only I didn't stop in the bootheel, and made it all the way to I-40, then drove all night to get back home. The southern target in AR ended up with 850 winds from the WSW instead of from the south like they were forecasted the previous night. The morning convection seemingly killed everything as well.

Best display of wall clouds I've ever seen.

I drove home all night and got back to my apartment in Lansing around 8am, slept until 1 and then drove around at the cells that never really did develop the next day in Michigan.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Geeze, Ben, I sure know that story. Yeah, I remember now...those veering winds...aaaghh! Not just 850s, but surface winds, too. That's when we knew we'd been snookered. We didn't even get much in the way of wall clouds. They may have tried to form, but all the storms we were on seemed to get outflowy right away. Nothing like knowing that you not only drove all that way for a bust chase, but also that you've now got to drive back. Eeeccch!!