Bill Schintler
EF4
Winter weather forecast:
Light snow will develop along a New Ulm, MN to Prairie Du Chien, IA line by 6AM tomorrow. Little more then a dusting will result from this initial snowfall event. Through 6 PM, more significant snow will develop along a St. Cloud, MN to Eau Claire line. One to two inches of snowfall will be possible tomorrow evening in those areas. Meanwhile, the “main event†will move in from the west. Moderate to heavy snowfall will move into the southern half of MN by 3AM Friday morning. The snowfall will finally exit the area to the north east by 6AM Saturday.
Storm totals for the event between now and Saturday morning:
St. Cloud: 5â€-6â€
Minneapolis/St. Paul: 4â€-5â€
Heaviest snowfall axis: Wahpeton, MN through Baxter, MN: 10â€-12â€
Discussion:
A warm front will develop along the IA/MN border overnight. This feature will be responsible for some light snow starting early in the day tomorrow and lasting through tomorrow night. Friday through Saturday: stacked low pressure (closed all of the way up to 250mb) will track from Sioux Falls, SD to Duluth during this period. The storm will move very slowly and a TROWEL and deformation zone will set up through MN during the last part of Friday, further increasing the duration of this event. The surface system will rapidly weaken Friday evening through Saturday as it lifts off to the NE. Water to snow ratios should range from 1:8 in SERN MN through 15:1 north of a Milbank, MN to Duluth line. This will serve to keep snowfall totals a bit lighter in the south.
Guidance:
Confidence is low as models have not settled on a solution. In fact, the 18Z NAM places the low track 150 mi SE of the 12Z run. This has brought it closer to the 12Z GFS, ECMWF, NGM, and UKMET solutions.
- bill
Light snow will develop along a New Ulm, MN to Prairie Du Chien, IA line by 6AM tomorrow. Little more then a dusting will result from this initial snowfall event. Through 6 PM, more significant snow will develop along a St. Cloud, MN to Eau Claire line. One to two inches of snowfall will be possible tomorrow evening in those areas. Meanwhile, the “main event†will move in from the west. Moderate to heavy snowfall will move into the southern half of MN by 3AM Friday morning. The snowfall will finally exit the area to the north east by 6AM Saturday.
Storm totals for the event between now and Saturday morning:
St. Cloud: 5â€-6â€
Minneapolis/St. Paul: 4â€-5â€
Heaviest snowfall axis: Wahpeton, MN through Baxter, MN: 10â€-12â€
Discussion:
A warm front will develop along the IA/MN border overnight. This feature will be responsible for some light snow starting early in the day tomorrow and lasting through tomorrow night. Friday through Saturday: stacked low pressure (closed all of the way up to 250mb) will track from Sioux Falls, SD to Duluth during this period. The storm will move very slowly and a TROWEL and deformation zone will set up through MN during the last part of Friday, further increasing the duration of this event. The surface system will rapidly weaken Friday evening through Saturday as it lifts off to the NE. Water to snow ratios should range from 1:8 in SERN MN through 15:1 north of a Milbank, MN to Duluth line. This will serve to keep snowfall totals a bit lighter in the south.
Guidance:
Confidence is low as models have not settled on a solution. In fact, the 18Z NAM places the low track 150 mi SE of the 12Z run. This has brought it closer to the 12Z GFS, ECMWF, NGM, and UKMET solutions.
- bill
ssst:: Dan, that's a good thing. Bring on spring!
