Weather Research Center out of Houston Texas 2007 forecast

[J Kinkaid]

http://www.wxresearch.org/press/2007huroutmar15.pdf

 

[Jake Hughes]

Kind of reminds me of AccuWx's forecast last year:

(Notice the one place where a hurricane did hit was in the "Low" area.)

 

[J Kinkaid]

Think that they mean 17 storms ?

 

[Shane Young]

Hey

So what makes them so interested specifically in the eastern Gulf I wonder?

Typical strike probability as provided by NHC: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G12.html

Honestly, what makes Georgia and NC so much more likely than Florida at this forecast time, I haven't a clue.

SST anomalies would be a guess as to their reasoning, http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/12wksst.html
But that shows that while there is a slight warm anomaly off Louisiana, anomalies of such size don't usually persist very long.

Last year had quite healthy sea-surface temperatures (2nd warmest on record in the basin I believe, behind 05) and below average shear, yet produced only an average year. Relating it to El Nino is a common thing to do, and that's fine, but it just goes to show that dynamically the setup can be there and nothing happen. And while a La Nina is forecast/appears to be emering, and a stronger LN becoming more likely, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_mar2006/ is all I have to say.
And still the question remains, why those regions???
Is there some weak statistical indicators by region?

Or you can play Accuweather, pick regions that'll generate concern/large attention, and forget about it before the season dies away. And, yes, it was hilarious to see Alberto getting hurricane warnings right here in the Florida Big Bend where they forecasted the lowest chances. (It never reached hurricane strength, though).

I have to stick with what Jim Leonard discussed a few threads back about the setup of trough/ridge patterns. In an NHC talk here last week, I believe the only dynamical (as opposed to statistical methods like ENSO) negative were in velocity potential anomaly and upper-level temperatures/stability. From my what weak attention I paid most of last tropical season, the SAL wasn't that big of a player (slightly more typical numbers of storms formed out towards the Cape Verdes than the surprisingly huge lack of storms out there in 05). While outbreaks occurred as in any year, I don't remember anything too overbearing. But like I said, didn't pay a TON of attention.

We'll see what happens. It looks like it'll be an active year with recent trends and the lack of El Nino, but no one can bet the farm on this.

Shane

 

[Shane Young]

I wouldn't take this forecast for much either. It does look like they actually mean 7, which is refreshing considering everyone is quite close to the Gray/NOAA predictions usually (makes me wonder how much of the forecast is statistics and how much subjective!).

They forecast apparently using sunspot cycles as well as global wave pattern apparently, modeled well into the future.

And here is what their report from 1999 claims:
"Meteorologist at the Center have been using the OCSI since 1985 to make annual hurricane outlooks. Before 1999, the only two years when a storm did not make landfall in the section of the coast with the highest risk were in 1987 and 1992. But like this year these years did have storms in the second highest at risk coast line. So for the last15 years that have been forecasted only three did not verify with the highest probability. There for 12 out 15 years did verify for 80% correct."

The problem is that that year, as this year, they forecasted the Al-La area highest. Based upon their own climatology values, strike is 60% likely in Al-La, and 70% likely in West Florida. And they obviously missed last year. And they beneficially don't have any results for the past 7 years available online. They appear to be well within the margin for error, and have not proven any skill as of yet in determining location.
A fact I would tend to believe most seasonal forecasts still trend towards.

Shane