Waterspout Forecasting

Joined
Jul 2, 2004
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1,781
Location
Hastings, Michigan
With waterspouts in the marine forecast for Lake Michigan last Saturday, I headed to the lakeshore with Kurt Hulst in the hopes of seeing a few. We didn't, leaving our personal waterspout intercept records of zero encounters untarnished, but the chase wasn't entirely fruitless. Hearing about it prompted my buddy Mike Kovalchick to send me this paper on waterspouts and the waterspout nomogram.

I'd read of the nomogram before but never knew what it was. It's an easy-to-understand and very useful chart that tells at a glance whether the lake environment is favorable for spouts. I extrapolated a few simple parameters from the nomogram; you can check them out in my blog.

Interestingly, the aforementioned paper goes beyond the usual categorization of waterspouts into mesocyclone and non-mesocyclone. It divides spouts into tornadic, upper low, lake breeze, and winter.

Just thought I'd toss this topic out for discussion, as the waterspout season is ramping up and offers a decent diversion for Great Lakes and coastal chasers when the Plains aren't lighting up.
 
My team is doing some research spout chasing for Environment Canada this year. Im hoping that a useful spout predictor tool will come of it. I'll keep you posted on developments.
 
Steve, please do provide an update on your research, whether here on ST as a thread or as a PM. I'll be interested to hear about what you and your team are learning.

Are you in touch with Wade Szilagyi at Environment Canada? He's the guy who developed the waterspout nomogram, and has been researching Great Lakes waterspouts for fifteen years. I was surprised and pleased to receive a comment from him on my blog. Waterspouts are something I just never gave much thought to till lately, mainly because I thought they were rare on the Great Lakes. But it seems that they're more common than I'd thought. With the spout season at hand, I'm hoping to see one sometime yet this year, and hopefully to get some decent photos along with noting the conditions.
 
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