Watches or Warnings. Don't people know the difference?

[Allan Jeffers]

I was at work a couple weeks ago when Denver got a Tornado watch. I got the watch via weatherbug on my droid and with me being interested in this kind of stuff, I made it known to my co workers that we where under a tornado watch. Then I went outside to take a look at the clouds and see if anything was of interest and also five a heads up to my sister who was out side on her way home and to my mom and pop so the know to keep an eye out.

I went back in, and was asked if "it" was out there I said no, but there was a cell to the north west of us with some lightning. I also said it we where under a "watch"

A bit later comes break time but it was too late, I missed the cell did not do much, we got the edge of it. Nothing was produced, some some thunder, lightning and some rain. When I got back in, I said going out was a waste of time, I should have got food instead. I was asked if I got anything. Right now I am thinking "it" and "anything" actually means "tornado" thus, they where asking me if I seen the tornado I mentioned earlier when I said we where under a watch.

I then said NO, we are under a "watch" not a "warning" and continued stating that a "watch" means conditions are favorable for tornado developement and a "warning" means we better get our butts inside because a tornado could be forming.

I started to wonder if the general public knows the difference. Right now I don't think so.

 

[rdale]

No. Just last week the guest on Weatherbrains says he asks for a show of hands at every public talk he gives, and the number of people who know the difference always runs at about 50%.

As Dr Doswell mentioned - our system isn't perfect and could use improvement. But if you're going to improve it, you better have something 100% understandable, and such a beast is probably impossible.

We're already seeing a big change because people are now taking Tornado Warnings as a "localized tornado watch" and waiting for a Tornado Emergency to be issued.

 

[Elaine Spencer]

So two generations have passed since "watch" and "warning" were adopted in the wake of the Palm Sunday 1965 outbreak -- whose large death toll was in part due to public confusion over the older terminology of "tornado forecasts", "tornado alerts," and "severe weather bulletins" -- and people STILL don't know the difference? By now I suspect it's not a case of people not knowing the difference, so much as perhaps just not CARING about the difference because they are convinced "it can't happen here" or "it won't happen to me."

We're already seeing a big change because people are now taking Tornado Warnings as a "localized tornado watch" and waiting for a Tornado Emergency to be issued.


I don't see that happening where I live. However, our local NWS office (ILX) has never issued a tornado emergency, not even for Springfield on 3/12/06, and if they didn't do it that night I don't know that they ever will.

I have often wondered why ILX didn't issue a tornado emergency in that case, but perhaps it was precisely to avoid the kind of problem referred to here. They don't want people getting accustomed to thinking of tornado emergencies as the "really serious" warnings and "typical" tornado warnings as less serious.

 

[Jason Foster]

Confession: Even though I know the difference...I say the wrong thing all the time. But more like calling the dog the cats name and vice-versa. Sometimes I think folks to speak wrong. Otherwise I just tell people regardless to just be paying attention "today" and listen to radio/TV etc. If you have to explain it over and over, likely isn't going to sink in.

 

[Allan Jeffers]

While we are on the topic of tornado watches, I did make on observation the last time I was out side under a watch. The clouds had a different look to them, they moved and acted differently then clouds in a regular thunderstorm. Not sure how to discribe it. Anyone else notice this? The scud was of interest as I watched one scud cloud get sucked up into another larger cloud. This is the cloud that sucked up the scud:

 

[Chris Nuttall]

I run into this all the time, but it still never ceases to amaze me. I come across people that have lived in the Texas Panhandle their entire lives, and they still do not know the difference between a watch and a warning. I've come across these situations all over Tornado Alley.

Anytime the word "tornado" is used in any kind of alert, whether it's a watch or warning, I think people tend to automatically jump to the worst-case scenario in their thinking of the situation.

 

[Skip Talbot]

While we are on the topic of tornado watches, I did make on observation the last time I was out side under a watch. The clouds had a different look to them, they moved and acted differently then clouds in a regular thunderstorm. Not sure how to discribe it. Anyone else notice this? The scud was of interest as I watched one scud cloud get sucked up into another larger cloud. This is the cloud that sucked up the scud:

Your observation is quite interesting, not just because it underlines that there are usually different mechanisms at work in the atmosphere when watches are issued, but also because I believe it highlights a common spotter mentality that appears when a watch is issued. An environment marked by a tornado watch can have a lot of low level shear, and steep low level lapse rates. You can get a lot of rapid rising motion in the scud as well as rotation. But I also think people get into this mindset that when a watch has been issued they start actively looking for rotation/tornadoes, when they'd normally just dismiss a thunderstorm as generic. Every bit of scud and motion gets scrutinized, and at the first hint of rotation, people are eager to hit the button and report it. Whereas if you saw a storm with real rotation but there was no watch or warning, you'd stop and think, "Is that rotation?"

As for watches and warnings. A watch means conditions are favorable for the public to think that they are in a warning. A warning means that doppler radar or storm spotters have reported that a tornado exists over everyone inside of the warning. I don't even bother asking or correcting. Watch: "We were in a tornado warning for six hours last night!" Warning: "I was inside the tornado!"

 

[Scott Nelson]

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=24001
I was talking about this very same topic last week. I understand why changing the warnings vs. watch name this late in the game would only add to the confussion. But I agree... there is some confussion. I'm here on Storm Track because I'm interested in public safety. This is one of those issues worth fixing.

 

[Mike Smith]

Scott,

After spending more than four years researching and writing Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather, I can state with near total confidence that there is nothing to "fix."

Fact: The tornado death rate (deaths per million population) has been cut by 95%! We will never get to zero tornado deaths. Let me explain why. In the Greensburg tornado, eight of the nine people killed in the city were in shelter. The tornado ripped a guard rail off U.S. 54, threw it across the city, where it penetrated a roof and floor and impaled a woman, killing her. Whenever we are dealing with F4 and F5 tornadoes there will be some unfortunate deaths because of the strength of the storm we are dealing with.

Changing terminology and, especially, going to probabilistic warnings to "fix" the system is nearly guaranteed to wreck it.

You can find the full story here: www.amazon.com/Warnings-Story-Scien...=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1270000055&sr=1-1 and I respectfully suggest you read the history of the warning system and how it is so effective before recommending changes. It has taken us 50 years to educate people to achieve this scientific success. It will take us twice as long to re-educate people to a new system and lives will be lost in the process.

Mike

 

[John J. Holt]

I use the watch for warnings concept to teach people the difference. When a watch comes out it means the general public should be watching (ie tuned in to t.v. ,radio ect.)for a possible warning.

 

[Scott Nelson]

Mike,

Everyone is allowed their opinion on these various topics and that is the beauty of S.T. I'm not out to change things just to change them but rather give my voice to what I've seen first hand as others do on matters that mean something to them. As mentioned in my own post on this issue (sorry Allan for stepping on your thread here) if you ask children the difference between warnings and watch, very few seem to know what is what. This is not because the original 1965 inception of the storm speak words are specifically wrong but because as an instructor in 2010 I often see how "warnings" have been used in school as a way to change behavior. Kids don't react to it because it's over used empty threat! All that said, I do agree with another S.T. post in my own thread in which the writer mentions that once you add the word Tornado to watch OR warning, people tend to react the same and subsequently very few kids in a school are ever caught off guard. That's all I care about here. Eliminating confussion for the young ones to keep them safe. "IF" it needs to be looked at_ let's look at it. Let's not simply assume these terms are working because we think they are and some in the public domain are just dumb for not getting it.
Thanks,
Scott

 

[Mike Smith]

Scott,

I don't think you read my post closely enough. I spent four years RESEARCHING the book. I talked to -- literally -- hundreds of both users of the warning system and meteorologists that issue the warnings. I traveled to Norman and to Miami (NHC). In MIA, I interviewed four NHC meteorologists at length (took a full day) on this very topic (the warning system). Before you dismiss what I found, I think you should read the full story.

That said, children (e.g., seven year olds) don't make decisions to shelter or not. Those are made by their parents, day care providers or school administrators. There is plenty of time for children to learn about the warning system.

I'll say it again: The current warning system works remarkably well, much better than I realized five years ago before I began the project. It can be made better with more accuracy (i.e., fewer false alarms) but the structure of the warning system is fine the way it is given the current state-of-the-art.

Mike

 

[Rob H]

Scott, it also depends on where you live. Most people in MN don't understand the difference from what I can tell, so I can't imagine how it is in your part of the country. We had a surprise tornado that wasn't watched or warned (I'm not sure we were even in a Slight risk area) and went down I35/35W into downtown Minneapolis - and no one was even hurt. People around here watch for mention of hail and move their cars into the garage and that's about it. When a deadly storm like Hugo 2008 comes through people act surprised, and then forget about weather for a few years.

Go into the plains where the storms get truly dangerous and scary, and it's a different story. I had a local come up to me and say "Oh yeah, one of those PDS things is out today, huh? It will be a good storm then." He told me about the anti-cyclonic tornado he saw several years ago. He also figured he had about an hour or so to get home (which he did).

If weather doesn't drastically impact you on a continual basis there isn't as much motivation to keep track of "confusing" distinctions. I've been asked to talk to a group of 4th-graders about storms and maybe they can clue their parents in. Will I be discussing the distinction between watches and warnings? Definitely.

 

[Chris Nuttall]

I completely agree that it depends on the area of the country you are in. An area that is more prone to hazardous weather, meaning more watches and warnings, will probably have more people that understand the terminology versus an area that doesn't see a high frequency of hazardous weather. As far as what kids perceive a warning being, in my experience, the kids often have it right about the difference between a watch and a warning compared to adults. This is a direct result of the education and outreach effort that has occurred over the last 20-30 years.

 

[Kevin Walters]

People that live in areas where severe weather is fairly common probably have a better understanding of watches and warnings. Most people have little or no interest in weather other than wanting to know if it will rain tomorrow.